War and Conflict Journal

al-Shabab War in Somalia Update:

After the disintigration of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) after the U.S.-aided Ethiopian Invasion of 2006, the al-Shabab militia became the leading Islamist military group. In 2007, Shabab publicly aligned itself with al-Qaida, and has waged a bloody guerrilla war against the TFG government forces and the African Union troops (primarily troops from Uganda and Burundi), in Mogadishu and in southern Somalia. Al-Shabab is considered a terrorist group by Australia, Canada, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. (see also U.S. Special Forces Attack on al-Qaida in Somalia (September, 2009)

Shabab engaged in a terrorist attack in Uganda in 2010, and in the autumn of 2011, Shabab militants kidnapped several foreigners from Kenyan soil, prompting a Kenyan military intervention in southern Somalia to battle the Shabab fighters. Kenyan government sources claimed that the goal of their invasion was to end the Shabab presence in the southern Somali city of Kismayo.

Witnesses reported seeing 25Kenyan armoured vehicles carrying Kenyan soldiers passing through the Somali town of Dhobley, and there were reports of warplanes bombing two Shabab bases near the border.

According to the BBC, Somali government troops are acting in conjunction with the Kenyan forces ito attack the al-Shabab-controlled areas in southern Somalia. The third day of the Kenyan offensive featured a slowing down of Kenyan forces due to heavy rain and mud in a region with few paved roads.

Map of Kenya and southern Somalia in 2011

http://www.historyguy.com/somalia_conflict_shabab_war.htm

Kenyan forces intervene in southern Somalia to battle the al-Shabab Islamist militia.  Shabab has engaged in terrorist activities in Somalia, Uganda, and Kenya, and is allied with al-Qaida.

Kenya and the Transitional Somali government are supported by the United States.  And, can it be a coincidence that this intevention by an American-allied African nation takes place only two days after President Obama announces the American intervention in the Lord’s Resistance Army Insurgency that has bedeviled Uganda, southern Sudan, Congo, and the Central African Republic?  Note that Uganda,  has thousands of troops in Somalia in support of the transitional government.

http://www.historyguy.com/somalia_conflict_shabab_war.htm

New York Times Article on the escalating drone war against al-Qaida and Shahab in Somalia at http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/02/world/africa/02somalia.html

American Special Forces attacked vehicles in Somalia carrying members of al-Qaida’s Somalia and Kenya branch on September 14, 2009. The dead included Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, wanted for the 2002 car bombing of a beach resort in Kenya and an attempt to shoot down an Israeli airliner. He was a leader of the local al-Qaida branch. Nabhan was a 30-year old Kenyan who is suspected of being behind the 2002 attacks in Kenya ttargeting Israelis. Ten Kenyans and three Israelis died in the bombing of an Israeli-owned hotel in Mombasa. Ground-to-air missiles were fired at the Israeli airliner as it took off from the city’s airport but missed the jet. Nabhan is believed to be one of those who fired a missile. He later escaped in Somalia, which is a largly lawless nation with a strong al-Qaida presence.

Previous American attacks on al-Qaida in Somalia involved missile attacks which were relatively imprecise, and created casualties among Somali civilians. This attack was carried out by helicopters which fired on the vehicles. Witnesses reported that after the helicopter attack concluded, American troops rappelled to the ground, collected the dead and wounded, and flew off. One Somali official said that the attack produced five dead.

The last confirmed American troop presence in Somalia was in 1993, during the Battle of Mogadishu. When Ethiopia invaded Somali in 2005 and 2006, some reports indicated that small numbers of U.S. troops accompanied the Ethiopians, searching for al-Qaida leaders.

See http://www.historyguy.com/special_forces_attack_al-qaida_somalia.htm

Somali pirates apparently bit off more than they could chew when the crew of the American cargo vessel, the Maersk Alabama, resisted the pirates’ attempt to hijack their ship.  The Somali pirates attacked some 380 miles off the coast of Somalia, and initially took control of the ship.  However, before the American naval vessel, the USS Bainbridge could arrive, the crew had fought back, forcing the pirates to abandon ship.  Unfortunately, the pirates kept the Maersk Alabama’s captain, Richard Phillips as a hostage.

For more information, see http://www.historyguy.com/somali_pirate_attack_maersk_alabama.htm

Somalia is a chaotic and nearly governmentless nation off the east coast of Africa, and it is home to the world's best known contemporary pirates. These pirates, who operate a financially lucrative ship-hijacking operation, capture merchant ships off the coasts of Yemen, Somalia, and Kenya, and then hold them for ransom. The ship owners and their insurance companies usually pay the ransom, sometimes in the millions of dollars, because it is far cheaper than losing the ship and cargo. For example, the Saudi oil tanker seized on Nov. 17, 2008, had just been built, at a cost of $150 million, and carried an oil cargo valued at $100 million. Paying a ransom of even several million dollars would save the ship and crew.

Naval vessels from around the world (United Stated, United Kingdom, Russia, India, others), patrol the Somali coast to…http://www.historyguy.com/somali_pirate_attacks.htm  Go to History Guy.com to see the rest of the article

Eritrea and Djibouti engaged in a military clash along their mutual border over the course of three days, June 10- 13, 2008, resulting in the deaths of nine Djibouti soldiers, and the wounding of around 60 others. Some reports indicate that the French Foreign Legion in Djibouti provided logistical and medical aid to the Djibouti forces during the battles.

Previously, in mid-April, 2008, Djibouti accused Eritrea of sending troops across the border and digging trenches and defensive emplacements inside Djibouti.

Tensions between these Horn of Africa neighbors have been escalating, in large part due to the fact that Djibouti is allied to Ethiopia, France, and the United States.  Ethiopia and Eritrea have fought two bloody wars, and maintain large military forces on their mutual border as they continue to view each other as foes.  Also, Eritrea has been accused of aiding Islamist forces in Somalia, where they have fought against intervening Ethiopian and American forces since late 2006.

The 13th Demi-Brigade of the French Foreign Legion, with 2,850 troops, shares a military base, called Camp Lemonier, with the Combined Joint Task Force Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) of the United States Central Command, since 2002.

Using their base at Camp Lemonier, American forces launched a Predator drone which flew over neighboring Yemen in 2002 which fired a Hellfire missile, killing al-Qaida operatives Abu Ali al-Harithi and Ahmed Hijazi, along with four other suspected terrorists. al-Harithi was believed to be a leader in the attack on the USS Cole in Yemeni waters in October of 2000. American forces based in Djibouti at Camp Lemonier also launched missions against Islamist forces in Somalia during the Ethiopian intervention which began in December of 2006.

Links:

http://www.eritreadaily.net/News0108/article0806141.htm

http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL12617339

http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnL11187409.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Ras_Doumeira_border_crisis

http://www.historyguy.com/eritrea-djibouti_2008_war.html

Analysis:  Ethiopia’s war in Somalia continues to resemble a dusty version of Vietnam, or an African version of Iraq.  Unlike the U.S. though, Ethiopia does not have the financial or military resources to "Surge" in Somalia as the U.S. has done (with apparent success) in Iraq.  How is Ethiopia paying for this war, anyway?

Islamic Insurgents Briefly Capture Somali Military Airfield

By VOA
News

25 January 2008

Reports from Somalia say Islamic insurgents
briefly captured the nation’s largest military airfield Friday, killing
two soldiers and escaping with stolen weapons.

Somali army officials and witnesses say militants attacked the
airport at Baledogle, about 100 kilometers south of the capital,
Mogadishu.  They say the militants relinquished control after seizing
weapons that were stored there.

Fighters with the al-Shabaab Islamic rebel group took credit for the attack on local radio.

Islamist insurgents have been battling the Somali government and
allied Ethiopian troops for the past year.  The fighting has killed
thousands and prompted an estimated 600,000 more to flee Mogadishu.

On Wednesday, militants fired mortar rounds near the presidential
palace about the same time that African Union Peace and Security
Commissioner Sa’id Djinnit met with Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein.

Djinnit presented Somali leaders with a four-point AU peace plan
aimed at stopping the fighting.  The plan includes a call for greater
international involvement in peacekeeping operations.

Djinnit said the 1,800 AU peacekeepers in Mogadishu are doing a
"wonderful job."  But he accused the international community of
abandoning Somalia.  Djinnit urged the U.N. Security Council to
re-establish a peacekeeping mission.

Somalia has been without an effective central government since 1991,
when warlords overthrew dictator Mohamad Siad Barre.  A number of
factions have been fighting each other for control while a transitional
government, set up ahead of scheduled elections, tries to assert its
authority

As Ethiopia marks the first anniversary of her
intervention and immersion in Somalia’s ongoing civil war, reports
indicate that fighting has broken out on the Eritrea-Ethiopia
border.

According to the Voice
of America:

"Eritrea has accused Ethiopia of
   attacking its security forces along the two countries’ disputed
   border.
   
   

In a statement posted on its Web site late
   Wednesday, the Asmara government said Ethiopian troops made a
   failed, small-scale attack late Tuesday on Eritrean forces in the
   South Tsorona area."

At this point, Ethiopia is denying launching any
type of attack. It is believed that Eritrea is waging a proxy war
against Ethiopia in Somalia; supplying weapons and other material to
the Islamist resistance fighting against the Somali government and
its Ethiopian allies.

The two Horn of Africa neighbors waged a bloody
border war from 1998-2000, in which over 70,000 died. The border
dispute that sparked that war remains unresolved. Eritrea gained its
independence from Ethiopia after a thirty-year long war from 1961 to
1991.

According to the International
Crisis Group‘s (ICG) Africa
Briefing of November 5, 2007:

"The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will
   resume their war in the next several weeks is very real. A
   military build-up along the common border over the past few months
   has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military
   solution if hostilities restart; more likely is a protracted
   conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia
   and a dramatic humanitarian crisis."

That report mentions a resumption of war "in the
next few weeks is very real." Reports from UN troops on the ground in
the Eritrea-Ethiopia border region of gunfire and combat on December,
26, 2007, is, literally "a few weeks" after the ICG report’s
warning.

Also, the December 13, 2007 edition of The
Economist, in an article on the ongoing border discussions and
disagreements, said:

"This time Mr Zenawi’s [Ethiopia's
   leader] belligerence comes as the Eritrea-Ethiopia Border
   Commission wound up business this month, with no agreed
   demarcation. In 2002 it awarded the disputed village of Badme to
   Eritrea. Ethiopia rejected the verdict, and has since used
   diplomatic verbiage to obfuscate and stall."

This statement, by a very respected publication,
along with the ICG’s prediction of warfare for mid-to-late December,
gives rise to increased fears that the reports of fighting on the
border may be part of a larger campaign to redraw the border and
bring things to a head.

Other links and news reports on the new fighting
between Eritrea and Ethiopia:

Fear
of War Increasing in Horn of
Africa–Associated Press, Dec. 26,
2007

Exchange
of gunfire on Eritrea-Ethiopia border:
UN–AFP, Dec. 27, 2007

Ethiopia
denies Eritrea’s fresh accusation on border
attack-Sudan Tribune, December 28 2007

The BBC has a very good article on the implications of the
Ethiopian intervention in Somalia, which is now at the one-year
mark.

See this article at:  Ethiopia
in Somalia: One year on

One very interesting point is that the Ethiopian government admits
that it was warned by the United States Central Commander, General
John Abizaid, that an invasion of Somalia would be a mistake. Abizaid
warned the Ethiopians that Somalia would become "Ethiopia’s
Iraq."

And, like America’s predicament in Iraq, with a possible face-down
with Iran, and other fronts in the War on Terror, Ethiopia also has
multiple fronts, with the strengthening of the long-running Ogaden
insurgency, and a potential new war with Eritrea to the north.

Analysis: Look for Eritrea to make a move to escalate either their
aid to the Somalis and Ogaden rebels, and/or to put pressure on
Ethiopia along the border. Reports from the United Nations indicate a
new border conflict is brewing.