War and Conflict Journal

Just as international analysts express growing concerns over the possibility of a renewal of all-out war involving Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, and possibly Syria, new clashes are reported along the tense Israel-Lebanon border in early August,  2010.  According to early reports, at least four were killed in mutual artillery fire across the border.

Israel said an Israeli battalion commander was killed, and Lebanon claimed at least two of its soldiers and a journalist were killed in shelling. 

According to the New York Times:

The skirmish began when Israeli soldiers were conducting activities along the border area. There are conflicting reports about whether Israelis were installing a surveillance camera on a fence or clearing a tree.

Lebanese officials said Israelis had crossed the border into Lebanon, but Israeli military officials denied the claim, saying they were in Israeli territory.

Lebanese soldiers said they fired warning shots at the Israelis, prompting a brief but heavy exchange of fire.

Israeli military officials said they returned fire with light arms and artillery and then dispatched helicopters several minutes later to attack a Lebanese command center, damaging several armored combat vehicles.

This marks the most serious combat along the border since the month-long war between Lebanon/Hezbollah and Israel in the summer of 2006.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-israel-lebanon-20100804,0,6928535.story

http://dover.idf.il/IDF/English/News/today/10/08/0302.htm

A new article at Debka.com relates concerns that Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah may be preparing for a summer, 2010 war against Israel.  See the article at Debka.com’s site: http://www.debka.com/article/8745/

And the History Guy page at http://www.historyguy.com/iranwar.htm

Signs point to a possible U.S./NATO/Israeli war against Iran/Syria/Hezbollah in the near future.

Tensions between Israel and Syria escalated in early April as Israel conducts nation-wide civil defense drills simulating a domestic response to a potential Hezbollah/Syrian/Iranian attack with biological and chemical weapons. This drill comes amid continued Hezbollah threats to avenge the recent assassination of one of its leaders. Supposedly in response to Israel’s drill, Syria has put its military on alert.

In addition, Israel recently conducted a joint naval exercise with NATO forces in the Mediterranean Sea. France, Britain, Germany and other NATO nations, including the U.S. have been warning of Iran’s nuclear ambitions this past year.

It is widely assumed in the U.S. and throughout the world, that the Bush/Cheney Administration, unsure of John McCain’s chances of beating the Democrats for the White House, and unwilling to leave a potentially nuclear Iran to be dealt with by an Obama or Clinton administration, will do whatever it takes to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. As of April, 2008, only ten months remain for President Bush to act. Also, a preemptive war against Iran, if it goes well (a decidedly big IF), will likely boost Senator McCain’s chances against the presumed Clinton and/or Obama Democratic ticket in November.

The recent removal of Admiral Fallon, a critic of a potential Iran War, also clears the way within the military leadership for a fully-supported effort to exercise the will of the Commander-in-Chief.

Time will tell if this war scenario plays out, but the odds are heavily stacked in favor of a wider regional war pitting the Western allies (plus Israel) against Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah.

Links and Sources:

Syria Plans Emergency Drill amid Fears of War with Israel–Voice of America, April 9, 2008

Israeli intel projects a one-month war with Syria–World Tribune.com, April 9, 2008

US Military Strike set on Iran? by W. Joseph Stroupe of the International Analyst Network, April 7, 2008