War and Conflict Journal

Iranian forces crossed the border into northern Iraq to strike at a Kurdish Iranian rebel group in retaliation for a  bombing inside Iran that killed 12  in a military parade in the town of Mahabad.  Iran claimed to have killed 30 rebels on the Iraqi side of the border.

According to the BBC on Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Four Israelis killed in West Bank

Four Israelis have been shot dead in the West Bank, Israeli police say.

Their vehicle came under fire on a road between the settlement of Kiryat Arba and the Palestinian village of Bani Naim, near the city of Hebron.

The military wing of the Palestinian Islamist movement, Hamas, said it had carried out the “heroic operation”.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it showed there should be “no compromise” on Israeli security demands at the relaunched direct peace talks.

Hamas supporters in the Gaza Strip celebrated news of the West Bank attack
“The prime minister ordered the security forces to act without diplomatic limitations in order to catch the murderers,” his spokesman, Nir Hefetz, said on arrival in the US ahead of Thursday’s meeting between Mr Netanyahu, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Washington.

“Terror will not determine Israel’s borders or the future of the settlements,” Mr Hefetz added.

Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad also condemned the attack, saying it went “against Palestinian interests”.

The White House condemned the killings in the “strongest possible terms,” adding that all parties must “continue working to achieve a just and lasting peace in the region”.

US state department spokesman PJ Crowley said: “There may well be actors in the region who are deliberately making these kinds of attacks in order to try to sabotage the process.”

‘Grave incident’

The attack took place near Bani Naim after dark on Highway 60, a busy route used by both Palestinians and Jewish settlers.

The four victims – two men and two women, one of whom was pregnant – were reportedly shot at from a passing vehicle.

Video footage showed a white estate car standing at an angle on the side of the road, its windows shot out and its doors riddled with bullet holes. Officials said all four victims were from the Beit Haggai settlement.

“This was a terrorist attack and the army is treating it as a grave incident,” Israeli army spokeswoman Lt-Col Avital Leibovich told reporters.

It was the first fatal shooting in the West Bank since mid-June, when a police officer was killed, and the most lethal attack in the West Bank in four years, when a suicide bombing killed four people at a settlement.

“Security was stable for the past few years and we hope this will not cause any deterioration,” Col Leibovich said.

On its website, the Izz al-Din Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s military wing, declared “its full responsibility for the heroic operation in Hebron”.

Earlier, Hamas spokesman Sami Abu-Zuhri said the attack had been “a natural response to the crimes of the occupation”.

He said it was also proof of a “failure of security co-ordination” between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip from the Fatah-dominated PA in June 2007.

Hebron, in which some 500 Jewish settlers live in fortified enclaves amid about 100,000 Palestinians, has long been a flashpoint for violence.

The BBC’s Wyre Davies in Jerusalem says there was no warning an attack like this would take place, and the incident is likely to strain negotiations this week.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Mr Netanyahu will attend a meeting with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Washington on Thursday in what will be their first direct talks in nearly two years.

Before leaving the West Bank, Mr Abbas urged “Israel not to miss this historic opportunity for peace,” saying that “if there is only a 1% chance of achieving peace we will strive for it”.

Mr Netanyahu meanwhile said he hoped for “a peace based on recognition, security, stability and economic prosperity between the two peoples that will endure for us and our children”.

Both sides have agreed to place a one-year time limit on the direct negotiations, but correspondents say prospects of a comprehensive deal are slim, as serious disagreements exist on the core issues.

On August 21, 2010, Iran, with Russian aid, began inserting the fuel rods into the Bushehr reactor. Some analysts believed that Israel would not risk an attack after August 21 for because of the risk of serious nuclear contamination throughout the Gulf region if the reactor were to be destroyed. However, other analysts see evidence of war preparations by Israel, Syria, and Iran. Clues these analysts see include:
–Ongoing publicity and concern in Israel over the Gallant Scandal, which some Arab sources see as a smokescreen to deflect attention away from war preparations by Israel.
–The presence of Iranian Revolutionary Guards chief Gen. Mohamed Ali Jafari in Damascus, apparantly for discussions on coordinating Syrian, Hezbollah, and Iranian military responses to an Israeli strike.
–Statements made by Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas saying that direct peace talks with Israel were not in the likely because “a big military surprise awaits the Middle East.”

See also: http://www.historyguy.com/iranwar.htm

Lebanon’s poorly equipped army is soliciting donations to make up for reduced American aid.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-10976438

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Russian sources associated with that nation’s assistance program with Iran’s nuclear program announced that by August 21, 2010, the fuel rods necessary to power the Bushehr nuclear reactor will be installed. Some analysts, such as John Bolton, former
U.S. ambassador to the U.N., believe that announcement creates a deadline by which Israel will attack the
Bushehr reactor. According to Bolton, an Israeli strike at the Iranian reactor must come before the nuclear
material is installed, otherwise, an attack could spread radioactive material throughout parts of the Middle East.

Also, in August, 2010, an article was published by The Atlantic magazine which presents facts and opinions on the possibility of an Israeli strike at Iran. The Atlantic article concludes that there is a 50 percent likelihood that Israel will strike the Iranian nuclear program by July, 2011.

See also:  http://www.historyguy.com/iranwar.htm

Just as international analysts express growing concerns over the possibility of a renewal of all-out war involving Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, and possibly Syria, new clashes are reported along the tense Israel-Lebanon border in early August,  2010.  According to early reports, at least four were killed in mutual artillery fire across the border.

Israel said an Israeli battalion commander was killed, and Lebanon claimed at least two of its soldiers and a journalist were killed in shelling. 

According to the New York Times:

The skirmish began when Israeli soldiers were conducting activities along the border area. There are conflicting reports about whether Israelis were installing a surveillance camera on a fence or clearing a tree.

Lebanese officials said Israelis had crossed the border into Lebanon, but Israeli military officials denied the claim, saying they were in Israeli territory.

Lebanese soldiers said they fired warning shots at the Israelis, prompting a brief but heavy exchange of fire.

Israeli military officials said they returned fire with light arms and artillery and then dispatched helicopters several minutes later to attack a Lebanese command center, damaging several armored combat vehicles.

This marks the most serious combat along the border since the month-long war between Lebanon/Hezbollah and Israel in the summer of 2006.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-israel-lebanon-20100804,0,6928535.story

http://dover.idf.il/IDF/English/News/today/10/08/0302.htm

A new article at Debka.com relates concerns that Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah may be preparing for a summer, 2010 war against Israel.  See the article at Debka.com’s site: http://www.debka.com/article/8745/

And the History Guy page at http://www.historyguy.com/iranwar.htm

The Sa’dah War in Yemen appears to be over, for now at least. The rebels have agreed to stop fighting the government and Yemen’s Saudi allies. This now allows the Yemen gov. to concentrate on the al-Qaida threat and the Southern secessionists. http://www.historyguy.com/yemen_saada_war.htm

Fatah vs. Usbat al-Ansar (Feb. 2010)–Fighting in the Ain al-Helweh refugee camp in southern Lebanon. Four killed.  Renewed combat in the permanent Palestinian “refugee camps” of Lebanon as Fatah and the Islamist militia Usbat al-Ansar battle for territory and control.  Under a 1969 agreement between the Palestinians and the Lebanese government, the Lebanese Army does not interfere with in-fighting within the Palestinian camps.

http://www.historyguy.com/palestinian_civil_wars_conflicts.htm

http://www.historyguy.com/wars_of_lebanon.htm

The world is slowly creeping toward the long-awaited and long-feared Iran War.  What is this ‘Iran War?”  At some point, Iran will be attacked, most likely by Israel, perhaps less likely by the United States or some coalition of Western powers.  But the ongoing concerns regarding Iran’s continued nuclear weapons development and the collapse of any reasonable diplomatic scenarios will lead Israel’s leadership with the belief that they have no choice but to strike the Islamic Republic of Iran before they can attack Israel with the nuclear weapons Iran is developing.

Two recent developments in particular shows that Israel is growing increasingly concerned.  First, the Israeli cabinet decided to fund a program to provide gas masks to all Israelis.  This is an obvious preparation for the possibility of missile attacks on Israel from Iran and/or Iranian allies Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria.

Second, on January 12, 2010, a leading Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated by a remote-controlled bomb in Tehran.  It is widely assumed that Israel is behind this killing in an apparent attempt to delay the Iranian nuclear program. 

See also: http://www.historyguy.com/iranwar.htm