War and Conflict Journal

Signs point to a possible U.S./NATO/Israeli war against Iran/Syria/Hezbollah in the near future.

Tensions between Israel and Syria escalated in early April as Israel conducts nation-wide civil defense drills simulating a domestic response to a potential Hezbollah/Syrian/Iranian attack with biological and chemical weapons. This drill comes amid continued Hezbollah threats to avenge the recent assassination of one of its leaders. Supposedly in response to Israel’s drill, Syria has put its military on alert.

In addition, Israel recently conducted a joint naval exercise with NATO forces in the Mediterranean Sea. France, Britain, Germany and other NATO nations, including the U.S. have been warning of Iran’s nuclear ambitions this past year.

It is widely assumed in the U.S. and throughout the world, that the Bush/Cheney Administration, unsure of John McCain’s chances of beating the Democrats for the White House, and unwilling to leave a potentially nuclear Iran to be dealt with by an Obama or Clinton administration, will do whatever it takes to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. As of April, 2008, only ten months remain for President Bush to act. Also, a preemptive war against Iran, if it goes well (a decidedly big IF), will likely boost Senator McCain’s chances against the presumed Clinton and/or Obama Democratic ticket in November.

The recent removal of Admiral Fallon, a critic of a potential Iran War, also clears the way within the military leadership for a fully-supported effort to exercise the will of the Commander-in-Chief.

Time will tell if this war scenario plays out, but the odds are heavily stacked in favor of a wider regional war pitting the Western allies (plus Israel) against Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah.

Links and Sources:

Syria Plans Emergency Drill amid Fears of War with Israel–Voice of America, April 9, 2008

Israeli intel projects a one-month war with Syria–World Tribune.com, April 9, 2008

US Military Strike set on Iran? by W. Joseph Stroupe of the International Analyst Network, April 7, 2008

Palestinians Die in Hamas-Fatah Battles

Once again, Palestinian factions battled it out in the Gaza Strip,
as the two main factions, Hamas and Fatah, wrestle for control of the
Palestinian non-state known as the Palestinian Authority. (Hamas
controls the Gaza Strip, from which Hamas continues to fire hundreds
of rockets at Israel), while Fatah controls the West Bank.

5
Palestinians Killed in Hamas-Fatah Clashes in Gaza–By VOA News,
December 31, 2007

Weekly Update–Week of November 25, 2007

Iraq War Casualties (U.S.)–As of Nov. 25, 2007

U.S. Military Casualties:

    Total Fatalities–3,875

    Fatalities due to Hostile Action–3,157

    Total Wounded–28,350

    U.S. Civilian Fatalities–158  (Contractors killed in Iraq)

Total Allied Fatalities:  300

Malaysia’s ethnic Indian community staged its largest anti-government protest on Sunday, November 25, 2007, with more than 10,000 protesters taking to the streets to complain about racial discrimination. Police fired tear gas and used water cannons to break up the protests. At least 20 were arrested.

Israel-Palestinian Conflict:

The upcoming peace conference at Annapolis, Maryland will host not only leaders from the U.S., Israel and the Palestinian Authority, but it will also feature representatives from the governments of Syria and Saudi Arabia. Diplomats from the Arab League, the European Union, Russia, and China are also expected to attend.

Fighting broke out November 25 between Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters of Fatah’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade. Three Palestinian militants were killed, and seven others were injured in the West Bank and Gaza Strip during armed clashes with Israeli soldiers. Over 35 people were arrested in the West Bank. Dozens of Israeli soldiers with armored vehicles entered the Marba’ at Hanoun neighborhood of Ramallah on the West Bank and exchanged shots with Fatah’s military wing. Also on Nov. 25, Israeli forces killed two Palestinian militants from the Islamic Jihad and the Popular Resistance Committees (PRC) in the area east of al-Maghazi refugee camp in central Gaza Strip.

South America:

Venezuela and Colombia moved toward a diplomatic crisis on Sunday Nov. 25, following an an exchange of insults between Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez and the Colombian President, Álvaro Uribe. The two South American nations are neighbors, but Chavez is a major critic of American policies in Latin America, while Uribe is supported by the Bush Administration. Columbia is fighting a leftist insurgency and in the past, Colombia has expressed concern over large Venezuelan arms purchases; fearing that some of the small-arms purchased with Chavez’ oil money may end up in the hands of Colombian rebels. Look for the Bush Administration to support Colombia in any dispute with Chavez.

Thailand:

The Thai Army captured the eight Muslim insurgents arrested in a raid November 24, 2007 on an insurgent hideout in the troubled southern province of Narathiwat, Thailand.

Since January 2004, more than 2,600 people have died in fighting and terrorism in the Muslim-majority southern provinces of Pattani, Narathiwat and Yala where Muslim insurgents are fighting for independence from Thailand.

Sri Lanka:

Sri Lankan air force jets attacked a satellite communications center operated by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), in an attempt to reduce the Tamil rebels’ intelligence gathering-capability. The military attacked a Tamil base at Dharmapuram, near the LTTE’s headquarters at Kilinochchi in northern Sri Lanka, on November 25. The LTTE claimed the attack was on a civilian settlement, killing four people.

In a separate clash, the Sri Lankan army repulsed an attack by the Tamil Tigers Nov. 25 near Mannar in the northwest, killing at least five rebels.

Nepal:

Nepal’s former rebel leader, Prachanda, threatened to renew the long-standing civil war if his demands for immediate abolition of the monarchy are not met. Prachanda and his Maoist followers, while giving up the armed struggle for now, have been arguing with mainstream political parties over their demands for Nepal to be immediately declared a republic. The Maoists ended their decade-long insurgency in November of 2006. The Nepal Civil War claimed over 13,000 lives.

Recent events in the Middle East and elsewhere raise the question, not of if, but when, a U.S.-led war on Iran will begin.

Some points to ponder:

         1.  Turkey (an Iran neighbor) is threatening to attack Kurdish rebel (PKK) bases in northern Iraq (also an Iran neighbor).

         2.  Iran has recently been shelling Kurdish rebel (PEJAK) bases in northern Iraq.

         3.  Recent war fears related to the Turkey/Kurd conflict pushed oil prices past the $90 a barrel mark.

         4.  Evidence mounts that Vice-President Dick Cheney is urging President Bush to launch a war on Iran prior to Jan. 20, 2008, when they both must leave office to make way for the new president.  Most likely such an attack on Iran will take place after the election, so as to not affect the Republican nominee’s chances of winning.  See Rolling Stone Magazine’s recent article. Znet,  Atlantic Free Press

         5.  Some conspiracy theorists contend that the recent revelation of an unauthorized  nuclear-armed B-52 flight across the United States was not truly some kind of incredible error or once-in-a-lifetime chain of events leading to a huge mistake, but a part of some conspiracy or cover-up.  One theory is that the nuclear-tipped cruise missiles were intended for the Middle East and for targets in Iran, and that the flight to Louisiana was some sort of quiet "rebellion" in the ranks of the Air Force.  See

          6.  Israel’s recent air strike on Syria looks more and more like an Osirak-style raid to stop an Arab nation from acquiring nuclear weapons.  The New York Times and ABC News report that the target in Syria was a nuclear facility being built with North Korean aid.

          7.  Iran and Russia are getting cozy, and Russia is Iran’s main supplier of weapons.  The Bush administration may be tempted to attack Iran soon, before the Moscow-Tehran relationship turns into a real alliance. 

The world is at a vital turning point.  A U.S. attack on Iran could have serious consequences for the entire world.  These recent events show that strange things are occurring and the world public is left wondering.  We shall see what the future holds…

Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that Israel did indeed launch a heretofore secret air strike on Syrian territory on September 6, 2007.  He did not specify what the target was or why it was so important to attack and risk war.  He also revealed a moment of unity between Israel’s rival political parties; Prime Minister Olmert consulted with opposition leader Netanyahu prior to the attack.  Netanyahu said that he agreed with the military mission over Syria.

Meanwhile, reports from Syria indicate a movement within the ruling circles of the Baathist government in Damascus, that Syria must perform some sort of military response to what is now an overt attack by Israel. 

Both sides have spoken of being prepared for war this summer, along with publicly alleged desire for peace.  Syria has been upgrading its military, particularly its missile forces, with large purchases from Russia.  Israel has spent the summer with increased training for its ground forces.  The Israeli army performed poorly in its combat with Hezbollah in the 2006 Second Lebanon War. 

The War and Conflict Journal believes that the evidence of mutual military buildups, internal politics in both countries, and a perceived sense that "something" must be done about each other. Both Israel and Syria see each other as a major threat, and many leaders in each nation feel that a war may serve as a way to either reduce a perceived threat, or prove to itself and its allies that it can stand up to the ancient enemy.

A new Middle Eastern, Arab-Israeli War is about to begin, and it will be the bloodiest, most expensive war in Israel’s history.  This time, Syria has missiles that can drop large conventional (and chemical) warheads on Israeli cities.  Once war begins, Israel will have to seize Syrian territory, up to and including the capital of Damascus, in order to force the missile attacks to stop.  Such a war could easily tempt Hezbollah to launch its missiles and rockets at Israel again, as they did in 2006.  Lebanon would again become a battleground.  And Iran, ally and patron to both Syria and Hezbollah, may also enter the fray, which in turn could cause the United States and other Western allies to join the war as an opportunity to abort Iran’s growing nuclear abilities.

A 2007 October War could easily escalate into a regional nightmare.  All sides must tread carefully.

Syrian official: Damascus eager to respond to Israel flyover–YNet News, Sept. 20, 2007

Netanyahu confirms secret attack on Syria–The Guardian, Sept. 21, 2007