War and Conflict Journal

Interesting article on Time.com regarding American naval assets in the Pacific targeting China and Beijing’s growing military presence in the Pacific.  And, considering several incidents between American and Chinese naval vessels in 2009, the Tomahawk and Special Forces-carrying Ohio-class submarines appearing in the Pacific and Indian Oceans on July 4 (Good touch there, Pentagon planners!) this quiet, yet visible show of American naval power is a good reminder to the Beijing regime not to take America lightly.  It is also a good message to American friends in the Pacific and East Asia that U.S. naval power is in the neighborhood.

Worth reading at

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2002378,00.html?xid=rss-fullnation-yahoo#ixzz0tCs7qvvG

http://www.historyguy.com/india_maoist_insurgent_war.htm

At least 22 troops were killed when armed Maoists attacked a camp of the paramilitary forces in India’s West Bengal state on Feb. 15, 2010.

Nearly 50 rebels on motorcycles encircled the camp of the Eastern Frontier Rifles (ERF) at Silda village on Monday and started firing on it.

More fighters joined the assault on foot, firing from automatic weapons.

More than 6,000 people have died during the rebels’ 20-year fight for communist rule in many Indian states.

The Indian government recently began a major offensive against the rebels in several states.

Indian Prime minister Manmohan Singh has described the Maoist insurgency as India’s “greatest internal security challenge”.

The Maoist rebels now have a presence in 223 of India’s 600 or so districts.

On November 09, 2009, a North Korean naval vessel entered South Korean waters, refused to return to the North, and then was brought under fire by the South Korean navy. The North Korean ship was partially destroyed, and managed to escape back across the Naval Limit Line, which is the sea-border between the Koreas. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Northern incursion came only days before U.S. President Barack Obama was due to visite East Asia. It is common for the Pyongyang regime to seek attention from the U.S. and from the world as a whole in order to put it’s own agenda on the table and to force other nations to deal with North Korea.
The naval battle took place near the South Korean-held island of Daecheong-do, 125 miles west of the South Korean capital of Seoul. The island is located ja mere 18 miles from the North Korean coast.

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_naval_battle_2009.htm

North Korea launched five short-range missiles into the sea and declared a “no-sail zone” for the week of October 12.  The missile launches came as South Korea called for more talks on the Korean Nuclear Issue.

See also:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8302841.stm

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_nuclear_crisis.htm

In a possible sign that North Korea is more willing to work with the international community on several pressing issues, Pyongyang released four South Korean fishermen and their boat, which the North seized on July 30, after the fishing boat strayed into Northern waters.

Earlier this month, the Communist North freed two American journalists after a visit from former President Bill Clinton, and later  freed a South Korean worker after more than four months of captivity. On Friday the two Koreas agreed to resume reunions of families divided by the Korean War (1950-1953).

See also:

http://warandconflictjournal.com/2009/07/north-korea-captures-south-korean-fishing-boat//

July 29, 2009- North Korean naval forces seized a South Korean fishing vessel early on the morning of July 29, 2009, after it accidentally strayed into North Korean waters. The South Korean governement asked the Pyongyang regime to release the fishing boat and to return the four crewmen. The captured ship is 29 tons and is called the “800 Yeonan.” The South claims the ship strayed into North Korean waters due to a satellite navigation system error or malfunction.

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_border_conflicts.htm

On July 2, 2009, North Korea launched four more short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan.  Fears abound that the North Koreans may launch a ballistic missile toward Hawaii over the July 4th weekend.

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_nuclear_crisis.htm

China and India: Enemies Again?

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal points out an uncomfortable truth: Namely that the world’s two most populous nations, China and India, still really do not like nor trust each other very much.  And, to add some spice to this long-standing rivalry, one needs to only remember that these two Asian giants share a very long border, but that they are both nuclear powers. 

As stated in the WSJ:

On June 8, New Delhi announced it would deploy two additional army divisions and two air force squadrons near its border with China. Beijing responded furiously to the Indian announcement, hardening its claim to some 90,000 square kilometers of Indian territory that China disputes.

China and India fought a nasty border war back in 1962, over disputed land along the border, and they never really settled the issue satisfactorily.  The WSJ points out that in recent years, China has worked hard to put in many roads and other infrastructure that could facilitate troop and weapon movement in the event of a new conflict.  India has not done similar work on its side of the border.

In recent years however China has been raising the temperature at the border. Chinese claims to Arunachal Pradesh and frequent Chinese “incursions” into the nearby Indian state of Sikkim have begun to multiply in line with Beijing’s rising economic and political influence. Moreover, unlike India, China has methodically developed its infrastructure along the disputed border, littering the barren terrain with highways and railways capable of moving large numbers of goods and troops.

For its part, New Delhi has become both increasingly aware of its disadvantage and exceedingly suspicious of China’s intentions. India’s June 8 announcement that it will deploy two additional army mountain divisions to the northeastern state of Assam will bring India’s troop levels in the region to more than 100,000. The Indian Air Force, meanwhile, announced it will station two squadrons of advanced Sukhoi-30 MKI aircraft in Tezpur, also in Assam. They will be complemented by three Airborne Warning and Control Systems and the addition or upgrade of airstrips and advanced landing stations.

The article also points out that China has invested in projects in nations throughout South Asia, including in nations with ongoing or recent issues with India, such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Bangladesh.

China has been spending a lot of financial and political capital to extend its influence around Asia, and also into Africa and Latin America.  China’s military is quickly improving and modernizing by leaps and bounds.  India is bordered by nations who do not like India, and China is making friends with India’s other enemies, such as Myanmar/Burma.  India had best watch out, and the American government needs to work hard to keep China from flexing its muscles at the expense of democratic India.

 See also:

http://www.historyguy.com/india-bangladesh_2001.htm

http://www.historyguy.com/kargil_war.html

http://www.historyguy.com/indo_pakistani-wars.html

http://www.historyguy.com/kashmir_links.html

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124578881101543463.html

On May 28, the Chief of Staff of the United States Army declared that the U.S. has the ability to successfully fight a new war in Korea, despite fighting counter-insurgency wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  See the full article at:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_pentagon_nkorea

Also, Chinese fishing boats fled the waters off of Korea in response to the ongoing crisis between North Korea and the U.S., and South Korea.

See the full article at:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090529/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear

North Korea continues to make threatening announcements and conduct threatening actions since the detonation a nuclear device on May 23.  Since conducting that nuclear test, the Communist dictatorship has launched at least six short-range missiles into the sea, and made very belligerent, (even for North Korea!) threats and comments.  On May 27, 2009, North Korea threatened to attack South Korea if ships from the North are searched as part a U.S.-led effort to stop vessels suspected of carrying missiles or weapons of mass destruction (WOMDs). North Korea also declared the truce that ended the Korean War in 1953 as invalid.  South Korea decided to join the international effort to search North Korean vessels suspected of carrying missiles or WOMDs.  South Korea had refrained from doing so in the past, but with the Northern nuclear test on May 23, the situation changed and the South decided to send a message to the North.

Also unusual in the world reaction to this North Korean nuclear test, is the public condemnation of the North by the closest things it has to friends; China and Russia.

Many analysts are saying that this is mere saber-rattling by Kim Jong-Il, just as in the past, and that things will quiet down, especially if the world tries to pay the North off to keep quiet for a while.  While that is the most likely scenario, given past history, it should also be noted that absolute dictatorships often make very bad decisions in the case of war and peace.  Hitler made several very unwise decisions that led to the destruction of Germany.  Saddam Hussein thought Iran would be a soft target in the throes of its violent revolution, only to end up with an eight-year war and hundreds of thousands of dead.  And Saddam also thought he could gobble up Kuwait without any fuss.  Oh, and he really did not expect George W. Bush to invade in 2003.  And those Generals in Argentina who believed the British would never fight for a few cold, remote islands in the South Atlantic.  In each case, the dictators in question ended up out of power, and, in the cases of Hitler and Saddam, ended up dead because they miscalculated the results of starting wars.

The point here is, that while the world thinks that the North Korean leaders will not start a fight they cannot win; they may actually think they CAN win.  Remember, Obama is a new president, untested in the eyes of much of the world, and the U.S. IS in the middle of two major wars.  When the North Koreans attacked and seized the American ship, the USS Pueblo in the late 1960s, the U.S. was in the middle of the Vietnam War.  North Korea gambled correctly, and no American military action against North Korea took place as a result.  If Kim Jong-Il is looking at history as a guide, he may be looking at how his father embarrassed the Americans, not how Hitler, Saddam, and the Argentine Junta ended up!

For more information on this topic, go to:

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_nuclear_crisis.htm

and

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_border_conflicts.htm