War and Conflict Journal

Apparantly learning from the fall of long-ruling regimes in Tunisia and Egypt, Bahrain’s military took control of the capital Thursday, February 17, 2011, only hours after riot police firing birdshot, rubber bullets and teargas stormed an anti-government protest camp, killing at least five people and wounding more than 230. The Bahrain government, dominated by the minority Sunnis, moved swiftly to crush the nascent, largely Shiite-led protests against the government. The implications for the United States if Bahrain falls to the Shiites, or falls into violent chaos, are very serious. Bahrain serves as the “home port” for the United States Navy’s 5th Fleet, and is therefore a bulwark for the whole Sunni-dominated Arabian Peninsula against influence and power from Shiite-ruled Iran.

Russian sources associated with that nation’s assistance program with Iran’s nuclear program announced that by August 21, 2010, the fuel rods necessary to power the Bushehr nuclear reactor will be installed. Some analysts, such as John Bolton, former
U.S. ambassador to the U.N., believe that announcement creates a deadline by which Israel will attack the
Bushehr reactor. According to Bolton, an Israeli strike at the Iranian reactor must come before the nuclear
material is installed, otherwise, an attack could spread radioactive material throughout parts of the Middle East.

Also, in August, 2010, an article was published by The Atlantic magazine which presents facts and opinions on the possibility of an Israeli strike at Iran. The Atlantic article concludes that there is a 50 percent likelihood that Israel will strike the Iranian nuclear program by July, 2011.

See also:  http://www.historyguy.com/iranwar.htm

Korean tensions increase over South Korean ship attack by North Korea. The U.S. has 28,500 troops defending South Korea and a treaty obligation to aid the South in the event of war with North Korea.  This one could get very, very, bad!  North Korea’s military capabilities, especially with their active nuclear weapons arsenal, make the worries over Iran’s nukes look like a tempest at a tea party (no pun intended!)
http://www.historyguy.com/korean_border_conflicts.htm

A new article at Debka.com relates concerns that Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah may be preparing for a summer, 2010 war against Israel.  See the article at Debka.com’s site: http://www.debka.com/article/8745/

And the History Guy page at http://www.historyguy.com/iranwar.htm

The 2010 Kyrgyzstan Uprising  that appears to have overthrown the government of President Kurmanbek Saliyevich Bakiyev, comes amid rising political corruption and increasing poverty in this strategically-located former Soviet Republic.  Both the U.S and Russia maintain military based in Kyrgystan, and the Manas base used by American forces is a vital link in the supply chain supporting allied forces fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan.  This conflict, if it devolves into outright civil war, could bring Russia and America into the fray, and (worse case scenario) not necessarily on the same side.  This conflict bears watching…
http://historyguy.com/Kyrgyzstan_uprising_2010.htm

The world is slowly creeping toward the long-awaited and long-feared Iran War.  What is this ‘Iran War?”  At some point, Iran will be attacked, most likely by Israel, perhaps less likely by the United States or some coalition of Western powers.  But the ongoing concerns regarding Iran’s continued nuclear weapons development and the collapse of any reasonable diplomatic scenarios will lead Israel’s leadership with the belief that they have no choice but to strike the Islamic Republic of Iran before they can attack Israel with the nuclear weapons Iran is developing.

Two recent developments in particular shows that Israel is growing increasingly concerned.  First, the Israeli cabinet decided to fund a program to provide gas masks to all Israelis.  This is an obvious preparation for the possibility of missile attacks on Israel from Iran and/or Iranian allies Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria.

Second, on January 12, 2010, a leading Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated by a remote-controlled bomb in Tehran.  It is widely assumed that Israel is behind this killing in an apparent attempt to delay the Iranian nuclear program. 

See also: http://www.historyguy.com/iranwar.htm

Iran is far from a homogenous nation. The Islamic Republic has many ethnic and religious minority groups, and many of them chafe under Tehran’s rule. The Baluchis of southeastern Iran (like their ethnic kin across the border in Pakistani Baluchistan), want freedom from the central government, and are conducting a guerrilla/terrorist war to achieve their goals.

Iran’s ethnic and political unrest escalated on October 17, 2009, with a suicide bombing that killed at least five commanders of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The bombings also killed and wounded dozens of others left dead and injured in two the restive Baluchi region of near Iran’s southeastern frontier with Pakistan.

 The coordinated suicide bomb attacks mark an escalation in hostilities between Iran’s leadership and one of the nation’s many restive ethnic and religious minorities, in this case the Baluchis. Many terrorist attacks, mostly directed at the Iranian military and at the Revolutionary Guard have plagued Iran’s southeastern region, Sistan-Baluchistan, and in April the government put the elite but brutal Revolutionary Guards Corps in control of security in the Baluchi region in an effort to stop the escalating violence.

Iran, predictably, has accused its foreign enemies of supporting the insurgents in the past, and repeated that charge the day after the latest attack. By midday, news reports from Iran said that 31 people were killed and at least 28 injured.

See also:

http://www.historyguy.com/iran_baluchistan_rebellion_war.htm

http://www.historyguy.com/iranwar.htm

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/19/world/middleeast/19iran.html

The news out of the Pittsburgh G-20 Summit about the hitherto secret Iranian nuclear facility, coupled with Iranian missile tests near the Yom Kippur Jewish holiday raise the fears of a Western Powers/Israeli pre-emptive attack on Iran.

See http://www.historyguy.com/iranwar.htm for more information and links.

http://www.historyguy.com/iranwarsbookstore.htm

The Iran War Scenarios and Analysis page is now up and running.  This page will track current news, rumors, and analysis related to possible attacks on Iran by the United States and/or Israel.

http://www.historyguy.com/iranwar.htm

The Threat to Yemen: al-Qaida and the Perils of More War in Yemen

Yemen, that oddly-shaped nation on the southwestern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is one of the world’s poorest nations with a very uneducated, illiterate population.  It is also a hotbed of violence, tribalism, insurgencies and protests against the weak central government, along with a history of civil war and conflicts among Yemen’s very different regions.  Most men in the rural mountains and deserts own guns, know how to use them, consider kidnapping foreigners a fun and profitable way to pass the time, and they don’t like their alleged central government telling them what to do.

Oh, and to top off the list of unfortunate things about Yemen, it is the traditional homeland of the bin Laden family, (yes, THAT bin Laden family!), and, according to U.S. military and intelligence sources, it is turning into a possible new safe haven for al-Qaida fighters and leaders as they look for a more out-fo-the-way place to lead their Jihad from.  Yemen gained notice in the U.S. in 2000 with the al-Qaida attack on the American warship, the USS Cole. The U.S. did not publicly respond to that attack, but after the al-Qaida attacks of September 11, 2001, Yemen sided with the United States, and began dealing with its own militant problem with American aid.  The U.S. also conducted Predator drone strikes against Jihadist/al-Qaida targets in Yemen, most likely with the knowledge of the Yemeni government.

In 2004, the Sa’dah Insurgency began in the northwestern tip of Yemen, with the Islamic cleric Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, the leader of the Shiite  Zaidiyyah sect, launched an uprising against the Yemeni government. The Yemeni government also has problems in the south of the country, (which used to be the independent and avowedly Marxist/Socialist People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen).  Southern Yemen is making noises about seceding from the northern-dominated government, and some analysts and commentators (http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=35108&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=cf625c5341) claim that al-Qaida is getting involved in the southern protests and violence against the government.

So, why should the U.S. or any other Western nation care?  Look at the map of where Yemen lies.

Map of Yemen and Surrounding Region

Yemen is next to Saudi Arabia, and across the Bab al Mandeb (narrow straits separating Arabia from Africa) lies Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Somalia.  Most of the Somali pirate action is in the Gulf of Aden, which lies between southern Yemen and Somalia. A LOT of the world’s oil supply travels through those waters, and a seriously unstable Yemen on the scale of pre-2001 Afghanistan or the present-day Somalia is bad news for Saudi Arabia and Western interests.

The potential for a new Yemeni North/South War (past North/South conflicts erupted in 1972, 1979, and 1994) is serious and could spell trouble for the whole region.  This bears watching…

 Some websites and blogs of interest regarding Yemen:

Waq al-Waq

Jane Novak’s Yemen Articles

Wars of Yemen (1914-Present)