War and Conflict Journal

New page on the recent political violence in Iran and in Tehran at http://www.historyguy.com/iran_unrest_2009.htm

Iran Wars page updated due to the rising tensions surrounding the disputed Iranian Presidential election and the possible scenarios involving an Israeli attack on Iran in the near future.

Go to: http://www.historyguy.com/wars_of_iran.htm

for more information on the military history of Persia and Iran, and the military history of this ancient nation.

The American helicopter raid into Syria this week which targeted an al-Qaida leader based there, may presage a similar attack into Iran in the near future. Just as missile strikes and a very similar commando raid into Pakistan's border region in September may have foreshadowed this raid into Syria's border area, the next logical target in the ongoing attempt to curtail cross-border aid and supply to al-Qaida and other insurgents into Iraq may be Iran.

Many analysts and pundits have mulled over the possibility of an "October Surprise" in the middle east which could affect the American Presidential race.  The theory being that an international crisis or event could highlight the foreign policy experience of John McCain over his opponent, Barack Obama.  Also, if a major military event took place, the American public may automatically back the party in power (the Republican), and this close to Election Day, that may translate into more votes for McCain.

This theory is faulty on several fronts.  First, the economy will continue to be Issue #1, and little short of a major terror attack on the U.S. homeland will change that.  Second, at this point in the war and in the election campaign, the American public would likely turn on the Bush Administration and, by extension, John McCain if it perceived an attempt to manipulate the election with the lives of American service members.

And then there is the real danger.  George W. Bush and Dick Cheney have been clear that they view the development of Iranian nuclear weapons to be a grave and mortal danger the the United States and its allies, particularly Israel.  Rather than start something with Iran before the election, in what the history books and public opinion would surely condemn as a blatant and heavy-handed attempt to influence the election, it is far more likely that the long-feared "Iran War" will begin after Barack Obama wins the election, which, as of this writing, seems very likely to occur.

Were McCain to take office, Bush and Cheney would likely feel assured that their policies on Iran and the nuclear issue would be carried on by McCain.  The same is not true of a likely Obama Administration.  Thus, in order to save America, Israel, and much of Europe from a nuclear-armed Iran, it is highly likely that at some point in the 77 day transition period between Election Day and Inauguration Day, an incident will occur, or a commando raid similar to those carried out on Pakistan and Syria will take place on Iranian soil.  Or, Israel may elect to attack Iran itself, with the full assurance of American support and involvement.

If Obama wins, watch for signs of military buildup and preparation.  This Iran War scenario is all the more likely after the raids on Pakistan and Syria.  After all, what do President Bush and Vice-President Cheney have to worry about if the American public disapproves of such a war?  Elect them out of office?  President Obama may be faced with a much more dangerous, chaotic, and violent world than now exists.

Signs point to a possible U.S./NATO/Israeli war against Iran/Syria/Hezbollah in the near future.

Tensions between Israel and Syria escalated in early April as Israel conducts nation-wide civil defense drills simulating a domestic response to a potential Hezbollah/Syrian/Iranian attack with biological and chemical weapons. This drill comes amid continued Hezbollah threats to avenge the recent assassination of one of its leaders. Supposedly in response to Israel’s drill, Syria has put its military on alert.

In addition, Israel recently conducted a joint naval exercise with NATO forces in the Mediterranean Sea. France, Britain, Germany and other NATO nations, including the U.S. have been warning of Iran’s nuclear ambitions this past year.

It is widely assumed in the U.S. and throughout the world, that the Bush/Cheney Administration, unsure of John McCain’s chances of beating the Democrats for the White House, and unwilling to leave a potentially nuclear Iran to be dealt with by an Obama or Clinton administration, will do whatever it takes to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. As of April, 2008, only ten months remain for President Bush to act. Also, a preemptive war against Iran, if it goes well (a decidedly big IF), will likely boost Senator McCain’s chances against the presumed Clinton and/or Obama Democratic ticket in November.

The recent removal of Admiral Fallon, a critic of a potential Iran War, also clears the way within the military leadership for a fully-supported effort to exercise the will of the Commander-in-Chief.

Time will tell if this war scenario plays out, but the odds are heavily stacked in favor of a wider regional war pitting the Western allies (plus Israel) against Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah.

Links and Sources:

Syria Plans Emergency Drill amid Fears of War with Israel–Voice of America, April 9, 2008

Israeli intel projects a one-month war with Syria–World Tribune.com, April 9, 2008

US Military Strike set on Iran? by W. Joseph Stroupe of the International Analyst Network, April 7, 2008

Turkish forces bombed Kurdish PKK rebels based in northern Iraq in aerial attacks on December 1st and on December 16th, with both attacks aided by intelligence supplied by the United States. Earlier in the Autumn, Turkey hinted at an invasion of northern Iraq to get at the rebels, a move opposed by both the U.S. and the Iraqi government.

While the Turks are within their rights to strike at an enemy combatant force with whom they have been at war with since the 1980s, the U.S. is not the sovereign power in Iraq; officially, sovereign power rests with the Iraqi government in Baghdad, and reports indicate that the government, especially the Kurdish members of the government are quite angry at this attack and at U.S. complicity.

While the U.S. can claim that it is aiding a fellow NATO member defend itself, and that the PKK is considered a terrorist group, allowing the Turks to strike inside Iraq does open up the question of what the Bush Administration would do if Iran launched a similar cross-border strike against their own Kurdish rebels who also use northern Iraq as a base.

U.S. Helps Turkey Hit Rebel Kurds In Iraq: Intelligence Role Could Complicate Diplomacy–Washington Post Staff, December 18, 2007

Turkey’s U.S.-Backed Strike in Iraq–Time, Dec. 17, 2007

Recent events in the Middle East and elsewhere raise the question, not of if, but when, a U.S.-led war on Iran will begin.

Some points to ponder:

         1.  Turkey (an Iran neighbor) is threatening to attack Kurdish rebel (PKK) bases in northern Iraq (also an Iran neighbor).

         2.  Iran has recently been shelling Kurdish rebel (PEJAK) bases in northern Iraq.

         3.  Recent war fears related to the Turkey/Kurd conflict pushed oil prices past the $90 a barrel mark.

         4.  Evidence mounts that Vice-President Dick Cheney is urging President Bush to launch a war on Iran prior to Jan. 20, 2008, when they both must leave office to make way for the new president.  Most likely such an attack on Iran will take place after the election, so as to not affect the Republican nominee’s chances of winning.  See Rolling Stone Magazine’s recent article. Znet,  Atlantic Free Press

         5.  Some conspiracy theorists contend that the recent revelation of an unauthorized  nuclear-armed B-52 flight across the United States was not truly some kind of incredible error or once-in-a-lifetime chain of events leading to a huge mistake, but a part of some conspiracy or cover-up.  One theory is that the nuclear-tipped cruise missiles were intended for the Middle East and for targets in Iran, and that the flight to Louisiana was some sort of quiet "rebellion" in the ranks of the Air Force.  See

          6.  Israel’s recent air strike on Syria looks more and more like an Osirak-style raid to stop an Arab nation from acquiring nuclear weapons.  The New York Times and ABC News report that the target in Syria was a nuclear facility being built with North Korean aid.

          7.  Iran and Russia are getting cozy, and Russia is Iran’s main supplier of weapons.  The Bush administration may be tempted to attack Iran soon, before the Moscow-Tehran relationship turns into a real alliance. 

The world is at a vital turning point.  A U.S. attack on Iran could have serious consequences for the entire world.  These recent events show that strange things are occurring and the world public is left wondering.  We shall see what the future holds…

A report by Newsweek claims that Vice-President Cheney considered asking Israel to attack Iran, in hopes of provoking an Iranian response which could then be used as a pretext for a U.S. attack on Iran.

This is not an unlikely scenario for the anticipated new Middle Eastern War to begin.  Coming on the heels of the Israeli airstrike on a Syrian target (perhaps a nuclear target in Syria also involving North Korea), this report creates more questions about how involved America was in the strike on Syria.

Cheney mulled Israeli strike on Iran – Newsweek

Recent developments involving Syria, Iran, and North Korea continue to instill deep worries of a soon-to-begin Middle Eastern War with global implications and connections.

According to Jane’s Defense Weekly, an explosion in northern Syria in July, 2007, killed at least 15 Syrian soldiers, as well as many Iranian engineers.  The explosion was supposedly caused by an accident involving a chemical warhead as it was loaded onto a Scud missile.  North Korea supplies Scud missiles and warheads to Syria, and Iran is a long-time ally of Syria.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that Israel did indeed launch a heretofore secret air strike on Syrian territory on September 6, 2007.  He did not specify what the target was or why it was so important to attack and risk war.  He also revealed a moment of unity between Israel’s rival political parties; Prime Minister Olmert consulted with opposition leader Netanyahu prior to the attack.  Netanyahu said that he agreed with the military mission over Syria.

Meanwhile, reports from Syria indicate a movement within the ruling circles of the Baathist government in Damascus, that Syria must perform some sort of military response to what is now an overt attack by Israel. 

Both sides have spoken of being prepared for war this summer, along with publicly alleged desire for peace.  Syria has been upgrading its military, particularly its missile forces, with large purchases from Russia.  Israel has spent the summer with increased training for its ground forces.  The Israeli army performed poorly in its combat with Hezbollah in the 2006 Second Lebanon War. 

The War and Conflict Journal believes that the evidence of mutual military buildups, internal politics in both countries, and a perceived sense that "something" must be done about each other. Both Israel and Syria see each other as a major threat, and many leaders in each nation feel that a war may serve as a way to either reduce a perceived threat, or prove to itself and its allies that it can stand up to the ancient enemy.

A new Middle Eastern, Arab-Israeli War is about to begin, and it will be the bloodiest, most expensive war in Israel’s history.  This time, Syria has missiles that can drop large conventional (and chemical) warheads on Israeli cities.  Once war begins, Israel will have to seize Syrian territory, up to and including the capital of Damascus, in order to force the missile attacks to stop.  Such a war could easily tempt Hezbollah to launch its missiles and rockets at Israel again, as they did in 2006.  Lebanon would again become a battleground.  And Iran, ally and patron to both Syria and Hezbollah, may also enter the fray, which in turn could cause the United States and other Western allies to join the war as an opportunity to abort Iran’s growing nuclear abilities.

A 2007 October War could easily escalate into a regional nightmare.  All sides must tread carefully.

Syrian official: Damascus eager to respond to Israel flyover–YNet News, Sept. 20, 2007

Netanyahu confirms secret attack on Syria–The Guardian, Sept. 21, 2007