War and Conflict Journal

The world is slowly creeping toward the long-awaited and long-feared Iran War.  What is this ‘Iran War?”  At some point, Iran will be attacked, most likely by Israel, perhaps less likely by the United States or some coalition of Western powers.  But the ongoing concerns regarding Iran’s continued nuclear weapons development and the collapse of any reasonable diplomatic scenarios will lead Israel’s leadership with the belief that they have no choice but to strike the Islamic Republic of Iran before they can attack Israel with the nuclear weapons Iran is developing.

Two recent developments in particular shows that Israel is growing increasingly concerned.  First, the Israeli cabinet decided to fund a program to provide gas masks to all Israelis.  This is an obvious preparation for the possibility of missile attacks on Israel from Iran and/or Iranian allies Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria.

Second, on January 12, 2010, a leading Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated by a remote-controlled bomb in Tehran.  It is widely assumed that Israel is behind this killing in an apparent attempt to delay the Iranian nuclear program. 

See also: http://www.historyguy.com/iranwar.htm

Yemen has long been connected to the family of Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaida terrorist organization. The bin Laden family originated in Yemen prior to settling in Saudi Arabia and becoming wealthy in the construction business. Like Afghanistan and Somalia, other favorite bases for al-Qaida, Yemen status as a nation with a fairly weak central government and the frequent conflicts inside Yemen’s borders makes the poor Arabian nation a good location for al-Qaida to hide, recruit, and plan further attacks on the West and on others. In October of 2000, al-Qaida operatives rammed a small boat into the side of an American warship, the USS Cole, blasting a hole in the side of the ship and killing 17 American sailors. A year later, in October, 2002, al-Qaida attacked a French oil tanker, killing one, and causing the spillage of 100,000 gallons of oil. In September, 2008, al-Qaida attacked the U.S. Embassy in Sana’a in a car bomb attack followed by a gun battle with Embassy guards. The Yemeni government has worked with the United States since the September 11, 2001 attacks on the U.S. in combating the al-Qaida presence in Yemen. In 2002, an American Predator drone controlled by the Central Intelligence Agency destroyed a vehicle in Yemen containing several al-Qaida operatives. Airstrikes against al-Qaida targets in Yemen in 2009, prior to the Christmas Day airliner attack, are believed to have been conducted with significant American aid, though officially the attacks were conducted by the Yemeni government.

In early January, 2010, General David Petraeus,..READ THE REST OF THE ARTICLE AT: http://www.historyguy.com/yemen_history_wars_politics.htm

 Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the North African branch of Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaida terrorist group, claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of two Italians on December 18 in Mauritania, according to the Al-Arabiya TV channel, which is based in Dubai.

The abductions of the Italians are similar to the way three Spaniards were seized  in late November, 2009   by al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb.

 Over the past two year,  al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb claimed a series of attacks in Mauritania, including the assassination in late 2007 of four French citizens in Aleg (about 150 miles east of the capital of Nouakchott) and an American in June in Nouakchott.

Attempt to Bomb Northwest Airlines Flight 253 on Christmas Day, 2009

Northwest Airlines Flight 253 After Attempted Terrorist Attack

The Islamist terror network al-Qaida apparantly made an attempt to attack the United States on Christmas Day, 2009. A Nigerian man named Abdul Mudallab attempted to ignite an explosive device onboard Northwest Airlines Flight 253 as it neared the airport in Detroit, Michigan on December 25, 2009. Early reports indicate Mudallab claimed a connection to al-Qaida, though later reports say he denied any such connection.

Reports indicate that Mudallab, an an engineering student at University College of London, took a flight from Nigeria to the Netherlands, where he then boarded the American plane on a route to Detroit. About 20 minutes from the Detroit airport, fellow passengers smelled smoke, and noticed that Mudallab was attempting to ignite something. A passenger jumped on Mudallab, and apparently interrupted an attempt to cause a mid-air explosion. The suspect was seen with burns to his legs, and the passenger who jumped on him also is reported to have suffered burns.

Airport and airlines security worldwide was tightened in response to this attack. U.S. officials are treating this incident as an attempted terrorist attack.

Links and Resources:

 http://www.historyguy.com/airplane_attempted_bombing_christmasday_2009.htm

Jet passengers overpowered would-be bomber–LA Times, Dec. 25, 2009

Statement by Department of Homeland Security Press Secretary Sara Kuban–Dept. of Homeland Security Press Release, Dec. 25, 2009

Venezuela and Colombia are Spanish-speaking nations on the northern coast of South America. The current leader of Venezuela is Hugo Chavez, a self-styled Socialist who is an ally of Cuba and a proclaimed foe of the United States and world capitalism. The current president of Colombia is Álvaro Uribe Vélez, a Conservative. Colombia is an ally of the United States.

These two nations are at odds, largely due to the political differences of their leaders.  Below are resources on this ongoing conflict.

Colombia-Venezuela Conflict (2009)—Historyguy.com

Colombia launches US drones over Venezuela – or was that ‘Santa’s sleigh’? –Christian Science Monitor, Dec. 22, 2009

Colombia denies Venezuela’s claims of spy drones–BBC News, Dec. 22, 2009

Chavez Adds Dutch to His Enemies List –Korea Times, Dec. 22, 2009

Drones Violate Venezuelan Air Space near Colombian Border–Venezuelanalysis.com, Dec. 22, 2009

Tensions with Venezuela Rise Over New Colombian Military Base –Latin America News Dispatch, Dec. 21, 2009

Colombia to build new military base on Venezuelan border –Colombia Reports, Dec. 20, 2009

Colombia raps Venezuela over FARC rebel “insult” –Reuters, Dec 9, 2009

Nigerian Rebels Claim Attack on Oil Pipeline

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta blamed the resumption of the attacks on the suspended peace talks due to President Umaru Yar’Adua’s absence.

December 19, 2009

The rebel group responsible for most of the attacks in Nigeria’s oil producing region claims to have destroyed a major crude pipeline in “a warning” strike early Saturday, December 19, 2009.  The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) says 35 of its fighters, armed with assault rifles and heavy machine guns raided an oil facility jointly operated by Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron in Rivers state.

The group met with President Umaru Yar’Adua last month at the start of peace talks. But the process has been stalled by Mr. Yar’Adua’s absence from Nigeria in the past few weeks. The Nigerian leader is receiving medical treatment in Saudi Arabia for a heart condition.

A statement by MEND said “a situation where the future of the Niger Delta is tied to the health and well-being of one man is unacceptable.” The group says it may review an indefinite cease-fire it declared after 30 days.

The Catholic bishop of the Niger Delta town of Bomadi, Hyacinth Egbegbo, is urging the militants to stay calm saying only a negotiated peace can bring lasting stability to the troubled oil-rich region.

“Let us go for peace, not for any more struggles,” said the bishop. “Armed struggle is not going to be in favor of any Nigerian. So let us sit down at the table and see that we resolve these problems amicably.  I appeal to the boys to take their guns away from the dialogue that is being initiated by the government. Because dialogue with guns is not dialogue. So let us put the guns aside and speak words of wisdom to each other so that we can come to a more amicable solution to the problem.”

The militant group, which says it is fighting for a fairer share of the region’s oil wealth, crippled daily oil production with series of attacks on oil facilities and personnel since early 2006.

But MEND has been severely weakened since dozens of its field commanders and thousands of gunmen accepted President Yar’Adua’s amnesty offer and disarmed.

The Niger Delta remains a stronghold for gangs and militant groups with strong opposition toward foreign oil companies and the government.

Security analysts say the oil industry remains vulnerable to opportunistic attacks, crude oil thefts and kidnappings. Nigeria plans to offer inhabitants of the Niger Delta an extra 10 percent in oil and gas revenues in a bid to end the rebellion.

Source: http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/africa/19dec09-nigeria-oil-79713812.html

On November 09, 2009, a North Korean naval vessel entered South Korean waters, refused to return to the North, and then was brought under fire by the South Korean navy. The North Korean ship was partially destroyed, and managed to escape back across the Naval Limit Line, which is the sea-border between the Koreas. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Northern incursion came only days before U.S. President Barack Obama was due to visite East Asia. It is common for the Pyongyang regime to seek attention from the U.S. and from the world as a whole in order to put it’s own agenda on the table and to force other nations to deal with North Korea.
The naval battle took place near the South Korean-held island of Daecheong-do, 125 miles west of the South Korean capital of Seoul. The island is located ja mere 18 miles from the North Korean coast.

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_naval_battle_2009.htm

Saudi Arabia and Yemen are two arabic speaking Sunni
Muslim-majority nations on the Arabian penisula with a
long history of hostility toward each other. However,
both nations are battling al-Qaida rebels, and both have
concerns about the growing influence of Shiite-majority
Iran and its growing influence in the Arab world. Yemen
has battled a local Shiite insurgency (called the Houthi
Rebellion or the Saadah Insurgency), in the northernmost
region of the country near the Saudi border.

As the Shiite rebellion in Yemen grew, and appeared to
be receiving aid from Saudi Arabia’s rival, Iran, the
Saudis in turn aided the Yemeni government. The Yemeni
rebels launched an incursion into Saudi Arabia in early
November, and a Saudi soldier was killed by the so-called
al-Houthi rebels along the border on Novermber 4, 2009,
and on November 6, Saudi forces openly intervened in the
Yemeni war with air strikes near the border and artillery
fire on rebel positions inside Yemen.

Saudi officials reported that as of Nov. 8, Saudi
military casualties included three killed, 15 wounded,
and four missing. Saudi Arabia claimed to have regained
control Saudi territory seized by the Yemeni rebels the
week before. Smoke from airstrikes rose above the Jebel
al-Dukhan, a 6,600-foot tall mountain on the border
between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, near the town of
Al-Khubah.

video of a Saudi
warplane over Yemen border

 Web and News
Links on the Saudi-Yemen Border Wars:

http://www.historyguy.com/Saudi_Yemen_Border_Conflict_2009.htm

Saudi and Yemen battle Zaidi rebels–AFP, Nov. 8, 2009

Saudi Arabia says regains area seized by Yemen
rebels–Reuters, Nov. 8, 2009

Saudi
Forces Bomb Yemeni Rebels on Southern Border –Wall
Street Journal, Nov. 7, 2009 

Houthis
Capture Saudi Soldiers, Saudi Bombing Yemen for Third
Day–Nov. 6, 2009

CIA
Factbook on Country or
conflict
–Click
on the country name (Yemen) at this site.

Security
Incidents in Yemen, 1998–From
the Al-bab website.

Tiny
Voices Defy Child Marriage in
Yemen–June
29, 2008

Massive
protest in south Yemen–by
Jane Novak, for the Long War Journal, May 27,
2008

Yemen’s
Intifada–by
Jane Novak, for the Long War Journal, January 2,
2008

The Sa’dah insurgency in northern Yemen began in June of 2004 with a rebellion led by the Shiite cleric Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, head of the Shi‘a Zaidiyyah sect. Most of the fighting has taken place in Sa’dah Governorate (province) in northwesternmost Yemen.

In November of 2009, the Sa’ada insurgency took on an alarming new dimension, as Saudi Arabia openly intervened to aid the Yemeni government with air strikes and artillery barrages on the Shiite rebels.  Analysts see the Saudi participation partly as a pre-emptive strike to prevent the war from actually spreading into Saudi territory, but also as a move against Iran, which is believed to be aiding the rebels. Saudi Arabia and Iran have engaged in a long-running proxy conflict in the Gulf region, in the Iraqi civil war, and also in Lebanon, where Iran backs Hezbollah, and the Saudis support the Lebanese government.

Of interest is the fact that Saudi Arabia is aiding Yemen at all, given the fact they have a long history of dislike toward each other,  but the mutual threat from both Iran and al-Qaida (and their mutual alliance with the U.S.) appears to trump past history.

See also:

http://www.historyguy.com/Saudi_Yemen_Conflict.html

http://www.historyguy.com/yemen_saada_war.htm

Mossad Hacked Syrian Official’s Computer Before Bombing Mysterious Nuclear Facility

 From Wired

November 3, 2009

Agents of Israel’s Mossad intelligence service hacked into the computer of a senior Syrian government official a year before Israel bombed a facility in Syria in 2007, according to Der Spiegel.

The intelligence agents planted a Trojan horse on the official’s computer in late 2006 while he was staying at a hotel in the Kensington district of London, the German newspaper reported Monday in an extensive account of the bombing attack.

The official reportedly left his computer in his hotel room when he went out, making it easy for agents to install the malware that siphoned files from the laptop. The files contained construction plans for the Al Kabir complex in eastern Syria — said to be an illicit nuclear facility — as well as letters and hundreds of detailed photos showing the complex at various stages of construction.

At the beginning — probably in 2002, although the material was undated — the construction site looked like a treehouse on stilts, complete with suspicious-looking pipes leading to a pumping station at the Euphrates. Later photos show concrete piers and roofs, which apparently had only one function: to modify the building so that it would look unsuspicious from above. In the end, the whole thing looked as if a shoebox had been placed over something in an attempt to conceal it. But photos from the interior revealed that what was going on at the site was in fact probably work on fissile material.

Early in the morning of September 6, 2007, Israeli fighter jets bombed the complex, located in the desert near the Euphrates river about 80 miles from the Iraq border. The attack, dubbed “Operation Orchard,” seemed to come out of nowhere and was marked by a resounding silence from both Israel and the United States afterward.

Israel claimed the incident never occurred. The United States claimed ignorance, but a State Department official suggested the target was nuclear equipment obtained by “secret suppliers.”

The Syrians were said to have been building the reactor with help from North Korea. The Israeli military’s intelligence unit, known as 8200, was reportedly tipped off to this by the U.S. National Security Agency, which intercepted conversations between Syrian officials at the reactor and North Koreans.

Israel’s concern about the facility really kicked into gear when it discovered that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad traveled to Syria in 2006, according to der Spiegel. The paper alleges that Ahmadinejad promised the Syrians more than $1 billion to hasten their progress.

In early 2007, Iran’s former deputy Minister of Defense defected to Turkey and told the CIA that Iran was funding a top-secret nuclear facility in Syria in conjunction with North Korea. Days before the Israeli attack on Al Kabir, a ship from North Korea arrived in Syria loaded with uranium materials, according to the Mossad.

Israel’s attack on the facility commenced late in the evening of September 5, when 10 Israeli jets departed from a base in Northern Israel around 11 p.m. and headed west over the Mediterranean. Seven of them turned east to Syria, flying low, and took out a radar station with their missiles. About 20 minutes later they released their bombs on Al Kabir.

Afterward, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert reportedly sent a message to Syria through Turkey saying no further hostilities were planned.

Israel, Olmert said, did not want to play up the incident and was still interested in making peace with Damascus. He added that if Assad chose not to draw attention to the Israeli strike, he would do the same.

In this way, a deafening silence about the mysterious event in the desert began. Nevertheless, the story did not end there, because there were many who chose to shed light on the incident — and others who were intent on exacting revenge.

Syrian President Bashar Assad maintains that the facility was a conventional military installation. But Der Spiegel reports that in June 2008, a team of experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency analyzed soil at Al Kabir taken after the bombing and found traces of uranium that were “of a type not included in Syria’s declared inventory of nuclear material.” Assad says the Israelis dropped the samples from the air when they bombed the facility in order to frame Syria.