War and Conflict Journal

Eritrea and Djibouti engaged in a military clash along their mutual border over the course of three days, June 10- 13, 2008, resulting in the deaths of nine Djibouti soldiers, and the wounding of around 60 others. Some reports indicate that the French Foreign Legion in Djibouti provided logistical and medical aid to the Djibouti forces during the battles.

Previously, in mid-April, 2008, Djibouti accused Eritrea of sending troops across the border and digging trenches and defensive emplacements inside Djibouti.

Tensions between these Horn of Africa neighbors have been escalating, in large part due to the fact that Djibouti is allied to Ethiopia, France, and the United States.  Ethiopia and Eritrea have fought two bloody wars, and maintain large military forces on their mutual border as they continue to view each other as foes.  Also, Eritrea has been accused of aiding Islamist forces in Somalia, where they have fought against intervening Ethiopian and American forces since late 2006.

The 13th Demi-Brigade of the French Foreign Legion, with 2,850 troops, shares a military base, called Camp Lemonier, with the Combined Joint Task Force Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) of the United States Central Command, since 2002.

Using their base at Camp Lemonier, American forces launched a Predator drone which flew over neighboring Yemen in 2002 which fired a Hellfire missile, killing al-Qaida operatives Abu Ali al-Harithi and Ahmed Hijazi, along with four other suspected terrorists. al-Harithi was believed to be a leader in the attack on the USS Cole in Yemeni waters in October of 2000. American forces based in Djibouti at Camp Lemonier also launched missions against Islamist forces in Somalia during the Ethiopian intervention which began in December of 2006.

Links:

http://www.eritreadaily.net/News0108/article0806141.htm

http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL12617339

http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnL11187409.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Ras_Doumeira_border_crisis

http://www.historyguy.com/eritrea-djibouti_2008_war.html

Analysis:  Ethiopia’s war in Somalia continues to resemble a dusty version of Vietnam, or an African version of Iraq.  Unlike the U.S. though, Ethiopia does not have the financial or military resources to "Surge" in Somalia as the U.S. has done (with apparent success) in Iraq.  How is Ethiopia paying for this war, anyway?

Islamic Insurgents Briefly Capture Somali Military Airfield

By VOA
News

25 January 2008

Reports from Somalia say Islamic insurgents
briefly captured the nation’s largest military airfield Friday, killing
two soldiers and escaping with stolen weapons.

Somali army officials and witnesses say militants attacked the
airport at Baledogle, about 100 kilometers south of the capital,
Mogadishu.  They say the militants relinquished control after seizing
weapons that were stored there.

Fighters with the al-Shabaab Islamic rebel group took credit for the attack on local radio.

Islamist insurgents have been battling the Somali government and
allied Ethiopian troops for the past year.  The fighting has killed
thousands and prompted an estimated 600,000 more to flee Mogadishu.

On Wednesday, militants fired mortar rounds near the presidential
palace about the same time that African Union Peace and Security
Commissioner Sa’id Djinnit met with Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein.

Djinnit presented Somali leaders with a four-point AU peace plan
aimed at stopping the fighting.  The plan includes a call for greater
international involvement in peacekeeping operations.

Djinnit said the 1,800 AU peacekeepers in Mogadishu are doing a
"wonderful job."  But he accused the international community of
abandoning Somalia.  Djinnit urged the U.N. Security Council to
re-establish a peacekeeping mission.

Somalia has been without an effective central government since 1991,
when warlords overthrew dictator Mohamad Siad Barre.  A number of
factions have been fighting each other for control while a transitional
government, set up ahead of scheduled elections, tries to assert its
authority

The latest news article on this border incident has Ethiopia confirming that a shootout of some sort did occur on the Eritrea-Ethiopia border.

Read the article at:

Dec. 28, 2007

As Ethiopia marks the first anniversary of her
intervention and immersion in Somalia’s ongoing civil war, reports
indicate that fighting has broken out on the Eritrea-Ethiopia
border.

According to the Voice
of America:

"Eritrea has accused Ethiopia of
   attacking its security forces along the two countries’ disputed
   border.
   
   

In a statement posted on its Web site late
   Wednesday, the Asmara government said Ethiopian troops made a
   failed, small-scale attack late Tuesday on Eritrean forces in the
   South Tsorona area."

At this point, Ethiopia is denying launching any
type of attack. It is believed that Eritrea is waging a proxy war
against Ethiopia in Somalia; supplying weapons and other material to
the Islamist resistance fighting against the Somali government and
its Ethiopian allies.

The two Horn of Africa neighbors waged a bloody
border war from 1998-2000, in which over 70,000 died. The border
dispute that sparked that war remains unresolved. Eritrea gained its
independence from Ethiopia after a thirty-year long war from 1961 to
1991.

According to the International
Crisis Group‘s (ICG) Africa
Briefing of November 5, 2007:

"The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will
   resume their war in the next several weeks is very real. A
   military build-up along the common border over the past few months
   has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military
   solution if hostilities restart; more likely is a protracted
   conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia
   and a dramatic humanitarian crisis."

That report mentions a resumption of war "in the
next few weeks is very real." Reports from UN troops on the ground in
the Eritrea-Ethiopia border region of gunfire and combat on December,
26, 2007, is, literally "a few weeks" after the ICG report’s
warning.

Also, the December 13, 2007 edition of The
Economist, in an article on the ongoing border discussions and
disagreements, said:

"This time Mr Zenawi’s [Ethiopia's
   leader] belligerence comes as the Eritrea-Ethiopia Border
   Commission wound up business this month, with no agreed
   demarcation. In 2002 it awarded the disputed village of Badme to
   Eritrea. Ethiopia rejected the verdict, and has since used
   diplomatic verbiage to obfuscate and stall."

This statement, by a very respected publication,
along with the ICG’s prediction of warfare for mid-to-late December,
gives rise to increased fears that the reports of fighting on the
border may be part of a larger campaign to redraw the border and
bring things to a head.

Other links and news reports on the new fighting
between Eritrea and Ethiopia:

Fear
of War Increasing in Horn of
Africa–Associated Press, Dec. 26,
2007

Exchange
of gunfire on Eritrea-Ethiopia border:
UN–AFP, Dec. 27, 2007

Ethiopia
denies Eritrea’s fresh accusation on border
attack-Sudan Tribune, December 28 2007

The BBC has a very good article on the implications of the
Ethiopian intervention in Somalia, which is now at the one-year
mark.

See this article at:  Ethiopia
in Somalia: One year on

One very interesting point is that the Ethiopian government admits
that it was warned by the United States Central Commander, General
John Abizaid, that an invasion of Somalia would be a mistake. Abizaid
warned the Ethiopians that Somalia would become "Ethiopia’s
Iraq."

And, like America’s predicament in Iraq, with a possible face-down
with Iran, and other fronts in the War on Terror, Ethiopia also has
multiple fronts, with the strengthening of the long-running Ogaden
insurgency, and a potential new war with Eritrea to the north.

Analysis: Look for Eritrea to make a move to escalate either their
aid to the Somalis and Ogaden rebels, and/or to put pressure on
Ethiopia along the border. Reports from the United Nations indicate a
new border conflict is brewing.