War and Conflict Journal

Yemen has long been connected to the family of Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaida terrorist organization. The bin Laden family originated in Yemen prior to settling in Saudi Arabia and becoming wealthy in the construction business. Like Afghanistan and Somalia, other favorite bases for al-Qaida, Yemen status as a nation with a fairly weak central government and the frequent conflicts inside Yemen’s borders makes the poor Arabian nation a good location for al-Qaida to hide, recruit, and plan further attacks on the West and on others. In October of 2000, al-Qaida operatives rammed a small boat into the side of an American warship, the USS Cole, blasting a hole in the side of the ship and killing 17 American sailors. A year later, in October, 2002, al-Qaida attacked a French oil tanker, killing one, and causing the spillage of 100,000 gallons of oil. In September, 2008, al-Qaida attacked the U.S. Embassy in Sana’a in a car bomb attack followed by a gun battle with Embassy guards. The Yemeni government has worked with the United States since the September 11, 2001 attacks on the U.S. in combating the al-Qaida presence in Yemen. In 2002, an American Predator drone controlled by the Central Intelligence Agency destroyed a vehicle in Yemen containing several al-Qaida operatives. Airstrikes against al-Qaida targets in Yemen in 2009, prior to the Christmas Day airliner attack, are believed to have been conducted with significant American aid, though officially the attacks were conducted by the Yemeni government.

In early January, 2010, General David Petraeus,..READ THE REST OF THE ARTICLE AT: http://www.historyguy.com/yemen_history_wars_politics.htm

George Stanley McChrystal (b. August, 14, 1954)
General Stanley A. McChrystal is an American army general who was named the commander of allied forces in Afghanistan, and assumed command of those forces in May of 2009.
General McChrystal is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. McChyrstal is a Green Beret and an Army Ranger, as well as a veteran commander in Special Operations, also known as “Black Ops.”
McChrystal served in Afghanistan as chief of staff of the military operations in 2001 and 2002. He also commanded the 75th Ranger Regiment and served tours in Saudi Arabia during the Persian Gulf War in 1991.
Forces under General McChrystal’s command found and captured Saddam Hussein and with tracking and killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al-Qaida in Mesopotamia (al-Qaida in Iraq).
General McChrystal replaced General David McKiernan…

http://www.historyguy.com/biofiles/mcchrystal_stanley_general.htm

American Special Forces attacked vehicles in Somalia carrying members of al-Qaida’s Somalia and Kenya branch on September 14, 2009. The dead included Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, wanted for the 2002 car bombing of a beach resort in Kenya and an attempt to shoot down an Israeli airliner. He was a leader of the local al-Qaida branch. Nabhan was a 30-year old Kenyan who is suspected of being behind the 2002 attacks in Kenya ttargeting Israelis. Ten Kenyans and three Israelis died in the bombing of an Israeli-owned hotel in Mombasa. Ground-to-air missiles were fired at the Israeli airliner as it took off from the city’s airport but missed the jet. Nabhan is believed to be one of those who fired a missile. He later escaped in Somalia, which is a largly lawless nation with a strong al-Qaida presence.

Previous American attacks on al-Qaida in Somalia involved missile attacks which were relatively imprecise, and created casualties among Somali civilians. This attack was carried out by helicopters which fired on the vehicles. Witnesses reported that after the helicopter attack concluded, American troops rappelled to the ground, collected the dead and wounded, and flew off. One Somali official said that the attack produced five dead.

The last confirmed American troop presence in Somalia was in 1993, during the Battle of Mogadishu. When Ethiopia invaded Somali in 2005 and 2006, some reports indicated that small numbers of U.S. troops accompanied the Ethiopians, searching for al-Qaida leaders.

See http://www.historyguy.com/special_forces_attack_al-qaida_somalia.htm

On April 22, 2009, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton referred to the military advance of the Pakistani Taliban out of the Swat Valley that has been ceded to them by the weak Pakistani government by stating that this situation in Pakistan formed an “existential threat” to Pakistan and a “mortal threat” to the world, and by extension, to the United States.  She also called on Pakistanis to resist their government’s policy of surrendering national territory to the Islamic extremists.

Tough words, but it remains to be seen if Clinton and the Obama Administration of which she is a part, really have the gumption to truly address this issue.  The Pakistani civilian government seems incapable or unwilling to confront the Taliban in the border areas.  The Taliban (and their al-Qaida allies), rightly see this as weakness on Islamabad’s part, and are pressing their advantage.  It is well known that the Pakistani military and secret services still aid the Taliban in its fight against Allied forces in Afghanistan (see http://warandconflictjournal.com/2008/06/pakistan-aids-taliban-still/).  The military is known to still consider India as its number one foe, and it is reported that important leaders of the military and intelligence services sympathize to some point with the Islamicists in the border regions.   

Clinton is right that the Taliban advances pose a grave threat to Pakistan.  If, by some means, the Taliban or some other radical Islamic group seizes control, or at least weakens the central government enough that the nation falls into true chaos or collapse, then the U.S., Britain, the other NATO allies, and, of course, India, all have to make an important decision.  Pakistan is too large to be allowed to fall into “Failed State” status.  Its nuclear arsenal is far too deadly to fall to ilk like the Taliban or al-Qaida.  It is hard to imagine India standing by as its old, but dangerous enemy becomes perhaps more dangerous through the unpredictability of chaos. 

So, the civilized world must decide what is to be done.  Stop the Taliban now, or wait and deal with the detritus of failed policies after it is far too late.  Pakistan is the “Sick Man of South Asia,” and like the old Ottoman Empire, it is far too large and dangerous to let it fall apart without major consequences for the entire region and the world.

President Obama’s Afghanistan Strategy (2009)
 On March 27, 2009, President Obama, flanked by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, announced his new strategy toward the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Below are the video of the President’s announcement and the text of President Obama’s announcement.  To see this page, go to:  http://www.historyguy.com/obama_afghanistan_strategy_2009.htm

The Iraq War began on March 19, 2003 with the U.S.-British invasion of Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship.  As the 6th anniversary of that invasion passes, U.S. war deaths reach 4,260.  British deaths are holding at 179 deaths.

For more information: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/03/22/america/Iraq-US-Deaths.php

As of Saturday, March 21, 2009, at least 4,260 members of the U.S. military had died in the Iraq war since it began in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count.

The figure includes eight military civilians killed in action. At least 3,425 military personnel died as a result of hostile action, according to the military’s numbers.

The AP count is one fewer than the Defense Department’s tally, last updated Friday at 10 a.m. EDT.

The British military has reported 179 deaths; Italy, 33; Ukraine, 18; Poland, 21; Bulgaria, 13; Spain, 11; Denmark, seven; El Salvador, five; Slovakia, four; Latvia and Georgia, three each; Estonia, Netherlands, Thailand and Romania, two each; and Australia, Hungary, Kazakhstan and South Korea, one death each.

Source: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/03/22/america/Iraq-US-Deaths.php

The American helicopter raid into Syria this week which targeted an al-Qaida leader based there, may presage a similar attack into Iran in the near future. Just as missile strikes and a very similar commando raid into Pakistan's border region in September may have foreshadowed this raid into Syria's border area, the next logical target in the ongoing attempt to curtail cross-border aid and supply to al-Qaida and other insurgents into Iraq may be Iran.

Many analysts and pundits have mulled over the possibility of an "October Surprise" in the middle east which could affect the American Presidential race.  The theory being that an international crisis or event could highlight the foreign policy experience of John McCain over his opponent, Barack Obama.  Also, if a major military event took place, the American public may automatically back the party in power (the Republican), and this close to Election Day, that may translate into more votes for McCain.

This theory is faulty on several fronts.  First, the economy will continue to be Issue #1, and little short of a major terror attack on the U.S. homeland will change that.  Second, at this point in the war and in the election campaign, the American public would likely turn on the Bush Administration and, by extension, John McCain if it perceived an attempt to manipulate the election with the lives of American service members.

And then there is the real danger.  George W. Bush and Dick Cheney have been clear that they view the development of Iranian nuclear weapons to be a grave and mortal danger the the United States and its allies, particularly Israel.  Rather than start something with Iran before the election, in what the history books and public opinion would surely condemn as a blatant and heavy-handed attempt to influence the election, it is far more likely that the long-feared "Iran War" will begin after Barack Obama wins the election, which, as of this writing, seems very likely to occur.

Were McCain to take office, Bush and Cheney would likely feel assured that their policies on Iran and the nuclear issue would be carried on by McCain.  The same is not true of a likely Obama Administration.  Thus, in order to save America, Israel, and much of Europe from a nuclear-armed Iran, it is highly likely that at some point in the 77 day transition period between Election Day and Inauguration Day, an incident will occur, or a commando raid similar to those carried out on Pakistan and Syria will take place on Iranian soil.  Or, Israel may elect to attack Iran itself, with the full assurance of American support and involvement.

If Obama wins, watch for signs of military buildup and preparation.  This Iran War scenario is all the more likely after the raids on Pakistan and Syria.  After all, what do President Bush and Vice-President Cheney have to worry about if the American public disapproves of such a war?  Elect them out of office?  President Obama may be faced with a much more dangerous, chaotic, and violent world than now exists.

The Rand Corporation issued a report stating the obvious and the well-known to anyone paying attention to Afghan affairs:  That elements inside the Pakistani security forces have continued to aid the Taliban.  This despite the alleged alliance between Pakistan and the United States since the Allies invaded Afghanistan to liberate that nation from the Islamic Fundamentalist Taliban and its al-Qaida mercenaries.

The Taliban originally took power in Afghanistan with both covert and overt aid from the Pakistani military and the Pakistani intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) in the 1990s.(see http://www.historyguy.com/afghan_civil_war.html for detailed information on the Taliban’s rise to power).

The United States has been making noise lately about the Pakistani government’s inability or, as this report leads one to believe, lack of desire, to rein in Taliban forces on Pakistani soil.  It is highly likely that if the current situation continues, with Taliban forces using Pakistani territory with impunity, that the U.S. will attack across the border.  Just as in the Vietnam War, when Communist forces used neighboring Cambodia and Laos for sanctuary, the U.S. may see the need to correct the problem itself. 

Whereas the 1970 invasion of Cambodia sparked massive and deadly anti-war protests in the U.S., a repeat of those types of mass demonstrations would be unlikely in America today. Without a military draft to drive millions of youths to the movement, today’s anti-war organizations will not do anything substantial.  In fact, the anti-war movement, if it can justifiably be called a true movement, cares more about the war in Iraq anyway.  Afghanistan is increasingly becoming a truly "Forgotten War," which is a true tragedy, since in many ways, the outcome of this conflict is of more importance than what happens in Iraq.

Signs point to a possible U.S./NATO/Israeli war against Iran/Syria/Hezbollah in the near future.

Tensions between Israel and Syria escalated in early April as Israel conducts nation-wide civil defense drills simulating a domestic response to a potential Hezbollah/Syrian/Iranian attack with biological and chemical weapons. This drill comes amid continued Hezbollah threats to avenge the recent assassination of one of its leaders. Supposedly in response to Israel’s drill, Syria has put its military on alert.

In addition, Israel recently conducted a joint naval exercise with NATO forces in the Mediterranean Sea. France, Britain, Germany and other NATO nations, including the U.S. have been warning of Iran’s nuclear ambitions this past year.

It is widely assumed in the U.S. and throughout the world, that the Bush/Cheney Administration, unsure of John McCain’s chances of beating the Democrats for the White House, and unwilling to leave a potentially nuclear Iran to be dealt with by an Obama or Clinton administration, will do whatever it takes to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. As of April, 2008, only ten months remain for President Bush to act. Also, a preemptive war against Iran, if it goes well (a decidedly big IF), will likely boost Senator McCain’s chances against the presumed Clinton and/or Obama Democratic ticket in November.

The recent removal of Admiral Fallon, a critic of a potential Iran War, also clears the way within the military leadership for a fully-supported effort to exercise the will of the Commander-in-Chief.

Time will tell if this war scenario plays out, but the odds are heavily stacked in favor of a wider regional war pitting the Western allies (plus Israel) against Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah.

Links and Sources:

Syria Plans Emergency Drill amid Fears of War with Israel–Voice of America, April 9, 2008

Israeli intel projects a one-month war with Syria–World Tribune.com, April 9, 2008

US Military Strike set on Iran? by W. Joseph Stroupe of the International Analyst Network, April 7, 2008

Analysis:  Ethiopia’s war in Somalia continues to resemble a dusty version of Vietnam, or an African version of Iraq.  Unlike the U.S. though, Ethiopia does not have the financial or military resources to "Surge" in Somalia as the U.S. has done (with apparent success) in Iraq.  How is Ethiopia paying for this war, anyway?

Islamic Insurgents Briefly Capture Somali Military Airfield

By VOA
News

25 January 2008

Reports from Somalia say Islamic insurgents
briefly captured the nation’s largest military airfield Friday, killing
two soldiers and escaping with stolen weapons.

Somali army officials and witnesses say militants attacked the
airport at Baledogle, about 100 kilometers south of the capital,
Mogadishu.  They say the militants relinquished control after seizing
weapons that were stored there.

Fighters with the al-Shabaab Islamic rebel group took credit for the attack on local radio.

Islamist insurgents have been battling the Somali government and
allied Ethiopian troops for the past year.  The fighting has killed
thousands and prompted an estimated 600,000 more to flee Mogadishu.

On Wednesday, militants fired mortar rounds near the presidential
palace about the same time that African Union Peace and Security
Commissioner Sa’id Djinnit met with Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein.

Djinnit presented Somali leaders with a four-point AU peace plan
aimed at stopping the fighting.  The plan includes a call for greater
international involvement in peacekeeping operations.

Djinnit said the 1,800 AU peacekeepers in Mogadishu are doing a
"wonderful job."  But he accused the international community of
abandoning Somalia.  Djinnit urged the U.N. Security Council to
re-establish a peacekeeping mission.

Somalia has been without an effective central government since 1991,
when warlords overthrew dictator Mohamad Siad Barre.  A number of
factions have been fighting each other for control while a transitional
government, set up ahead of scheduled elections, tries to assert its
authority