War and Conflict Journal

Syrian Uprising Timeline

(2011)

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Bashar al-Assad, President of Syria

Syria has been a dictatorship run by the Assad family since 1970. In that year, Hafez al-Assad, the Defense Minister, launched a coup that put him in power. Upon the death of Hafez al-Assad in 2000, his son, Bashar al-Assad, became President of Syria. Both Assads used terror and force to remain in power. The elder Assad suppressed a rebellion in 1982 in the city of Hama by unleashing the Syrian military on that city. At least 10,000 people, mostly innocent civilians, died in that uprising.In March, 2011, as part of the “Arab Spring” rebellions throughout the Middle East, protests began in Syria, and rose to the level of an anti-government uprising resulting in at least hundreds of deaths. for a timeline of the Syrian unrest and uprisings of 2011, go to http://www.historyguy.com/syrian_uprising_2011.htm

Mossad Hacked Syrian Official’s Computer Before Bombing Mysterious Nuclear Facility

 From Wired

November 3, 2009

Agents of Israel’s Mossad intelligence service hacked into the computer of a senior Syrian government official a year before Israel bombed a facility in Syria in 2007, according to Der Spiegel.

The intelligence agents planted a Trojan horse on the official’s computer in late 2006 while he was staying at a hotel in the Kensington district of London, the German newspaper reported Monday in an extensive account of the bombing attack.

The official reportedly left his computer in his hotel room when he went out, making it easy for agents to install the malware that siphoned files from the laptop. The files contained construction plans for the Al Kabir complex in eastern Syria — said to be an illicit nuclear facility — as well as letters and hundreds of detailed photos showing the complex at various stages of construction.

At the beginning — probably in 2002, although the material was undated — the construction site looked like a treehouse on stilts, complete with suspicious-looking pipes leading to a pumping station at the Euphrates. Later photos show concrete piers and roofs, which apparently had only one function: to modify the building so that it would look unsuspicious from above. In the end, the whole thing looked as if a shoebox had been placed over something in an attempt to conceal it. But photos from the interior revealed that what was going on at the site was in fact probably work on fissile material.

Early in the morning of September 6, 2007, Israeli fighter jets bombed the complex, located in the desert near the Euphrates river about 80 miles from the Iraq border. The attack, dubbed “Operation Orchard,” seemed to come out of nowhere and was marked by a resounding silence from both Israel and the United States afterward.

Israel claimed the incident never occurred. The United States claimed ignorance, but a State Department official suggested the target was nuclear equipment obtained by “secret suppliers.”

The Syrians were said to have been building the reactor with help from North Korea. The Israeli military’s intelligence unit, known as 8200, was reportedly tipped off to this by the U.S. National Security Agency, which intercepted conversations between Syrian officials at the reactor and North Koreans.

Israel’s concern about the facility really kicked into gear when it discovered that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad traveled to Syria in 2006, according to der Spiegel. The paper alleges that Ahmadinejad promised the Syrians more than $1 billion to hasten their progress.

In early 2007, Iran’s former deputy Minister of Defense defected to Turkey and told the CIA that Iran was funding a top-secret nuclear facility in Syria in conjunction with North Korea. Days before the Israeli attack on Al Kabir, a ship from North Korea arrived in Syria loaded with uranium materials, according to the Mossad.

Israel’s attack on the facility commenced late in the evening of September 5, when 10 Israeli jets departed from a base in Northern Israel around 11 p.m. and headed west over the Mediterranean. Seven of them turned east to Syria, flying low, and took out a radar station with their missiles. About 20 minutes later they released their bombs on Al Kabir.

Afterward, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert reportedly sent a message to Syria through Turkey saying no further hostilities were planned.

Israel, Olmert said, did not want to play up the incident and was still interested in making peace with Damascus. He added that if Assad chose not to draw attention to the Israeli strike, he would do the same.

In this way, a deafening silence about the mysterious event in the desert began. Nevertheless, the story did not end there, because there were many who chose to shed light on the incident — and others who were intent on exacting revenge.

Syrian President Bashar Assad maintains that the facility was a conventional military installation. But Der Spiegel reports that in June 2008, a team of experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency analyzed soil at Al Kabir taken after the bombing and found traces of uranium that were “of a type not included in Syria’s declared inventory of nuclear material.” Assad says the Israelis dropped the samples from the air when they bombed the facility in order to frame Syria.

The Israeli military launched an airstrike on Hamas-ruled Gaza early Wednesday, Nov. 5 after Israeli troops battled Hamas militants after Hamas fired mortars rounds into Israel. Six Palestinians were killed in the renewed fighting. This was the first battle since a June truce between Israel and Hamas brought relative peace to the region.

The Israeli army said the battles broke out late Tuesday, Nov. 4, after Israeli forces found a tunnel in central Gaza built by Hamas in order to abduct Israeli soldiers. A Israeli special army unit destroyed the tunnel. One Palestinian was killed in the gunbattles at the tunnel.

The timing may be coincidental, but it is interesting that this clash took place on the same night that the American Presidential campaign concluded with a victory by Democrat Barack Obama.  Many people worry about a possible Israeli-American strike at the Hamas/Hezbollah/Syria/Iran alliance in the waning days of Republican control of the White House.  Might this small battle lead to more clashes on other borders, with a possible Iranian and/or Syrian response?

This situation bears watching…

The American helicopter raid into Syria this week which targeted an al-Qaida leader based there, may presage a similar attack into Iran in the near future. Just as missile strikes and a very similar commando raid into Pakistan's border region in September may have foreshadowed this raid into Syria's border area, the next logical target in the ongoing attempt to curtail cross-border aid and supply to al-Qaida and other insurgents into Iraq may be Iran.

Many analysts and pundits have mulled over the possibility of an "October Surprise" in the middle east which could affect the American Presidential race.  The theory being that an international crisis or event could highlight the foreign policy experience of John McCain over his opponent, Barack Obama.  Also, if a major military event took place, the American public may automatically back the party in power (the Republican), and this close to Election Day, that may translate into more votes for McCain.

This theory is faulty on several fronts.  First, the economy will continue to be Issue #1, and little short of a major terror attack on the U.S. homeland will change that.  Second, at this point in the war and in the election campaign, the American public would likely turn on the Bush Administration and, by extension, John McCain if it perceived an attempt to manipulate the election with the lives of American service members.

And then there is the real danger.  George W. Bush and Dick Cheney have been clear that they view the development of Iranian nuclear weapons to be a grave and mortal danger the the United States and its allies, particularly Israel.  Rather than start something with Iran before the election, in what the history books and public opinion would surely condemn as a blatant and heavy-handed attempt to influence the election, it is far more likely that the long-feared "Iran War" will begin after Barack Obama wins the election, which, as of this writing, seems very likely to occur.

Were McCain to take office, Bush and Cheney would likely feel assured that their policies on Iran and the nuclear issue would be carried on by McCain.  The same is not true of a likely Obama Administration.  Thus, in order to save America, Israel, and much of Europe from a nuclear-armed Iran, it is highly likely that at some point in the 77 day transition period between Election Day and Inauguration Day, an incident will occur, or a commando raid similar to those carried out on Pakistan and Syria will take place on Iranian soil.  Or, Israel may elect to attack Iran itself, with the full assurance of American support and involvement.

If Obama wins, watch for signs of military buildup and preparation.  This Iran War scenario is all the more likely after the raids on Pakistan and Syria.  After all, what do President Bush and Vice-President Cheney have to worry about if the American public disapproves of such a war?  Elect them out of office?  President Obama may be faced with a much more dangerous, chaotic, and violent world than now exists.

Recent events in the Middle East and elsewhere raise the question, not of if, but when, a U.S.-led war on Iran will begin.

Some points to ponder:

         1.  Turkey (an Iran neighbor) is threatening to attack Kurdish rebel (PKK) bases in northern Iraq (also an Iran neighbor).

         2.  Iran has recently been shelling Kurdish rebel (PEJAK) bases in northern Iraq.

         3.  Recent war fears related to the Turkey/Kurd conflict pushed oil prices past the $90 a barrel mark.

         4.  Evidence mounts that Vice-President Dick Cheney is urging President Bush to launch a war on Iran prior to Jan. 20, 2008, when they both must leave office to make way for the new president.  Most likely such an attack on Iran will take place after the election, so as to not affect the Republican nominee’s chances of winning.  See Rolling Stone Magazine’s recent article. Znet,  Atlantic Free Press

         5.  Some conspiracy theorists contend that the recent revelation of an unauthorized  nuclear-armed B-52 flight across the United States was not truly some kind of incredible error or once-in-a-lifetime chain of events leading to a huge mistake, but a part of some conspiracy or cover-up.  One theory is that the nuclear-tipped cruise missiles were intended for the Middle East and for targets in Iran, and that the flight to Louisiana was some sort of quiet "rebellion" in the ranks of the Air Force.  See

          6.  Israel’s recent air strike on Syria looks more and more like an Osirak-style raid to stop an Arab nation from acquiring nuclear weapons.  The New York Times and ABC News report that the target in Syria was a nuclear facility being built with North Korean aid.

          7.  Iran and Russia are getting cozy, and Russia is Iran’s main supplier of weapons.  The Bush administration may be tempted to attack Iran soon, before the Moscow-Tehran relationship turns into a real alliance. 

The world is at a vital turning point.  A U.S. attack on Iran could have serious consequences for the entire world.  These recent events show that strange things are occurring and the world public is left wondering.  We shall see what the future holds…

A report by Newsweek claims that Vice-President Cheney considered asking Israel to attack Iran, in hopes of provoking an Iranian response which could then be used as a pretext for a U.S. attack on Iran.

This is not an unlikely scenario for the anticipated new Middle Eastern War to begin.  Coming on the heels of the Israeli airstrike on a Syrian target (perhaps a nuclear target in Syria also involving North Korea), this report creates more questions about how involved America was in the strike on Syria.

Cheney mulled Israeli strike on Iran – Newsweek

Recent developments involving Syria, Iran, and North Korea continue to instill deep worries of a soon-to-begin Middle Eastern War with global implications and connections.

According to Jane’s Defense Weekly, an explosion in northern Syria in July, 2007, killed at least 15 Syrian soldiers, as well as many Iranian engineers.  The explosion was supposedly caused by an accident involving a chemical warhead as it was loaded onto a Scud missile.  North Korea supplies Scud missiles and warheads to Syria, and Iran is a long-time ally of Syria.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that Israel did indeed launch a heretofore secret air strike on Syrian territory on September 6, 2007.  He did not specify what the target was or why it was so important to attack and risk war.  He also revealed a moment of unity between Israel’s rival political parties; Prime Minister Olmert consulted with opposition leader Netanyahu prior to the attack.  Netanyahu said that he agreed with the military mission over Syria.

Meanwhile, reports from Syria indicate a movement within the ruling circles of the Baathist government in Damascus, that Syria must perform some sort of military response to what is now an overt attack by Israel. 

Both sides have spoken of being prepared for war this summer, along with publicly alleged desire for peace.  Syria has been upgrading its military, particularly its missile forces, with large purchases from Russia.  Israel has spent the summer with increased training for its ground forces.  The Israeli army performed poorly in its combat with Hezbollah in the 2006 Second Lebanon War. 

The War and Conflict Journal believes that the evidence of mutual military buildups, internal politics in both countries, and a perceived sense that "something" must be done about each other. Both Israel and Syria see each other as a major threat, and many leaders in each nation feel that a war may serve as a way to either reduce a perceived threat, or prove to itself and its allies that it can stand up to the ancient enemy.

A new Middle Eastern, Arab-Israeli War is about to begin, and it will be the bloodiest, most expensive war in Israel’s history.  This time, Syria has missiles that can drop large conventional (and chemical) warheads on Israeli cities.  Once war begins, Israel will have to seize Syrian territory, up to and including the capital of Damascus, in order to force the missile attacks to stop.  Such a war could easily tempt Hezbollah to launch its missiles and rockets at Israel again, as they did in 2006.  Lebanon would again become a battleground.  And Iran, ally and patron to both Syria and Hezbollah, may also enter the fray, which in turn could cause the United States and other Western allies to join the war as an opportunity to abort Iran’s growing nuclear abilities.

A 2007 October War could easily escalate into a regional nightmare.  All sides must tread carefully.

Syrian official: Damascus eager to respond to Israel flyover–YNet News, Sept. 20, 2007

Netanyahu confirms secret attack on Syria–The Guardian, Sept. 21, 2007