War and Conflict Journal

al-Shabab War in Somalia Update:

After the disintigration of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) after the U.S.-aided Ethiopian Invasion of 2006, the al-Shabab militia became the leading Islamist military group. In 2007, Shabab publicly aligned itself with al-Qaida, and has waged a bloody guerrilla war against the TFG government forces and the African Union troops (primarily troops from Uganda and Burundi), in Mogadishu and in southern Somalia. Al-Shabab is considered a terrorist group by Australia, Canada, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. (see also U.S. Special Forces Attack on al-Qaida in Somalia (September, 2009)

Shabab engaged in a terrorist attack in Uganda in 2010, and in the autumn of 2011, Shabab militants kidnapped several foreigners from Kenyan soil, prompting a Kenyan military intervention in southern Somalia to battle the Shabab fighters. Kenyan government sources claimed that the goal of their invasion was to end the Shabab presence in the southern Somali city of Kismayo.

Witnesses reported seeing 25Kenyan armoured vehicles carrying Kenyan soldiers passing through the Somali town of Dhobley, and there were reports of warplanes bombing two Shabab bases near the border.

According to the BBC, Somali government troops are acting in conjunction with the Kenyan forces ito attack the al-Shabab-controlled areas in southern Somalia. The third day of the Kenyan offensive featured a slowing down of Kenyan forces due to heavy rain and mud in a region with few paved roads.

Map of Kenya and southern Somalia in 2011

http://www.historyguy.com/somalia_conflict_shabab_war.htm

Kenyan forces intervene in southern Somalia to battle the al-Shabab Islamist militia.  Shabab has engaged in terrorist activities in Somalia, Uganda, and Kenya, and is allied with al-Qaida.

Kenya and the Transitional Somali government are supported by the United States.  And, can it be a coincidence that this intevention by an American-allied African nation takes place only two days after President Obama announces the American intervention in the Lord’s Resistance Army Insurgency that has bedeviled Uganda, southern Sudan, Congo, and the Central African Republic?  Note that Uganda,  has thousands of troops in Somalia in support of the transitional government.

http://www.historyguy.com/somalia_conflict_shabab_war.htm

September 1, 2009, will mark the 70th anniversary of the Nazi German invasion of Poland, which sparked World War Two in Europe.  Within days of the invasion, Britain, France, and others declared war on Germany in response.  On September 17, the Soviet Union invaded Poland from the East, sealing the eastern European nation’s fate.  Poland was to be occupied (in part or in whole), for the rest of the war, and would lose a larger percentage of its population due to the war than any other participant in World War Two.

Read more at http://www.historyguy.com/worldwartwo/german_invasion_of_poland_1939.htm

The Iraq War began on March 19, 2003 with the U.S.-British invasion of Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship.  As the 6th anniversary of that invasion passes, U.S. war deaths reach 4,260.  British deaths are holding at 179 deaths.

For more information: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/03/22/america/Iraq-US-Deaths.php

As of Saturday, March 21, 2009, at least 4,260 members of the U.S. military had died in the Iraq war since it began in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count.

The figure includes eight military civilians killed in action. At least 3,425 military personnel died as a result of hostile action, according to the military’s numbers.

The AP count is one fewer than the Defense Department’s tally, last updated Friday at 10 a.m. EDT.

The British military has reported 179 deaths; Italy, 33; Ukraine, 18; Poland, 21; Bulgaria, 13; Spain, 11; Denmark, seven; El Salvador, five; Slovakia, four; Latvia and Georgia, three each; Estonia, Netherlands, Thailand and Romania, two each; and Australia, Hungary, Kazakhstan and South Korea, one death each.

Source: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/03/22/america/Iraq-US-Deaths.php

The United States increased its public criticism of Russia on Sunday, August 10, as the Russians and their Abkhazian proxies opened a second front in their war against the former Soviet Republic of Georgia. As the U.S. Air Force ferried Georgia’s Iraq contingent back home, American political and national security officials made some possibly disturbing public comments about possible American involvement in the Georgia-Russia War:

"[Vice-President Dick] Cheney was even more pointed, telling [Georgian President] Saakashvili on Sunday afternoon that "Russian aggression must not go unanswered," according to his press secretary.

Briefing reporters traveling with Bush on Sunday, Deputy National Security Adviser James F. Jeffrey would not rule out the use of American force to assist Georgia but said that was not the current focus of U.S. efforts. "–Washington Post, August 10, 2008

An interesting, and very important point here, is that a top American National Security official, James Jeffrey, said the U.S. would not "rule out the use of American force…" in aiding Georgia. If this were any other nation in that part of the world, this would be a credible threat, but realistically, what can the U.S. do short of sending a few thousand Marines or an Airborne brigade into harm’s way? If the Russians drive on the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, the U.S. could send in troops to act as a trip-wire, (i.e. this means playing a deadly game of "chicken" with the Russians in their own backyard), daring them to attack what would at first be a thin screen of American troops likely blocking the approaches to the Georgian capital. With a lot of our military resources tied up in ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, where would we get the troops to help the Georgians? Air power? Again, unless the Turks let the U.S. fly out of Incirlik air base in Turkey, or at least grant overfly rights for from American bases in Iraq, how would we get to Georgia? And could the U.S. realistically achieve air superiority over Georgia? Russia has bases much nearer the war zone, and would not have the logistical issues the U.S. would face. On the other hand, every time American-made warplanes engaged Soviet and Russian-made warplanes over the skies of Indochina or in the various Arab-Israeli wars, the Russian-made products fared badly. Though it is probably safe to assume that Russian pilots are better trained and more skilled than Syrian or Vietnamese pilots of those past wars.

Whatever planning is going on in the Pentagon and at the White House, (and you know many American military and strategic professionals are pulling all-nighters preparing for the possibility of American intervention in the Georgia-Russia War, they had best look at this realistically. Miscalculations of enemy intent and capabilities have started some very big wars in the past.

For regularly updated information on the ongoing war between Russia and Georgia, visit: The Georgia-Russia War at Historyguy.com

By August 10, Russian air power continued to dominate the skies above Georgia, with bombing of the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. Also, the war expanded to the naval front, with the Russian navy deploying warships off the Georgian coast. The Kremlin asserted that Russian forces sank a Georgian missile boat that attempted to attack Russian naval forces off the Black Sea coast. The Georgians said that Russian tanks had invaded Georgia proper, having moved south out of Ossetia into Georgian territory.

The Ukraine, where the Russian ships are based, said that it had the right to deny re-docking privileges to the ships upon their return. Ukraine, like Georgia, has sought to move away from Russian influence and seek to join NATO. Also on the 10th, American military transport aircraft began ferrying Georgia’s Iraq contingent back home to face the invading Russians.

Russian and Abkhazian troops moved into the Georgian-contolled Kodori Gorge on on August 10, in a major expansion of the war.

For regularly updated information on the ongoing war between Russia and Georgia, visit: The Georgia-Russia War at Historyguy.com

Sources and Links:

Georgia under all-out attack in breakaway Abkhazia: Separatist rebels and Russian forces launch attack on Georgian stronghold in Black Sea territory–Guardian.co.uk, August 10, 2008

Russia expands Georgia blitz, deploys ships–Associated Press, August 10, 2008

With the recent publicity surrounding the ongoing repression in Tibet by the Chinese Communist Party, and the public protests around the world as the Olympic torch makes its way to Beijing, I have received several queries from readers about the history of conflicts between Tibet and China. 

There is a new web page on the historyguy.com site detailing some of these Sino-Tibetan Wars and Conflicts.  It is at: http://www.historyguy.com/tibet_china_wars_conflicts.html

While normally I take as neutral a position as possible while explaining world conflicts on the main historyguy.com website, and leaving my more opinionated commentary for this blog, I come down against the continued repression by the Chinese Communist Party in Tibet.  I see a distinction in identifying the brutality and evil of the occupation as sourced in the Communist ideology than in any innately Chinese cultural aspects.  When an authoritarian, dictatorial regime conquers a smaller, basically defenseless nation, it can never be justified.  I liken the Chinese occupation of Tibet with the other evil occupations of history, such as the Nazi occupation of Czechoslovakia, or the Soviet conquest of the Baltic States (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia).

Those once-captive nations eventually regained their freedom, and one day too, Tibet may once again see the back-end of the Communist occupying forces, just as, after the 1911 Revolution, Tibet saw the last of the Manchu Imperial occupation army.   

Signs point to a possible U.S./NATO/Israeli war against Iran/Syria/Hezbollah in the near future.

Tensions between Israel and Syria escalated in early April as Israel conducts nation-wide civil defense drills simulating a domestic response to a potential Hezbollah/Syrian/Iranian attack with biological and chemical weapons. This drill comes amid continued Hezbollah threats to avenge the recent assassination of one of its leaders. Supposedly in response to Israel’s drill, Syria has put its military on alert.

In addition, Israel recently conducted a joint naval exercise with NATO forces in the Mediterranean Sea. France, Britain, Germany and other NATO nations, including the U.S. have been warning of Iran’s nuclear ambitions this past year.

It is widely assumed in the U.S. and throughout the world, that the Bush/Cheney Administration, unsure of John McCain’s chances of beating the Democrats for the White House, and unwilling to leave a potentially nuclear Iran to be dealt with by an Obama or Clinton administration, will do whatever it takes to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. As of April, 2008, only ten months remain for President Bush to act. Also, a preemptive war against Iran, if it goes well (a decidedly big IF), will likely boost Senator McCain’s chances against the presumed Clinton and/or Obama Democratic ticket in November.

The recent removal of Admiral Fallon, a critic of a potential Iran War, also clears the way within the military leadership for a fully-supported effort to exercise the will of the Commander-in-Chief.

Time will tell if this war scenario plays out, but the odds are heavily stacked in favor of a wider regional war pitting the Western allies (plus Israel) against Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah.

Links and Sources:

Syria Plans Emergency Drill amid Fears of War with Israel–Voice of America, April 9, 2008

Israeli intel projects a one-month war with Syria–World Tribune.com, April 9, 2008

US Military Strike set on Iran? by W. Joseph Stroupe of the International Analyst Network, April 7, 2008

Turkish forces withdrew from orthern Iraq on Feb. 29, concluding an eight-day offensive in the northern Iraqi mountains against the PKK Kurdish rebels who use Iraq as a save haven.

The Turkish military claims to have killed 237 PKK rebels, while losing 27 of its own men.

Turkish tank during the anit-PKK offensive in Northern Iraq, February, 2008.

Photo by Reuters