War and Conflict Journal

American Special Forces attacked vehicles in Somalia carrying members of al-Qaida’s Somalia and Kenya branch on September 14, 2009. The dead included Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, wanted for the 2002 car bombing of a beach resort in Kenya and an attempt to shoot down an Israeli airliner. He was a leader of the local al-Qaida branch. Nabhan was a 30-year old Kenyan who is suspected of being behind the 2002 attacks in Kenya ttargeting Israelis. Ten Kenyans and three Israelis died in the bombing of an Israeli-owned hotel in Mombasa. Ground-to-air missiles were fired at the Israeli airliner as it took off from the city’s airport but missed the jet. Nabhan is believed to be one of those who fired a missile. He later escaped in Somalia, which is a largly lawless nation with a strong al-Qaida presence.

Previous American attacks on al-Qaida in Somalia involved missile attacks which were relatively imprecise, and created casualties among Somali civilians. This attack was carried out by helicopters which fired on the vehicles. Witnesses reported that after the helicopter attack concluded, American troops rappelled to the ground, collected the dead and wounded, and flew off. One Somali official said that the attack produced five dead.

The last confirmed American troop presence in Somalia was in 1993, during the Battle of Mogadishu. When Ethiopia invaded Somali in 2005 and 2006, some reports indicated that small numbers of U.S. troops accompanied the Ethiopians, searching for al-Qaida leaders.

See http://www.historyguy.com/special_forces_attack_al-qaida_somalia.htm

Somalia is a chaotic and nearly governmentless nation off the east coast of Africa, and it is home to the world's best known contemporary pirates. These pirates, who operate a financially lucrative ship-hijacking operation, capture merchant ships off the coasts of Yemen, Somalia, and Kenya, and then hold them for ransom. The ship owners and their insurance companies usually pay the ransom, sometimes in the millions of dollars, because it is far cheaper than losing the ship and cargo. For example, the Saudi oil tanker seized on Nov. 17, 2008, had just been built, at a cost of $150 million, and carried an oil cargo valued at $100 million. Paying a ransom of even several million dollars would save the ship and crew.

Naval vessels from around the world (United Stated, United Kingdom, Russia, India, others), patrol the Somali coast to…http://www.historyguy.com/somali_pirate_attacks.htm  Go to History Guy.com to see the rest of the article

Analysis:  Ethiopia’s war in Somalia continues to resemble a dusty version of Vietnam, or an African version of Iraq.  Unlike the U.S. though, Ethiopia does not have the financial or military resources to "Surge" in Somalia as the U.S. has done (with apparent success) in Iraq.  How is Ethiopia paying for this war, anyway?

Islamic Insurgents Briefly Capture Somali Military Airfield

By VOA
News

25 January 2008

Reports from Somalia say Islamic insurgents
briefly captured the nation’s largest military airfield Friday, killing
two soldiers and escaping with stolen weapons.

Somali army officials and witnesses say militants attacked the
airport at Baledogle, about 100 kilometers south of the capital,
Mogadishu.  They say the militants relinquished control after seizing
weapons that were stored there.

Fighters with the al-Shabaab Islamic rebel group took credit for the attack on local radio.

Islamist insurgents have been battling the Somali government and
allied Ethiopian troops for the past year.  The fighting has killed
thousands and prompted an estimated 600,000 more to flee Mogadishu.

On Wednesday, militants fired mortar rounds near the presidential
palace about the same time that African Union Peace and Security
Commissioner Sa’id Djinnit met with Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein.

Djinnit presented Somali leaders with a four-point AU peace plan
aimed at stopping the fighting.  The plan includes a call for greater
international involvement in peacekeeping operations.

Djinnit said the 1,800 AU peacekeepers in Mogadishu are doing a
"wonderful job."  But he accused the international community of
abandoning Somalia.  Djinnit urged the U.N. Security Council to
re-establish a peacekeeping mission.

Somalia has been without an effective central government since 1991,
when warlords overthrew dictator Mohamad Siad Barre.  A number of
factions have been fighting each other for control while a transitional
government, set up ahead of scheduled elections, tries to assert its
authority

As Ethiopia marks the first anniversary of her
intervention and immersion in Somalia’s ongoing civil war, reports
indicate that fighting has broken out on the Eritrea-Ethiopia
border.

According to the Voice
of America:

"Eritrea has accused Ethiopia of
   attacking its security forces along the two countries’ disputed
   border.
   
   

In a statement posted on its Web site late
   Wednesday, the Asmara government said Ethiopian troops made a
   failed, small-scale attack late Tuesday on Eritrean forces in the
   South Tsorona area."

At this point, Ethiopia is denying launching any
type of attack. It is believed that Eritrea is waging a proxy war
against Ethiopia in Somalia; supplying weapons and other material to
the Islamist resistance fighting against the Somali government and
its Ethiopian allies.

The two Horn of Africa neighbors waged a bloody
border war from 1998-2000, in which over 70,000 died. The border
dispute that sparked that war remains unresolved. Eritrea gained its
independence from Ethiopia after a thirty-year long war from 1961 to
1991.

According to the International
Crisis Group‘s (ICG) Africa
Briefing of November 5, 2007:

"The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will
   resume their war in the next several weeks is very real. A
   military build-up along the common border over the past few months
   has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military
   solution if hostilities restart; more likely is a protracted
   conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia
   and a dramatic humanitarian crisis."

That report mentions a resumption of war "in the
next few weeks is very real." Reports from UN troops on the ground in
the Eritrea-Ethiopia border region of gunfire and combat on December,
26, 2007, is, literally "a few weeks" after the ICG report’s
warning.

Also, the December 13, 2007 edition of The
Economist, in an article on the ongoing border discussions and
disagreements, said:

"This time Mr Zenawi’s [Ethiopia's
   leader] belligerence comes as the Eritrea-Ethiopia Border
   Commission wound up business this month, with no agreed
   demarcation. In 2002 it awarded the disputed village of Badme to
   Eritrea. Ethiopia rejected the verdict, and has since used
   diplomatic verbiage to obfuscate and stall."

This statement, by a very respected publication,
along with the ICG’s prediction of warfare for mid-to-late December,
gives rise to increased fears that the reports of fighting on the
border may be part of a larger campaign to redraw the border and
bring things to a head.

Other links and news reports on the new fighting
between Eritrea and Ethiopia:

Fear
of War Increasing in Horn of
Africa–Associated Press, Dec. 26,
2007

Exchange
of gunfire on Eritrea-Ethiopia border:
UN–AFP, Dec. 27, 2007

Ethiopia
denies Eritrea’s fresh accusation on border
attack-Sudan Tribune, December 28 2007

The BBC has a very good article on the implications of the
Ethiopian intervention in Somalia, which is now at the one-year
mark.

See this article at:  Ethiopia
in Somalia: One year on

One very interesting point is that the Ethiopian government admits
that it was warned by the United States Central Commander, General
John Abizaid, that an invasion of Somalia would be a mistake. Abizaid
warned the Ethiopians that Somalia would become "Ethiopia’s
Iraq."

And, like America’s predicament in Iraq, with a possible face-down
with Iran, and other fronts in the War on Terror, Ethiopia also has
multiple fronts, with the strengthening of the long-running Ogaden
insurgency, and a potential new war with Eritrea to the north.

Analysis: Look for Eritrea to make a move to escalate either their
aid to the Somalis and Ogaden rebels, and/or to put pressure on
Ethiopia along the border. Reports from the United Nations indicate a
new border conflict is brewing.

Some war casualty figures were released by a human-rights group in Somalia. The figures are unverified, but, in the War and Conflict Journal’s opinion, are not outside the realm of possibility. Mogadishu has seen heavy combat between the insurgent Islamic forces and the heavily-equipped Ethiopian military. Also, the insurgents are using Iraq-style bombing techniques and tactics, which tend to inflict large numbers of casualties among civilians.

According to Somalia’s Elman Human Rights group, 5,960 civilian fatalities occurred in the capital of Mogadishu in 2007. Also, the group claims that 7,980 civilians were wounded and over 700,000 displaced from their homes due to the continuing war between the Somali government and the Islamic insurgency. Ethiopia is aiding the Somali government; providing troops and air power to fight the insurgents. In December of 2006, Ethiopian forces, with American aid, invaded Islamic forces-held Somali territory and overthrew the extremist Islamic regime and helped install a pro-Western government in its place.

Source:

Somali group: 5,960 killed this year–Associated Press, December 2, 2007

Is should be noted that the United States is Ethiopia’s number one supporter in its wars with rebels and its intervention in Somalia.  Oil discoveries in these disputed territories  will also benefit the U.S.

Ethiopia Focuses on Oil Deals Despite Resistance From Rebels–Voice of America, Aug. 10, 2007

"The minister for Mining and Energy in Ethiopia says the recent oil deals signed with international companies for exploration and mining across the country will bring much needed development to the poor East African country, despite opposition. Arjun Kohli has more on the story from our East Africa Bureau in Nairobi.

Petroleum exploration is currently under way in the regions of Gambella, Ogaden, Southern Rift and Abay Basin.  The Minister for Energy and Mining, Alemayeu Tegenu signed a $1.9 million dollar deal with Malasian company Petronas last month to develop natural gas in the Ogaden region…"

Somali gunmen attack –BBC July 31, 2007

Somali Islamists defend insurgency–Middle East Times, July 30, 2007

News links on the Ethiopia-Somalia Conflict –7/30/07

US, Ethiopia accused over Somalia–7/27/07, Financial Times

Is Somalia a Proxy War Between Ethiopia and Eritrea?–7/27/07, from EthioBlog

U.S. Special Forces accompanied Ethiopian troops in Somalia

Though the U.S. airstrike on potential al-Qaida targets in southern Somalia has been widely reported, the news that U.S. Special Forces troops accompanied the Ethiopian military in its invasion/intervention in Somalia should (but probably won’t) raise some eyebrows. Though it fits into the Bush Administration’s overall policy of going after terrorists and their allies wherever they may be, it does represent an interesting escalation of American involvement in the Horn of Africa’s myriad conflicts. Looked at one way, this intervention follows the model used in the Afghanistan invasion of 2001. Relatively small numbers of Special Forces troops aiding and accompanying local forces. In Afghanistan, the local forces were the Northern Alliance, in Somalia they are the Baidoa-based Transitional Government of Somalia and their Ethiopian allies. Also, and again, to no surprise, the U.S. gave intelligence information to the Ethiopians on the locations, positions, and dispositions of their Islamist foes.

For a Bush Administration which continues to take a lot of flak over the mess in Iraq, this “Stealth Intervention” in Somalia effectively eliminates a Taliban-like force from power, while managing to evade and avoid any real notice by the American public. Too bad, actually; Bush and his people need positive public relations in the foreign policy arena.

Keywords: Somalia, Ethiopia, Special Forces, America, United States, Afghanistan

Source and Resource:

Pentagon Sees Move in Somalia as Blueprint- By Mark Mazzetti—NY Times

Published: January 13, 2007

9:59:35 AM