War and Conflict Journal

The American helicopter raid into Syria this week which targeted an al-Qaida leader based there, may presage a similar attack into Iran in the near future. Just as missile strikes and a very similar commando raid into Pakistan's border region in September may have foreshadowed this raid into Syria's border area, the next logical target in the ongoing attempt to curtail cross-border aid and supply to al-Qaida and other insurgents into Iraq may be Iran.

Many analysts and pundits have mulled over the possibility of an "October Surprise" in the middle east which could affect the American Presidential race.  The theory being that an international crisis or event could highlight the foreign policy experience of John McCain over his opponent, Barack Obama.  Also, if a major military event took place, the American public may automatically back the party in power (the Republican), and this close to Election Day, that may translate into more votes for McCain.

This theory is faulty on several fronts.  First, the economy will continue to be Issue #1, and little short of a major terror attack on the U.S. homeland will change that.  Second, at this point in the war and in the election campaign, the American public would likely turn on the Bush Administration and, by extension, John McCain if it perceived an attempt to manipulate the election with the lives of American service members.

And then there is the real danger.  George W. Bush and Dick Cheney have been clear that they view the development of Iranian nuclear weapons to be a grave and mortal danger the the United States and its allies, particularly Israel.  Rather than start something with Iran before the election, in what the history books and public opinion would surely condemn as a blatant and heavy-handed attempt to influence the election, it is far more likely that the long-feared "Iran War" will begin after Barack Obama wins the election, which, as of this writing, seems very likely to occur.

Were McCain to take office, Bush and Cheney would likely feel assured that their policies on Iran and the nuclear issue would be carried on by McCain.  The same is not true of a likely Obama Administration.  Thus, in order to save America, Israel, and much of Europe from a nuclear-armed Iran, it is highly likely that at some point in the 77 day transition period between Election Day and Inauguration Day, an incident will occur, or a commando raid similar to those carried out on Pakistan and Syria will take place on Iranian soil.  Or, Israel may elect to attack Iran itself, with the full assurance of American support and involvement.

If Obama wins, watch for signs of military buildup and preparation.  This Iran War scenario is all the more likely after the raids on Pakistan and Syria.  After all, what do President Bush and Vice-President Cheney have to worry about if the American public disapproves of such a war?  Elect them out of office?  President Obama may be faced with a much more dangerous, chaotic, and violent world than now exists.

Weekly Update–Week of November 25, 2007

Iraq War Casualties (U.S.)–As of Nov. 25, 2007

U.S. Military Casualties:

    Total Fatalities–3,875

    Fatalities due to Hostile Action–3,157

    Total Wounded–28,350

    U.S. Civilian Fatalities–158  (Contractors killed in Iraq)

Total Allied Fatalities:  300

Malaysia’s ethnic Indian community staged its largest anti-government protest on Sunday, November 25, 2007, with more than 10,000 protesters taking to the streets to complain about racial discrimination. Police fired tear gas and used water cannons to break up the protests. At least 20 were arrested.

Israel-Palestinian Conflict:

The upcoming peace conference at Annapolis, Maryland will host not only leaders from the U.S., Israel and the Palestinian Authority, but it will also feature representatives from the governments of Syria and Saudi Arabia. Diplomats from the Arab League, the European Union, Russia, and China are also expected to attend.

Fighting broke out November 25 between Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters of Fatah’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade. Three Palestinian militants were killed, and seven others were injured in the West Bank and Gaza Strip during armed clashes with Israeli soldiers. Over 35 people were arrested in the West Bank. Dozens of Israeli soldiers with armored vehicles entered the Marba’ at Hanoun neighborhood of Ramallah on the West Bank and exchanged shots with Fatah’s military wing. Also on Nov. 25, Israeli forces killed two Palestinian militants from the Islamic Jihad and the Popular Resistance Committees (PRC) in the area east of al-Maghazi refugee camp in central Gaza Strip.

South America:

Venezuela and Colombia moved toward a diplomatic crisis on Sunday Nov. 25, following an an exchange of insults between Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez and the Colombian President, Álvaro Uribe. The two South American nations are neighbors, but Chavez is a major critic of American policies in Latin America, while Uribe is supported by the Bush Administration. Columbia is fighting a leftist insurgency and in the past, Colombia has expressed concern over large Venezuelan arms purchases; fearing that some of the small-arms purchased with Chavez’ oil money may end up in the hands of Colombian rebels. Look for the Bush Administration to support Colombia in any dispute with Chavez.

Thailand:

The Thai Army captured the eight Muslim insurgents arrested in a raid November 24, 2007 on an insurgent hideout in the troubled southern province of Narathiwat, Thailand.

Since January 2004, more than 2,600 people have died in fighting and terrorism in the Muslim-majority southern provinces of Pattani, Narathiwat and Yala where Muslim insurgents are fighting for independence from Thailand.

Sri Lanka:

Sri Lankan air force jets attacked a satellite communications center operated by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), in an attempt to reduce the Tamil rebels’ intelligence gathering-capability. The military attacked a Tamil base at Dharmapuram, near the LTTE’s headquarters at Kilinochchi in northern Sri Lanka, on November 25. The LTTE claimed the attack was on a civilian settlement, killing four people.

In a separate clash, the Sri Lankan army repulsed an attack by the Tamil Tigers Nov. 25 near Mannar in the northwest, killing at least five rebels.

Nepal:

Nepal’s former rebel leader, Prachanda, threatened to renew the long-standing civil war if his demands for immediate abolition of the monarchy are not met. Prachanda and his Maoist followers, while giving up the armed struggle for now, have been arguing with mainstream political parties over their demands for Nepal to be immediately declared a republic. The Maoists ended their decade-long insurgency in November of 2006. The Nepal Civil War claimed over 13,000 lives.