As Ethiopia marks the first anniversary of her
intervention and immersion in Somalia’s ongoing civil war, reports
indicate that fighting has broken out on the Eritrea-Ethiopia
border.

According to the Voice
of America:

"Eritrea has accused Ethiopia of
   attacking its security forces along the two countries’ disputed
   border.
   
   

In a statement posted on its Web site late
   Wednesday, the Asmara government said Ethiopian troops made a
   failed, small-scale attack late Tuesday on Eritrean forces in the
   South Tsorona area."

At this point, Ethiopia is denying launching any
type of attack. It is believed that Eritrea is waging a proxy war
against Ethiopia in Somalia; supplying weapons and other material to
the Islamist resistance fighting against the Somali government and
its Ethiopian allies.

The two Horn of Africa neighbors waged a bloody
border war from 1998-2000, in which over 70,000 died. The border
dispute that sparked that war remains unresolved. Eritrea gained its
independence from Ethiopia after a thirty-year long war from 1961 to
1991.

According to the International
Crisis Group‘s (ICG) Africa
Briefing of November 5, 2007:

"The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will
   resume their war in the next several weeks is very real. A
   military build-up along the common border over the past few months
   has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military
   solution if hostilities restart; more likely is a protracted
   conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia
   and a dramatic humanitarian crisis."

That report mentions a resumption of war "in the
next few weeks is very real." Reports from UN troops on the ground in
the Eritrea-Ethiopia border region of gunfire and combat on December,
26, 2007, is, literally "a few weeks" after the ICG report’s
warning.

Also, the December 13, 2007 edition of The
Economist, in an article on the ongoing border discussions and
disagreements, said:

"This time Mr Zenawi’s [Ethiopia's
   leader] belligerence comes as the Eritrea-Ethiopia Border
   Commission wound up business this month, with no agreed
   demarcation. In 2002 it awarded the disputed village of Badme to
   Eritrea. Ethiopia rejected the verdict, and has since used
   diplomatic verbiage to obfuscate and stall."

This statement, by a very respected publication,
along with the ICG’s prediction of warfare for mid-to-late December,
gives rise to increased fears that the reports of fighting on the
border may be part of a larger campaign to redraw the border and
bring things to a head.

Other links and news reports on the new fighting
between Eritrea and Ethiopia:

Fear
of War Increasing in Horn of
Africa–Associated Press, Dec. 26,
2007

Exchange
of gunfire on Eritrea-Ethiopia border:
UN–AFP, Dec. 27, 2007

Ethiopia
denies Eritrea’s fresh accusation on border
attack-Sudan Tribune, December 28 2007

The BBC has a very good article on the implications of the
Ethiopian intervention in Somalia, which is now at the one-year
mark.

See this article at:  Ethiopia
in Somalia: One year on

One very interesting point is that the Ethiopian government admits
that it was warned by the United States Central Commander, General
John Abizaid, that an invasion of Somalia would be a mistake. Abizaid
warned the Ethiopians that Somalia would become "Ethiopia’s
Iraq."

And, like America’s predicament in Iraq, with a possible face-down
with Iran, and other fronts in the War on Terror, Ethiopia also has
multiple fronts, with the strengthening of the long-running Ogaden
insurgency, and a potential new war with Eritrea to the north.

Analysis: Look for Eritrea to make a move to escalate either their
aid to the Somalis and Ogaden rebels, and/or to put pressure on
Ethiopia along the border. Reports from the United Nations indicate a
new border conflict is brewing.

Some war casualty figures were released by a human-rights group in Somalia. The figures are unverified, but, in the War and Conflict Journal’s opinion, are not outside the realm of possibility. Mogadishu has seen heavy combat between the insurgent Islamic forces and the heavily-equipped Ethiopian military. Also, the insurgents are using Iraq-style bombing techniques and tactics, which tend to inflict large numbers of casualties among civilians.

According to Somalia’s Elman Human Rights group, 5,960 civilian fatalities occurred in the capital of Mogadishu in 2007. Also, the group claims that 7,980 civilians were wounded and over 700,000 displaced from their homes due to the continuing war between the Somali government and the Islamic insurgency. Ethiopia is aiding the Somali government; providing troops and air power to fight the insurgents. In December of 2006, Ethiopian forces, with American aid, invaded Islamic forces-held Somali territory and overthrew the extremist Islamic regime and helped install a pro-Western government in its place.

Source:

Somali group: 5,960 killed this year–Associated Press, December 2, 2007

Is should be noted that the United States is Ethiopia’s number one supporter in its wars with rebels and its intervention in Somalia.  Oil discoveries in these disputed territories  will also benefit the U.S.

Ethiopia Focuses on Oil Deals Despite Resistance From Rebels–Voice of America, Aug. 10, 2007

"The minister for Mining and Energy in Ethiopia says the recent oil deals signed with international companies for exploration and mining across the country will bring much needed development to the poor East African country, despite opposition. Arjun Kohli has more on the story from our East Africa Bureau in Nairobi.

Petroleum exploration is currently under way in the regions of Gambella, Ogaden, Southern Rift and Abay Basin.  The Minister for Energy and Mining, Alemayeu Tegenu signed a $1.9 million dollar deal with Malasian company Petronas last month to develop natural gas in the Ogaden region…"

Somali gunmen attack –BBC July 31, 2007

Somali Islamists defend insurgency–Middle East Times, July 30, 2007

Ethiopia-Somalia Update

The latest Ethiopian-Somali War increases in intensity as the Baidoa-based Somali government forces and their Ethiopian allies push towards Mogadishu. The latest reports claim that up to a thousand Islamist fighters died, and nearly 3,000 more were wounded in this past week’s fighting.

3 Groups Prepare for Battle in Somalia—Associated Press, Dec. 26, 2006

3:02:52 PM comment [0]

Monday, December 25, 2006

Ethiopia Crosses the Line

Just in time for Christmas, the low-grade warfare in Somalia between the Islamic forces and the intervening Ethiopian military escalated in a significant way. Ethiopian forces bombed Mogadishu airport and Baledogle Airport, about 35 miles outside Mogadishu, while troops seized Belet Weyne, an important border town. Ethiopian troops also took over the towns of Bandiradley, Adadow and Galinsor. The Ethiopian government reported on television that the goal of the offensive was Jowhar, a town not far from Mogadishu.

Foreign Islamist fighters are also joining the fray, seeing this as another front in their jihad against the Christian West (Ethiopia is a largely Christian nation, and is allied with the U.S.)

Several questions come to mind: Is this part of a full-scale attack intended to drive the Islamists out of Mogadishu? How far are Ethiopia and its backers (the U.S.), willing to go? What will Eritrea, ally of the Islamists, and blood foe of Ethiopia, going to do? And, if the Ethiopians do take Mogadishu, will their support of the Baidoa government condemn that government in the eyes of average Somalis? And, as the U.S. discovered in Iraq, conquering a country is a lot easier than controlling it! How many casualties is Ethiopia willing to endure, and who will pay for this war? Ethiopia is NOT a rich country.

Stay tuned for more information as this war expands in a big way…

Ethiopian jets bomb airports in Somalia — By Salad Duhul, Associated Press, December 25, 2006

7:20:33 PM

War in Somalia: Ethiopia aids Baidoa and Puntland

The war in Somalia heats up as Ethiopia helps the Baidoa government and the separatist government of Puntland (a largely unrecognized and very much ignored would-be nation in the northern third of Somalia) beat back the Islamist forces of the Union of Islamic Courts.

It should be noted, that when Puntland first formed in the early 1990s, it fought a brief war against Islamic forces and won.

Clashes Continue in Southern Somalia–The Washington Post

Saturday, December 9, 2006; 9:29 PM

Islamists and Somali Troops Exchange Fire– By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

Published: December 10, 2006

9:35:09 PM

A Look at Africa and its Wars: 12.04.06

Africa is home to several long-standing wars and conflicts, some of which have smoldered on for years, and now threaten to erupt into larger regional conflicts. Of particular concern is the arc of countries from Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) in north-central Africa through Sudan to the Horn of Africa nations of Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia .As with many of the world’s conflicts in the early years of the 21^st Century, the long shadow of the Global War on Terror reaches into this bloody corner of this lost continent.

Sudan:

In the Sudan, warfare returned to the largely Black, Christian south for the first time since a peace agreement was implemented in 2005.  The fighting took place between the former rebels, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), and a northern (meaning Arab Muslim) militia led by Major Gen Gabriel Tang.  After the SPLA trounced the militia, Tang’s men took refuge in a Sudanese Army base at the Nile River port of Malakal.The following day, the Sudanese Army returned with heavy weapons (tanks and artillery), and retook the town, inflicting severe damage.  Several hundred soldiers and civilians perished in the fighting.

With the ongoing war in Darfur, Sudan does not need a resurgence of the southern war.

‘Hundreds killed’ in Sudan battle—BBC, Nov. 30, 2006

And speaking of Darfur, the fighting there continues, as the Darfurian rebels attack the Sudanese Army and launch raids on the country’s oil supply.  This war has already taken an estimated 400,000 lives. The UN seems helpless to act with any resolve; meanwhile Chad is increasing its aid to the Darfurians, even as Sudan aids Chadian rebels while setting the murderous Janjaweed militia upon refugee camps and towns on the Chad side of the desert border.

Sudan army suffers Darfur defeats—BBC, Oct. 17, 2006

On the positive side, the Sudan government and the Eastern Front rebel group (made up of rebels from the Beja and Rashidiya Arab groups) work to implement a new peace agreement signed in October.This agreement ended 12 years of rebellion in the Red Sea states near the border with Eritrea .Sudan accused Eritrea of aiding these rebel groups.

Sudan’s Interlocking Wars—BBC, May 10, 2006

Army, former rebels review eastern Sudan peace process—Sudan Tribune, Sunday Dec. 3 2006

Central African Republic:

The war in the Central African Republic (CAR), which began in 2003, grew to new levels this month, with increased rebel attacks and victories, which in turn prompted overt French military intervention.  The CAR and Chad both blame Sudan for aiding rebels against their governments.

French planes attack CAR rebels: French fighter planes have fired at rebels in northern Central African Republic (CAR) where thousands have fled fighting in recent weeks.—BBC, Nov. 30, 2006

Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia:

Muslim Eritrea and mostly Christian Ethiopia are still facing off over their disputed border, over which they fought a very bloody and not very conclusive war (1998-2000).  Rumors and preparations for renewed war deflect both nations from addressing their real issues of poverty and economic problems.  They also appear to be waging a proxy war in Somalia, where Eritrea is believed to aid the United Islamic Courts (UIC) against the Baidoa government, which is supported by Ethiopia.  The situation in Somalia remains tense and quite anarchic, as the Ethiopian government engages in direct talks with the UIC. 

Overview: 

The Horn of Africa (Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia) and the North-Central region of Africa (Central African Republic, Chad, Sudan), are locked in bloody, interconnected wars which could easily escalate into a regional war to rival that Great Lakes War (Centered on the Congo, this war involved Chad, the CAR, Rwanda, Burundi, Angola, Namibia, and Zimbabwe, and claimed several million lives).  If Sudan is indeed aiding the rebels in Chad and the CAR, France may be drawn further into the looming Sudan-Chad/CAR conflict.  If the Sudanese government continues to suffer major losses in Darfur, and/or its oil industry, (which provides the money for the military as well as money to help implement the peace deals in the South and East), the SPLA and the Eastern Front rebels may be encouraged to take up arms in a major rebellion.  Add to this scenario the possibility that Ethiopia could be dragged further into the Somalia Civil War.  This could tempt Eritrea to more aggressively aid the United Islamic Courts (UIC), prompting an Ethiopian military response along the Eritrea-Ethiopia border.  Given the strong belief in Washington and other Western capitals that al-Qaida has found new bases and new support in the parts of Somalia controlled by the UIC, and the implied American support for Ethiopia’s involvement, things could become very interesting, very soon.

Vietnam, Somalia, and Iraq: A Comparison of Perceptions

New York Times columnists Dominic Johnson and Dominic Tierney examine the power of perception in recent American military history, and present a very strong case that those perceptions and opinions formed by the media and hence by the public as a whole are not always well-informed or correct. With the War in Iraq as a backdrop, Johnson and Tierney look at the American experiences in Vietnam and Somalia, basically warning against looking at the shallow reporting coming out of Iraq which is skewing public perception.

Johnson and Tierney explain that the Vietnam War’s infamous Tet Offensive of 1968, while an almost total military defeat for the Communist Viet Cong, found itself perceived in the U.S. media and in public opinion as a total American failure. Tet was considered a Communist victory despite the fact that the Viet Cong failed to hold onto a single one of their military objectives, and despite the fact that the Americans and the South Vietnamese destroyed at least half of the Viet Cong forces in this offensive. The power of the media to shape public opinion is well-known, and Tet is a classic example. Images of the Viet Cong attack on the American Embassy in Saigon, though a military failure, were flashed across the world and into the living rooms of millions of American voters in the early months of an American Presidential election year. The misperceptions were also partly the result of the pollyanna “we are wining the war” mantra of the Johnson Administration, making the shock of the sudden Communist attacks all the more mind-blowing for most American civilians. Shortly after Tet, President Johnson declared his non-candidacy in the election, paving the way for Richard Nixon to win and his eventual pullout of American forces from Vietnam, dooming the South Vietnamese, and by extension, the people of Cambodia and Laos to the pain of Communist rule.

Just as in Vietnam, the U.S. and U.N. intervention in the early 1990s was seen by the media and the public as a failure due to the highly-publicized Battle of Mogadishu in 1993. Even though untold thousands of Somali lives were saved from the drought and famine by the intervention, that one single battle in which 18 Americans died, (to the loss of hundreds of Somali fighters), paved the way for American withdrawal. Again, the media flashed pictures around the world and into the living rooms of America, turning a relatively minor battle into a policy-changing media event. Somalia today is a warren of warlord-controlled militias and violent anarchy, amid a growing unease that these conditions are fostering an al-Qaida aligned Islamic militancy which could lead to a larger regional war involving Ethiopia and Eritrea.

The lessons of these two failures of American foreign policy, though not necessarily military failures, leads now to the debate over what to do with the Iraqi question. Whenever American forces meet the insurgents in open battle, as at Turki recently, or in Fallujah earlier on, the insurgents cannot stand, fight, and win. We do win those battles, but the media focuses on the day-by-day statistics of IED explosives, car bombs, and the political problems of the Iraqi government. The frequent picture of burned out car-bombs in Baghdad markets and streets impacts public opinion far more than the much more infrequent television reports out of Kurdistan, which show a functioning society enjoying relative stability, or the many neighborhoods in smaller Iraqi cities that do not suffer the attentions of terrorism or Sunni-Shiite warfare. This is not to say that things are going well in Iraq; quite the contrary. The Sunni-Shiite civil war and the possible breakaway of Kurdistan are very serious problems that must be addressed.

One would hope, that in this modern era so highly touted as the “Information Age,” that the American public, (along with the British and other citizens of the world), can look past the often biased or incorrect perceptions of the media, whether it is from CNN, ABC, Fox, or even al-Jazeera, use the internet as the informative tool that it should be, and gain better knowledge of our problems in Iraq. One image broadcast by the media, such as we saw in Saigon and in Mogadishu, should not set the course of American public opinion, or American government policy.

Check out: The Wars of Perception –By Dominic Johnson and Dominic Tierney of the New York Times: November 28, 2006

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