War and Conflict Journal

Korean tensions increase over South Korean ship attack by North Korea. The U.S. has 28,500 troops defending South Korea and a treaty obligation to aid the South in the event of war with North Korea.  This one could get very, very, bad!  North Korea’s military capabilities, especially with their active nuclear weapons arsenal, make the worries over Iran’s nukes look like a tempest at a tea party (no pun intended!)
http://www.historyguy.com/korean_border_conflicts.htm

On November 09, 2009, a North Korean naval vessel entered South Korean waters, refused to return to the North, and then was brought under fire by the South Korean navy. The North Korean ship was partially destroyed, and managed to escape back across the Naval Limit Line, which is the sea-border between the Koreas. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Northern incursion came only days before U.S. President Barack Obama was due to visite East Asia. It is common for the Pyongyang regime to seek attention from the U.S. and from the world as a whole in order to put it’s own agenda on the table and to force other nations to deal with North Korea.
The naval battle took place near the South Korean-held island of Daecheong-do, 125 miles west of the South Korean capital of Seoul. The island is located ja mere 18 miles from the North Korean coast.

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_naval_battle_2009.htm

North Korea launched five short-range missiles into the sea and declared a “no-sail zone” for the week of October 12.  The missile launches came as South Korea called for more talks on the Korean Nuclear Issue.

See also:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8302841.stm

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_nuclear_crisis.htm

In a possible sign that North Korea is more willing to work with the international community on several pressing issues, Pyongyang released four South Korean fishermen and their boat, which the North seized on July 30, after the fishing boat strayed into Northern waters.

Earlier this month, the Communist North freed two American journalists after a visit from former President Bill Clinton, and later  freed a South Korean worker after more than four months of captivity. On Friday the two Koreas agreed to resume reunions of families divided by the Korean War (1950-1953).

See also:

http://warandconflictjournal.com/2009/07/north-korea-captures-south-korean-fishing-boat//

July 29, 2009- North Korean naval forces seized a South Korean fishing vessel early on the morning of July 29, 2009, after it accidentally strayed into North Korean waters. The South Korean governement asked the Pyongyang regime to release the fishing boat and to return the four crewmen. The captured ship is 29 tons and is called the “800 Yeonan.” The South claims the ship strayed into North Korean waters due to a satellite navigation system error or malfunction.

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_border_conflicts.htm

On July 2, 2009, North Korea launched four more short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan.  Fears abound that the North Koreans may launch a ballistic missile toward Hawaii over the July 4th weekend.

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_nuclear_crisis.htm

On May 28, the Chief of Staff of the United States Army declared that the U.S. has the ability to successfully fight a new war in Korea, despite fighting counter-insurgency wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  See the full article at:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_pentagon_nkorea

Also, Chinese fishing boats fled the waters off of Korea in response to the ongoing crisis between North Korea and the U.S., and South Korea.

See the full article at:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090529/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear

North Korea continues to make threatening announcements and conduct threatening actions since the detonation a nuclear device on May 23.  Since conducting that nuclear test, the Communist dictatorship has launched at least six short-range missiles into the sea, and made very belligerent, (even for North Korea!) threats and comments.  On May 27, 2009, North Korea threatened to attack South Korea if ships from the North are searched as part a U.S.-led effort to stop vessels suspected of carrying missiles or weapons of mass destruction (WOMDs). North Korea also declared the truce that ended the Korean War in 1953 as invalid.  South Korea decided to join the international effort to search North Korean vessels suspected of carrying missiles or WOMDs.  South Korea had refrained from doing so in the past, but with the Northern nuclear test on May 23, the situation changed and the South decided to send a message to the North.

Also unusual in the world reaction to this North Korean nuclear test, is the public condemnation of the North by the closest things it has to friends; China and Russia.

Many analysts are saying that this is mere saber-rattling by Kim Jong-Il, just as in the past, and that things will quiet down, especially if the world tries to pay the North off to keep quiet for a while.  While that is the most likely scenario, given past history, it should also be noted that absolute dictatorships often make very bad decisions in the case of war and peace.  Hitler made several very unwise decisions that led to the destruction of Germany.  Saddam Hussein thought Iran would be a soft target in the throes of its violent revolution, only to end up with an eight-year war and hundreds of thousands of dead.  And Saddam also thought he could gobble up Kuwait without any fuss.  Oh, and he really did not expect George W. Bush to invade in 2003.  And those Generals in Argentina who believed the British would never fight for a few cold, remote islands in the South Atlantic.  In each case, the dictators in question ended up out of power, and, in the cases of Hitler and Saddam, ended up dead because they miscalculated the results of starting wars.

The point here is, that while the world thinks that the North Korean leaders will not start a fight they cannot win; they may actually think they CAN win.  Remember, Obama is a new president, untested in the eyes of much of the world, and the U.S. IS in the middle of two major wars.  When the North Koreans attacked and seized the American ship, the USS Pueblo in the late 1960s, the U.S. was in the middle of the Vietnam War.  North Korea gambled correctly, and no American military action against North Korea took place as a result.  If Kim Jong-Il is looking at history as a guide, he may be looking at how his father embarrassed the Americans, not how Hitler, Saddam, and the Argentine Junta ended up!

For more information on this topic, go to:

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_nuclear_crisis.htm

and

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_border_conflicts.htm

The Korean War (1950-1953) officially never really ended. Major fighting between North Korea and South Korea (and the South’s allies, the United States and the UN), ended with an armistice signed on July 27, 1953. Over the 50-plus years, numerous border battles, clashes, incidents, espionage thrillers, assassination attempts, and terrorist acts have occurred between North and South Korea, often involving American forces as well.
Since the “end” of the Korean War in 1953, Communist North Korea has gained a reputation as a rogue state, ruled by a brutal and paranoid Stalinist dictatorship that the West cannot trust. Long known as a supplier of advanced missile and rocket technology to other rogue regimes and terrorist organizations, North Korea entered a new phase as a major concern the rest of the world in 2006. On October of that year, North Korea tested its first nuclear device, and joined the small group of nuclear-armed nations. Repeated test launches of various types of missiles also increased the tension in East Asia. On May 23, 2009, North Korea announced the test detonation of its second nuclear bomb.

To see the timeline of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis, go to: http://www.historyguy.com/korean_nuclear_crisis.htm

Recent events in the Middle East and elsewhere raise the question, not of if, but when, a U.S.-led war on Iran will begin.

Some points to ponder:

         1.  Turkey (an Iran neighbor) is threatening to attack Kurdish rebel (PKK) bases in northern Iraq (also an Iran neighbor).

         2.  Iran has recently been shelling Kurdish rebel (PEJAK) bases in northern Iraq.

         3.  Recent war fears related to the Turkey/Kurd conflict pushed oil prices past the $90 a barrel mark.

         4.  Evidence mounts that Vice-President Dick Cheney is urging President Bush to launch a war on Iran prior to Jan. 20, 2008, when they both must leave office to make way for the new president.  Most likely such an attack on Iran will take place after the election, so as to not affect the Republican nominee’s chances of winning.  See Rolling Stone Magazine’s recent article. Znet,  Atlantic Free Press

         5.  Some conspiracy theorists contend that the recent revelation of an unauthorized  nuclear-armed B-52 flight across the United States was not truly some kind of incredible error or once-in-a-lifetime chain of events leading to a huge mistake, but a part of some conspiracy or cover-up.  One theory is that the nuclear-tipped cruise missiles were intended for the Middle East and for targets in Iran, and that the flight to Louisiana was some sort of quiet "rebellion" in the ranks of the Air Force.  See

          6.  Israel’s recent air strike on Syria looks more and more like an Osirak-style raid to stop an Arab nation from acquiring nuclear weapons.  The New York Times and ABC News report that the target in Syria was a nuclear facility being built with North Korean aid.

          7.  Iran and Russia are getting cozy, and Russia is Iran’s main supplier of weapons.  The Bush administration may be tempted to attack Iran soon, before the Moscow-Tehran relationship turns into a real alliance. 

The world is at a vital turning point.  A U.S. attack on Iran could have serious consequences for the entire world.  These recent events show that strange things are occurring and the world public is left wondering.  We shall see what the future holds…