Lashkar -e- Taiba has received major aid and training from
Pakistan's intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)
in the past, and if Lashkar is indeed implicated in the Mumbai attacks,
India may feel it has to respond with military force against Pakistan.

However, regardless of which Muslim extremist group is behind the
attack, most likely one of their goals is to sabotage the recent
rapprochement between the sub-continent's two most long-standing
enemies.  Pakistan's new civilian leadership has been trying to
increase peace talks with India, but this new policy does not have the
backing of Pakistan's security services, including the powerful
ISI. 

If India retaliates militarily against targets in Pakistan, it could
very well set off another major war between two old foes, who now both
possess nuclear weapons.  This situation could get very worse,
very quickly.

• Attackers entered the Mumbai waterfront via boats near the Gateway
of India monument on Wednesday night. They then hijacked cars,
including a police van, and split into at least three groups to carry
out their attacks.

• One group headed toward the Cafe Leopold, a popular spot for
Western tourists, firing their weapons at people on the street. The
terrorists then opened fire and threw grenades at the Chhatrapati
Shivaji Terminus railway station. As police toward the scene of the
attacks, the terrorists then attacked the Cama Hospital, which is a
medical facility for women and infants. Several people were killed at
the hospital, with the standoff ending Thursday morning.

• Two other groups of attackers entered the Oberoi and Taj Mahal
hotels, taking hostages in both luxury hotels. By Friday, the
authorities claimed that the situation at the Oberoi was over.

• Terrorists took hostages at the Chabad House (at 5 Hormusji Street
- Nariman House – Colaba Mumbai, 400-005 India ), a Jewish religious
center in Mumbai where several Jewish families live. Rabbi Gavriel
Holtzberg, the city's envoy for the community, was being held inside
with his wife, a member of the Hasidic Jewish movement said. Gunmen and
hostages still were believed to be in the house Friday morning when
police retook Chabad House, and reported that 5 hostages and 2
terrorists were found dead.

Explosions at the Chabad House, Mumbai, India.

• Fire brigades battled blazes at both hotels. By early Friday, it
appeared what had been a major fire at the Oberoi had been
extinguished.

• By Friday morning, 146 had been killed in the attacks, including
at least six foreigners, authorities said. An Italian and a Briton were
among the confirmed dead. More than 300 people were wounded, including
seven Britons, three Americans and two Australians.

• At least nine gunmen were killed in fighting with police by Friday
morning. Also among the dead were 14 police officers and the chief of
the Mumbai police anti-terror squad. Authorities said they believe the
attacks were carried out by a total of about 26 terrorists.

• The Indian navy had detained a ship off the west coast with the
help of the Indian coast guard. It is believed that the attackers'
boats came from this ship, and that they believe the ship is from
Karachi, Pakistan. The Pakistani government has denied any involvement
in the Mumbai attacks.

• Several Indian news outlets report a group called the Deccan
Mujahedeen e-mailed them to claim responsibility. Intelligence
officials say little is known about the group. U.S. officials and
security analysts say the sophistication of the attacks may indicate a
more-established group is involved.

Early reports indicate the coordinated attacks targeted at least ten
locations in Mumbai, which is a major financial center in India.
Reports indicate between 87 to 100 people died, with several hundred
wounded.

Indian news sources indicate a group calling itself the Deccan
Mujahedeen claimed credit for the attacks. Targets included two major
hotels frequented by Westerners, as well as the train station and a
hospital. 

As more details emerge, one major thing to look for is who India
blames for this attack.  Many past terrorist attacks have been
blamed on Kashmiri separatists, who in the past have operated with
significant support from Pakistan.  There are elements in the
Indian government and in the military, for strong responses to any
sort of Islamic terrorism, and the more right-wing Hindu nationalist
elements in India will likely cry out for revenge, either on India's
large Muslim minority, or on Pakistan itself.  Either response
would likely play directly into the hands of whichever militant group
is really behind this attack. 

India and Pakistan have fought several wars in the past, and the Kashmir region is a major flashpoint for their ongoing conflict.  Relations have improved greatly since 2002, but recent terrorist attacks against Indian targets in Afghanistan (the Indian embassy) and in Indian cities in July, most likely by Militant Muslim terrorists, have increased the tensions.

Pakistan, India trade fire along LoC–July 26

For a listing of Indo-Pakistani wars, see http://www.historyguy.com/indo_pakistani-wars.html