War and Conflict Journal

The 2010 Kyrgyzstan Uprising  that appears to have overthrown the government of President Kurmanbek Saliyevich Bakiyev, comes amid rising political corruption and increasing poverty in this strategically-located former Soviet Republic.  Both the U.S and Russia maintain military based in Kyrgystan, and the Manas base used by American forces is a vital link in the supply chain supporting allied forces fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan.  This conflict, if it devolves into outright civil war, could bring Russia and America into the fray, and (worse case scenario) not necessarily on the same side.  This conflict bears watching…
http://historyguy.com/Kyrgyzstan_uprising_2010.htm

While the war itself is not yet over, several points can be examined in how this conflict unfolded and the early course of the war, as well as some apparent consequences of this Russia-Georgia war:

–It now appears clear that Georgia was duped into attacking South Ossetia and that the Russians had laid a trap to make the Georgians fire the first shots, thereby letting Russia claim to be pushing back an aggressor. According to Stratfor, a private American intelligence company, Russian forces were pre-positioned near the border, therefore more able to respond quickly to attack the Georgians when they moved into South Ossetia on August 8. While the timing of the Georgian attack took the Russians by surprise, their inability to seize the South Ossetian capital and thus their delay in pushing on to the strategically important Roki Tunnel, allowed Russia to pour troops into Ossetia and force back the Georgian military.

–The early Russian bombing campaign was critical to Russia’s rout of the Georgian military. Russia has obviously learned from other recent conflicts, including the Kosovo War, their own Chechen Wars, and the American Wars against Iraq in the 1990s as well as the current Iraq War. In those conflicts, swift and overpowering use of air power against enemy military facilities, air bases, and transportation and logistical targets disrupted the defender’s plans and enabled the invading forces a powerful advantage.

–Georgia assumed that because of their cooperation with America in Iraq, and their application to join NATO, America would be more proactive in helping Georgia against Russia. This appears to have been foolish and naive wishful thinking. With major American military assets tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan, and with a possible Iran War looming, the United States is in no position to risk war with Russia.

–Poland, which suffered from Russian invasions, massacres, and depredations multiple times in the 20th century, came to a quick agreement with the United States that will place an American missile defense base in Poland. This long-delayed agreement was reached by the Americans and Poles in an obvious response to what the Poles see as Russian aggression in Georgia.

–President George W. Bush, while eager to force democratic change in relatively weak Iraq and Afghanistan, is clearly not eager to defend a more-or-less existing democratic regime, as in Georgia, against an obvious (and relatively powerful) non-democratic aggressor.

–A corollary to the above statement is that America is dangerously overextended through numerous global commitments (not all of these commitments are wars) that limit the America’s ability to respond to new conflicts and challenges as they occur.  Case in point, even if the U.S. were willing to place American ground forces in harm’s way, even as a blocking force, they would not be able to assert themselves with any numbers or resources due to the Iraq and Afghan wars, as well as other commitments in Korea, Kosovo, and elsewhere.

–Most likely, Iran, North Korea, China, and other possible future aggressors are likely taking notes on America’s apparent fear of engaging in a possible conflict with a powerful nation, even to defend a close ally. 

–America’s smaller and more vulnerable allies should also pay attention to this abandonment of an American ally and fear the potential threats on the horizon and the likely American response, or non-response.  Taiwan should update their scenarios of a Communist Chinese attack and decide what to do if President Bush (or his successor) help them the same way he is aiding Georgia.

For regularly updated information on the ongoing war between Russia and Georgia, visit: The Georgia-Russia War at Historyguy.com

The United States increased its public criticism of Russia on Sunday, August 10, as the Russians and their Abkhazian proxies opened a second front in their war against the former Soviet Republic of Georgia. As the U.S. Air Force ferried Georgia’s Iraq contingent back home, American political and national security officials made some possibly disturbing public comments about possible American involvement in the Georgia-Russia War:

"[Vice-President Dick] Cheney was even more pointed, telling [Georgian President] Saakashvili on Sunday afternoon that "Russian aggression must not go unanswered," according to his press secretary.

Briefing reporters traveling with Bush on Sunday, Deputy National Security Adviser James F. Jeffrey would not rule out the use of American force to assist Georgia but said that was not the current focus of U.S. efforts. "–Washington Post, August 10, 2008

An interesting, and very important point here, is that a top American National Security official, James Jeffrey, said the U.S. would not "rule out the use of American force…" in aiding Georgia. If this were any other nation in that part of the world, this would be a credible threat, but realistically, what can the U.S. do short of sending a few thousand Marines or an Airborne brigade into harm’s way? If the Russians drive on the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, the U.S. could send in troops to act as a trip-wire, (i.e. this means playing a deadly game of "chicken" with the Russians in their own backyard), daring them to attack what would at first be a thin screen of American troops likely blocking the approaches to the Georgian capital. With a lot of our military resources tied up in ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, where would we get the troops to help the Georgians? Air power? Again, unless the Turks let the U.S. fly out of Incirlik air base in Turkey, or at least grant overfly rights for from American bases in Iraq, how would we get to Georgia? And could the U.S. realistically achieve air superiority over Georgia? Russia has bases much nearer the war zone, and would not have the logistical issues the U.S. would face. On the other hand, every time American-made warplanes engaged Soviet and Russian-made warplanes over the skies of Indochina or in the various Arab-Israeli wars, the Russian-made products fared badly. Though it is probably safe to assume that Russian pilots are better trained and more skilled than Syrian or Vietnamese pilots of those past wars.

Whatever planning is going on in the Pentagon and at the White House, (and you know many American military and strategic professionals are pulling all-nighters preparing for the possibility of American intervention in the Georgia-Russia War, they had best look at this realistically. Miscalculations of enemy intent and capabilities have started some very big wars in the past.

For regularly updated information on the ongoing war between Russia and Georgia, visit: The Georgia-Russia War at Historyguy.com

By August 10, Russian air power continued to dominate the skies above Georgia, with bombing of the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. Also, the war expanded to the naval front, with the Russian navy deploying warships off the Georgian coast. The Kremlin asserted that Russian forces sank a Georgian missile boat that attempted to attack Russian naval forces off the Black Sea coast. The Georgians said that Russian tanks had invaded Georgia proper, having moved south out of Ossetia into Georgian territory.

The Ukraine, where the Russian ships are based, said that it had the right to deny re-docking privileges to the ships upon their return. Ukraine, like Georgia, has sought to move away from Russian influence and seek to join NATO. Also on the 10th, American military transport aircraft began ferrying Georgia’s Iraq contingent back home to face the invading Russians.

Russian and Abkhazian troops moved into the Georgian-contolled Kodori Gorge on on August 10, in a major expansion of the war.

For regularly updated information on the ongoing war between Russia and Georgia, visit: The Georgia-Russia War at Historyguy.com

Sources and Links:

Georgia under all-out attack in breakaway Abkhazia: Separatist rebels and Russian forces launch attack on Georgian stronghold in Black Sea territory–Guardian.co.uk, August 10, 2008

Russia expands Georgia blitz, deploys ships–Associated Press, August 10, 2008

Wars and Conflicts of Georgia

Georgia suffered under Soviet rule from the early 1920s to the declaration of independence in April of 1991. Even before independence, Georgia engaged in conflict, as the Georgian region of South Ossetia engaged in a breakaway war, which has flared up over the past two decades. Several Civil Wars and Army rebellions have plagued Georgia since 1989 (While still a part of the Soviet Union). In August, 2008, the South Ossetia issue again flared into warfare, though this time, Georgia’s old ruler, Russia, intervened and the war is now (as of August 9, 2008) escalating rapidly.

Click here for the full list of wars and conflicts involving the former Soviet Republic of Georgia, (including the current Georgia-Russia War).

Warfare broke out again in the Caucusus region of the former Soviet Union, as Georgian government forces attacked the separatist region of South Ossetia with ground forces and warplanes. South Ossetia broke away from Georgia in a violent rebellion from 1991 to 1992. In 1992, a cease-fire was arranged which effectively established South Ossetian independence, with Russia siding with the Ossetian rebels. Clashes between Georgia and South Ossetia broke out over the past week, killing at least 20. That flare-up of violence stopped with a Russian-brokered cease-fire, but now is ended.

Georgia has continually vowed to bring South Ossetia back into the fold, and now appears to be backing up that rhetoric. Georgia, which is allied with the United States and is seeking membership in NATO, risks Russian intervention.

Links:

http://www.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUSL8718565._CH_.2400

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/country_profiles/3797729.stm

Weekly Update–Week of November 25, 2007

Iraq War Casualties (U.S.)–As of Nov. 25, 2007

U.S. Military Casualties:

    Total Fatalities–3,875

    Fatalities due to Hostile Action–3,157

    Total Wounded–28,350

    U.S. Civilian Fatalities–158  (Contractors killed in Iraq)

Total Allied Fatalities:  300

Malaysia’s ethnic Indian community staged its largest anti-government protest on Sunday, November 25, 2007, with more than 10,000 protesters taking to the streets to complain about racial discrimination. Police fired tear gas and used water cannons to break up the protests. At least 20 were arrested.

Israel-Palestinian Conflict:

The upcoming peace conference at Annapolis, Maryland will host not only leaders from the U.S., Israel and the Palestinian Authority, but it will also feature representatives from the governments of Syria and Saudi Arabia. Diplomats from the Arab League, the European Union, Russia, and China are also expected to attend.

Fighting broke out November 25 between Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters of Fatah’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade. Three Palestinian militants were killed, and seven others were injured in the West Bank and Gaza Strip during armed clashes with Israeli soldiers. Over 35 people were arrested in the West Bank. Dozens of Israeli soldiers with armored vehicles entered the Marba’ at Hanoun neighborhood of Ramallah on the West Bank and exchanged shots with Fatah’s military wing. Also on Nov. 25, Israeli forces killed two Palestinian militants from the Islamic Jihad and the Popular Resistance Committees (PRC) in the area east of al-Maghazi refugee camp in central Gaza Strip.

South America:

Venezuela and Colombia moved toward a diplomatic crisis on Sunday Nov. 25, following an an exchange of insults between Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez and the Colombian President, Álvaro Uribe. The two South American nations are neighbors, but Chavez is a major critic of American policies in Latin America, while Uribe is supported by the Bush Administration. Columbia is fighting a leftist insurgency and in the past, Colombia has expressed concern over large Venezuelan arms purchases; fearing that some of the small-arms purchased with Chavez’ oil money may end up in the hands of Colombian rebels. Look for the Bush Administration to support Colombia in any dispute with Chavez.

Thailand:

The Thai Army captured the eight Muslim insurgents arrested in a raid November 24, 2007 on an insurgent hideout in the troubled southern province of Narathiwat, Thailand.

Since January 2004, more than 2,600 people have died in fighting and terrorism in the Muslim-majority southern provinces of Pattani, Narathiwat and Yala where Muslim insurgents are fighting for independence from Thailand.

Sri Lanka:

Sri Lankan air force jets attacked a satellite communications center operated by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), in an attempt to reduce the Tamil rebels’ intelligence gathering-capability. The military attacked a Tamil base at Dharmapuram, near the LTTE’s headquarters at Kilinochchi in northern Sri Lanka, on November 25. The LTTE claimed the attack was on a civilian settlement, killing four people.

In a separate clash, the Sri Lankan army repulsed an attack by the Tamil Tigers Nov. 25 near Mannar in the northwest, killing at least five rebels.

Nepal:

Nepal’s former rebel leader, Prachanda, threatened to renew the long-standing civil war if his demands for immediate abolition of the monarchy are not met. Prachanda and his Maoist followers, while giving up the armed struggle for now, have been arguing with mainstream political parties over their demands for Nepal to be immediately declared a republic. The Maoists ended their decade-long insurgency in November of 2006. The Nepal Civil War claimed over 13,000 lives.

Recent events in the Middle East and elsewhere raise the question, not of if, but when, a U.S.-led war on Iran will begin.

Some points to ponder:

         1.  Turkey (an Iran neighbor) is threatening to attack Kurdish rebel (PKK) bases in northern Iraq (also an Iran neighbor).

         2.  Iran has recently been shelling Kurdish rebel (PEJAK) bases in northern Iraq.

         3.  Recent war fears related to the Turkey/Kurd conflict pushed oil prices past the $90 a barrel mark.

         4.  Evidence mounts that Vice-President Dick Cheney is urging President Bush to launch a war on Iran prior to Jan. 20, 2008, when they both must leave office to make way for the new president.  Most likely such an attack on Iran will take place after the election, so as to not affect the Republican nominee’s chances of winning.  See Rolling Stone Magazine’s recent article. Znet,  Atlantic Free Press

         5.  Some conspiracy theorists contend that the recent revelation of an unauthorized  nuclear-armed B-52 flight across the United States was not truly some kind of incredible error or once-in-a-lifetime chain of events leading to a huge mistake, but a part of some conspiracy or cover-up.  One theory is that the nuclear-tipped cruise missiles were intended for the Middle East and for targets in Iran, and that the flight to Louisiana was some sort of quiet "rebellion" in the ranks of the Air Force.  See

          6.  Israel’s recent air strike on Syria looks more and more like an Osirak-style raid to stop an Arab nation from acquiring nuclear weapons.  The New York Times and ABC News report that the target in Syria was a nuclear facility being built with North Korean aid.

          7.  Iran and Russia are getting cozy, and Russia is Iran’s main supplier of weapons.  The Bush administration may be tempted to attack Iran soon, before the Moscow-Tehran relationship turns into a real alliance. 

The world is at a vital turning point.  A U.S. attack on Iran could have serious consequences for the entire world.  These recent events show that strange things are occurring and the world public is left wondering.  We shall see what the future holds…

The Russians are feeling their oats again.  Their bombers overflew Guam in August, 2007.

Russian Bomber Jets Resume Cold War Sorties

Recent diplomatic spats between the UK and Russia over the radioactively-dead Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko are now taking an interesting turn.  Putin is nothing if not non-subtle!

Really, does Putin hope to intimidate rookie Prime Minister Brown?

RAF Scrambles to intercept Russian Bombers
by Richard Beeston, Diplomatic Editor, Times Online
July 18, 2007

RAF fighter jets were scrambled to intercept two Russian strategic bombers
heading for British airspace yesterday, as the spirit of the Cold War
returned to the North Atlantic once again.

The incident, described as rare by the RAF, served as a telling metaphor for
the stand-off between London and Moscow over the murder of Alexander
Litvinenko…