War and Conflict Journal

Reports are coming to light about Chinese military incursions into Indian-controlled portions of Jammu-Kashmir along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in south-eastern Ladakh region in September-October 2010.  Earlier, in 2009, Chinese military aircraft flew over the disputed region.

Sino-Indian War of 1962 at http://www.historyguy.com/warfiles/sino-indian_war_warfile.htm

Read more: Chinese troops intrude into Ladakh, halt govt project – The Times of India http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Chinese-troops-intrude-into-Ladakh-halt-govt-project/articleshow/7250270.cms#ixzz1AfFu2pON

http://www.historyguy.com/india_maoist_insurgent_war.htm

At least 22 troops were killed when armed Maoists attacked a camp of the paramilitary forces in India’s West Bengal state on Feb. 15, 2010.

Nearly 50 rebels on motorcycles encircled the camp of the Eastern Frontier Rifles (ERF) at Silda village on Monday and started firing on it.

More fighters joined the assault on foot, firing from automatic weapons.

More than 6,000 people have died during the rebels’ 20-year fight for communist rule in many Indian states.

The Indian government recently began a major offensive against the rebels in several states.

Indian Prime minister Manmohan Singh has described the Maoist insurgency as India’s “greatest internal security challenge”.

The Maoist rebels now have a presence in 223 of India’s 600 or so districts.

China and India: Enemies Again?

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal points out an uncomfortable truth: Namely that the world’s two most populous nations, China and India, still really do not like nor trust each other very much.  And, to add some spice to this long-standing rivalry, one needs to only remember that these two Asian giants share a very long border, but that they are both nuclear powers. 

As stated in the WSJ:

On June 8, New Delhi announced it would deploy two additional army divisions and two air force squadrons near its border with China. Beijing responded furiously to the Indian announcement, hardening its claim to some 90,000 square kilometers of Indian territory that China disputes.

China and India fought a nasty border war back in 1962, over disputed land along the border, and they never really settled the issue satisfactorily.  The WSJ points out that in recent years, China has worked hard to put in many roads and other infrastructure that could facilitate troop and weapon movement in the event of a new conflict.  India has not done similar work on its side of the border.

In recent years however China has been raising the temperature at the border. Chinese claims to Arunachal Pradesh and frequent Chinese “incursions” into the nearby Indian state of Sikkim have begun to multiply in line with Beijing’s rising economic and political influence. Moreover, unlike India, China has methodically developed its infrastructure along the disputed border, littering the barren terrain with highways and railways capable of moving large numbers of goods and troops.

For its part, New Delhi has become both increasingly aware of its disadvantage and exceedingly suspicious of China’s intentions. India’s June 8 announcement that it will deploy two additional army mountain divisions to the northeastern state of Assam will bring India’s troop levels in the region to more than 100,000. The Indian Air Force, meanwhile, announced it will station two squadrons of advanced Sukhoi-30 MKI aircraft in Tezpur, also in Assam. They will be complemented by three Airborne Warning and Control Systems and the addition or upgrade of airstrips and advanced landing stations.

The article also points out that China has invested in projects in nations throughout South Asia, including in nations with ongoing or recent issues with India, such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Bangladesh.

China has been spending a lot of financial and political capital to extend its influence around Asia, and also into Africa and Latin America.  China’s military is quickly improving and modernizing by leaps and bounds.  India is bordered by nations who do not like India, and China is making friends with India’s other enemies, such as Myanmar/Burma.  India had best watch out, and the American government needs to work hard to keep China from flexing its muscles at the expense of democratic India.

 See also:

http://www.historyguy.com/india-bangladesh_2001.htm

http://www.historyguy.com/kargil_war.html

http://www.historyguy.com/indo_pakistani-wars.html

http://www.historyguy.com/kashmir_links.html

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124578881101543463.html

On April 22, 2009, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton referred to the military advance of the Pakistani Taliban out of the Swat Valley that has been ceded to them by the weak Pakistani government by stating that this situation in Pakistan formed an “existential threat” to Pakistan and a “mortal threat” to the world, and by extension, to the United States.  She also called on Pakistanis to resist their government’s policy of surrendering national territory to the Islamic extremists.

Tough words, but it remains to be seen if Clinton and the Obama Administration of which she is a part, really have the gumption to truly address this issue.  The Pakistani civilian government seems incapable or unwilling to confront the Taliban in the border areas.  The Taliban (and their al-Qaida allies), rightly see this as weakness on Islamabad’s part, and are pressing their advantage.  It is well known that the Pakistani military and secret services still aid the Taliban in its fight against Allied forces in Afghanistan (see http://warandconflictjournal.com/2008/06/pakistan-aids-taliban-still/).  The military is known to still consider India as its number one foe, and it is reported that important leaders of the military and intelligence services sympathize to some point with the Islamicists in the border regions.   

Clinton is right that the Taliban advances pose a grave threat to Pakistan.  If, by some means, the Taliban or some other radical Islamic group seizes control, or at least weakens the central government enough that the nation falls into true chaos or collapse, then the U.S., Britain, the other NATO allies, and, of course, India, all have to make an important decision.  Pakistan is too large to be allowed to fall into “Failed State” status.  Its nuclear arsenal is far too deadly to fall to ilk like the Taliban or al-Qaida.  It is hard to imagine India standing by as its old, but dangerous enemy becomes perhaps more dangerous through the unpredictability of chaos. 

So, the civilized world must decide what is to be done.  Stop the Taliban now, or wait and deal with the detritus of failed policies after it is far too late.  Pakistan is the “Sick Man of South Asia,” and like the old Ottoman Empire, it is far too large and dangerous to let it fall apart without major consequences for the entire region and the world.

India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed neighbors who have already fought three major wars and several minor wars against each other, exchanged fire across their mutual border in the Kashmir region.

See the article below from http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/03/21/asia/AS-Kashmir-Shooting.php

for more information:

Indian troops were fired upon across the heavily fortified frontier in the Himalayan region of Kashmir, injuring a soldier, army officials said Saturday, even as Pakistan blamed Indian army soldiers for the shooting.

Brig. Gopala Krishnan Murali, a senior Indian army officer in India’s Jammu-Kashmir state, would not say whether suspected Islamic rebels or Pakistani soldiers initiated Friday’s firing, but said that a formal complaint had been lodged with Pakistan.

Pakistan’s army, meanwhile, said it was Indian troops who “resorted to unprovoked firing.” An army statement said that a protest had been filed “for cease-fire violation.”

The overwhelmingly Muslim region has been the focus of two of the three wars between India and Pakistan, who both claim Kashmir. Relations between the two have been further strained by last year’s terror attacks in Mumbai that killed 164 people.

India has blamed the attack on Lashkar-e-Taiba, an Islamist militant group widely believed to be created by Pakistani intelligence agencies in the 1980s to fight Indian rule in the divided Kashmir region.

A gunbattle broke out in the Uri region, about 80 miles (130 kilometers) west of the state capital of Srinagar, after Indian forces were fired upon, Murali said. They returned fire, and the clash lasted about three hours.

Exchanges of gunfire along the Line of Control — as the frontier separating Indian and Pakistani territory in Kashmir is known — were a regular occurrence before the two sides signed a cease-fire in late 2003. There have been several incidents since the agreement, with both sides accusing the other of initiating the shootings.

This is the first such incident this year, Indian army spokesman Lt. Col. J.S. Brar said.

Nearly a dozen Islamic rebel groups have been fighting for Kashmir’s independence from India or its merger with Pakistan. More than 68,000 people, most of them civilians, have been killed in the conflict since 1989, and India routinely accuses Pakistan of assisting the insurgents, a charge Islamabad denies.

Source: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/03/21/asia/AS-Kashmir-Shooting.php

Comments by Indian officials indicate that the terrorists who
attacked Mumbai this week are believed to be affiliated with the Muslim
Kashmiri group, Lashkar -e- Taiba.  Lashkar is a violent
organization which seeks to separate Muslim-majority Kashmir from India.

Lashkar -e- Taiba has received major aid and training from
Pakistan's intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)
in the past, and if Lashkar is indeed implicated in the Mumbai attacks,
India may feel it has to respond with military force against Pakistan.

However, regardless of which Muslim extremist group is behind the
attack, most likely one of their goals is to sabotage the recent
rapprochement between the sub-continent's two most long-standing
enemies.  Pakistan's new civilian leadership has been trying to
increase peace talks with India, but this new policy does not have the
backing of Pakistan's security services, including the powerful
ISI. 

If India retaliates militarily against targets in Pakistan, it could
very well set off another major war between two old foes, who now both
possess nuclear weapons.  This situation could get very worse,
very quickly.

What is known about the Mumbai attacks as of Friday morning, Nov. 28, 2008

• Attackers entered the Mumbai waterfront via boats near the Gateway
of India monument on Wednesday night. They then hijacked cars,
including a police van, and split into at least three groups to carry
out their attacks.

• One group headed toward the Cafe Leopold, a popular spot for
Western tourists, firing their weapons at people on the street. The
terrorists then opened fire and threw grenades at the Chhatrapati
Shivaji Terminus railway station. As police toward the scene of the
attacks, the terrorists then attacked the Cama Hospital, which is a
medical facility for women and infants. Several people were killed at
the hospital, with the standoff ending Thursday morning.

• Two other groups of attackers entered the Oberoi and Taj Mahal
hotels, taking hostages in both luxury hotels. By Friday, the
authorities claimed that the situation at the Oberoi was over.

• Terrorists took hostages at the Chabad House (at 5 Hormusji Street
- Nariman House – Colaba Mumbai, 400-005 India ), a Jewish religious
center in Mumbai where several Jewish families live. Rabbi Gavriel
Holtzberg, the city's envoy for the community, was being held inside
with his wife, a member of the Hasidic Jewish movement said. Gunmen and
hostages still were believed to be in the house Friday morning when
police retook Chabad House, and reported that 5 hostages and 2
terrorists were found dead.

Explosions at the Chabad House, Mumbai, India.

• Fire brigades battled blazes at both hotels. By early Friday, it
appeared what had been a major fire at the Oberoi had been
extinguished.

• By Friday morning, 146 had been killed in the attacks, including
at least six foreigners, authorities said. An Italian and a Briton were
among the confirmed dead. More than 300 people were wounded, including
seven Britons, three Americans and two Australians.

• At least nine gunmen were killed in fighting with police by Friday
morning. Also among the dead were 14 police officers and the chief of
the Mumbai police anti-terror squad. Authorities said they believe the
attacks were carried out by a total of about 26 terrorists.

• The Indian navy had detained a ship off the west coast with the
help of the Indian coast guard. It is believed that the attackers'
boats came from this ship, and that they believe the ship is from
Karachi, Pakistan. The Pakistani government has denied any involvement
in the Mumbai attacks.

• Several Indian news outlets report a group called the Deccan
Mujahedeen e-mailed them to claim responsibility. Intelligence
officials say little is known about the group. U.S. officials and
security analysts say the sophistication of the attacks may indicate a
more-established group is involved.

Once again, the Western Indian city of Mumbai was rocked by
terrorist attacks, as at least 100 died in a coordinated terror
operation apparently aimed, at least partially, at American
and British citizens.

Early reports indicate the coordinated attacks targeted at least ten
locations in Mumbai, which is a major financial center in India.
Reports indicate between 87 to 100 people died, with several hundred
wounded.

Indian news sources indicate a group calling itself the Deccan
Mujahedeen claimed credit for the attacks. Targets included two major
hotels frequented by Westerners, as well as the train station and a
hospital. 

As more details emerge, one major thing to look for is who India
blames for this attack.  Many past terrorist attacks have been
blamed on Kashmiri separatists, who in the past have operated with
significant support from Pakistan.  There are elements in the
Indian government and in the military, for strong responses to any
sort of Islamic terrorism, and the more right-wing Hindu nationalist
elements in India will likely cry out for revenge, either on India's
large Muslim minority, or on Pakistan itself.  Either response
would likely play directly into the hands of whichever militant group
is really behind this attack. 

Indian and Pakistani forces exchanged fire across their contested common border in the Kashmir region on July 26.  This is the second such military engagement in July.  A previous clash occurred on July 10, 2008. 

India and Pakistan have fought several wars in the past, and the Kashmir region is a major flashpoint for their ongoing conflict.  Relations have improved greatly since 2002, but recent terrorist attacks against Indian targets in Afghanistan (the Indian embassy) and in Indian cities in July, most likely by Militant Muslim terrorists, have increased the tensions.

Pakistan, India trade fire along LoC–July 26

For a listing of Indo-Pakistani wars, see http://www.historyguy.com/indo_pakistani-wars.html

Pakistan’s Violent Political History Continues
With Bhutto’s Assassination

With the political assassination of former Prime
Minister Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007, Pakistan’s bloody
tradition of political violence continues to plague an already
fractured and unstable country.

A short list of significant acts of political
violence in Pakistan. Note that Pakistan has been an independent
nation only since 1947.

–1947-Independence from the British and the
violent separation from India (several million killed in Pakistan and
India)

–First Kashmir War
(1947-1948) with India

–1948–Pakistani
annexation of Baluchistan, military suppression of Baluch
nationalists.

–1951–Assassination of
Pakistan’s first Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan

–Pakistan’s first President, Iskandar Mirza,
throws out the constitution and declares martial law on October 7,
1958

–General Ayub Khan overthrows Iskander Mirza in a
bloodless coup d’etat on October 7, 1958.

–1958-1960–Pakistani military suppression of
Baluch nationalists

–Second Kashmir War (1965)
with India

–Bangladesh War of
Independence (1971) from Pakistan (Bangladesh had, from 1947 to 1971,
been part of Pakistan, best known as East Pakistan). India intervened
in the war to aid Bangladesh against Pakistan

–1973-1976-Rebellion in
Baluchistan, a province in southwestern Pakistan

–1977–Military coup
overthrows Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. He was replaced by
General Zia al-Huq.

–1979–Former Prime
Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was executed after a controversial
trial.

–Kargil
War (Kashmir Border Conflict) border
war with India

–October, 1999–General Pervez
Musharraf overthrows
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in a bloodless military coup

–Waziristan
War
(2004-Present)-against tribal rebels and al-Qaida fighters in the
Northwest border region

–2003–Two unsuccessful
assassination attempts against President Pervez
Musharraf

–July, 2003–Siege and Battle at the Red Mosque–over 100 killed.

–October 18,
2007–Assassination attempt on former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto
upon her return from exile

–December 27,
2007–Assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in
Rawalpindi