War and Conflict Journal

Pakistan is once again coming under fire, literally, for serving as a safe haven for Afghan Taliban forces using the ill-defined border region as a base from which they launch attacks on NATO/ISAF/Afghan forces inside Afghanistan.  Below are incidents and conflicts involving the NATO/ISAF mission in Afghanistan and Pakistan.  See also http://www.historyguy.com/wars_of_pakistan.htm

Video of NATO Raid on Pakistan
U.S. Drone War in Pakistan (2004-Present)–The American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) uses unmanned Predator drone aircraft to cross the Pakistani border and launch missiles at suspected Taliban and al-Qaida forces and camps. Pakistan repeatedly denounces these attacks as a violation of their sovereignty. Various sources place the number of Pakistani/Taliban/al-Qaida casualties as a result of these attacks at between 1,700 and 2,600 as of November, 2011.

NATO Raid on Pakistan Military Outpost (Sept. 30, 2010)–NATO helicopters attack a border outpost, killing three Pakistani soldiers. Pakistan retaliates by closing the border to NATO supplies for two weeks.

U.S. Navy SEAL Raid on Abbottabad, Pakistan (May 1, 2011)–U.S. Special Forces raided a compound inside Pakistan, killing al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.

NATO Raids on Pakistan Military Outposts (Nov. 25, 2011)–NATO aircraft attacked two Pakistani border posts, killing at least 24 Pakistani troops. NATO was attempting to target Taliban forces along the border, in Salala, a village in Pakistan’s Mohmand tirbal area near the border with Kunar Province in Afghanistan. (see Pakistan Border Region Map below).

Pakistan says army airstrikes kill 12 militants | Seattle Times Mobile. Here is the link <a href=”http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mobile/?type=story&id=2013227153&”>http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mobile/?type=story&id=2013227153&</

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An American drone attack apparently killed 80 people in Pakistan’s turbulent and rebellious border country, but the chief target, Jihadist leader Baitullah Mehsud, escaped.

The drone attack struck a funeral held for a Taliban leader killed in an earlier drone strike that same day.  The drone strikes today were the 19^th and 20^th drone attacks since Barack Obama took office in January.  There were only 24 known American drone attacks in Pakistan during the Bush Administration, spanning the years 2004 through January 1, 2009.

Recent drone attacks seem to be targeting Baitullah Mehsud’s organization, which is central to the Taliban rebellion against the Pakistani government.

Strike Reportedly Missed Chief of Pakistani Taliban by Hours—NYTimes, June 24, 2009

Drone attacks on Pakistan by the United States—Wikipedia Article

New page on the war between the Pakistani government and the Taliban rebels.

“Throughout late 2008 and into the spring of 2009, the Taliban continued to make advances further into Pakistan itself. In April, the Taliban expanded out of the Swat Valley into the Buner region, a mere 60 miles from the Pakistani capital of Islamabad. The Pakistani military responded with attacks on the Taliban advance elements, and by early May, the Swat Valley truce seemed to be in tatters as combat escalated.”

See more at:  http://historyguy.com/taliban_war_in_pakistan.htm

On April 22, 2009, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton referred to the military advance of the Pakistani Taliban out of the Swat Valley that has been ceded to them by the weak Pakistani government by stating that this situation in Pakistan formed an “existential threat” to Pakistan and a “mortal threat” to the world, and by extension, to the United States.  She also called on Pakistanis to resist their government’s policy of surrendering national territory to the Islamic extremists.

Tough words, but it remains to be seen if Clinton and the Obama Administration of which she is a part, really have the gumption to truly address this issue.  The Pakistani civilian government seems incapable or unwilling to confront the Taliban in the border areas.  The Taliban (and their al-Qaida allies), rightly see this as weakness on Islamabad’s part, and are pressing their advantage.  It is well known that the Pakistani military and secret services still aid the Taliban in its fight against Allied forces in Afghanistan (see http://warandconflictjournal.com/2008/06/pakistan-aids-taliban-still/).  The military is known to still consider India as its number one foe, and it is reported that important leaders of the military and intelligence services sympathize to some point with the Islamicists in the border regions.   

Clinton is right that the Taliban advances pose a grave threat to Pakistan.  If, by some means, the Taliban or some other radical Islamic group seizes control, or at least weakens the central government enough that the nation falls into true chaos or collapse, then the U.S., Britain, the other NATO allies, and, of course, India, all have to make an important decision.  Pakistan is too large to be allowed to fall into “Failed State” status.  Its nuclear arsenal is far too deadly to fall to ilk like the Taliban or al-Qaida.  It is hard to imagine India standing by as its old, but dangerous enemy becomes perhaps more dangerous through the unpredictability of chaos. 

So, the civilized world must decide what is to be done.  Stop the Taliban now, or wait and deal with the detritus of failed policies after it is far too late.  Pakistan is the “Sick Man of South Asia,” and like the old Ottoman Empire, it is far too large and dangerous to let it fall apart without major consequences for the entire region and the world.

Reports out of Pakistan’s continually rebellious southwestern Baluchistan region indicate that recent fighting between Baluch insurgents and Pakistan’s Frontier Corps in the Dera Bugti area claimed up to 43 lives, broken down as 33 dead insurgents and nine members of the Pakistani paramilitary Corps.

Baluchistan rebels seek independence, and have risen up against the Pakistani central government numerous times since Pakistan’s independence from Britain in the late 1940s.

Source:

Fighting flares in Pakistan’s Baluchistan; 43 killed--Reuters, Jul 21, 2008

The Rand Corporation issued a report stating the obvious and the well-known to anyone paying attention to Afghan affairs:  That elements inside the Pakistani security forces have continued to aid the Taliban.  This despite the alleged alliance between Pakistan and the United States since the Allies invaded Afghanistan to liberate that nation from the Islamic Fundamentalist Taliban and its al-Qaida mercenaries.

The Taliban originally took power in Afghanistan with both covert and overt aid from the Pakistani military and the Pakistani intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) in the 1990s.(see http://www.historyguy.com/afghan_civil_war.html for detailed information on the Taliban’s rise to power).

The United States has been making noise lately about the Pakistani government’s inability or, as this report leads one to believe, lack of desire, to rein in Taliban forces on Pakistani soil.  It is highly likely that if the current situation continues, with Taliban forces using Pakistani territory with impunity, that the U.S. will attack across the border.  Just as in the Vietnam War, when Communist forces used neighboring Cambodia and Laos for sanctuary, the U.S. may see the need to correct the problem itself. 

Whereas the 1970 invasion of Cambodia sparked massive and deadly anti-war protests in the U.S., a repeat of those types of mass demonstrations would be unlikely in America today. Without a military draft to drive millions of youths to the movement, today’s anti-war organizations will not do anything substantial.  In fact, the anti-war movement, if it can justifiably be called a true movement, cares more about the war in Iraq anyway.  Afghanistan is increasingly becoming a truly "Forgotten War," which is a true tragedy, since in many ways, the outcome of this conflict is of more importance than what happens in Iraq.

Analysis:  The U.S. is probably getting ready to cross the border to go after al-Qaida and the Taliban, but is making all of the requisite polite motions toward Pakistan’s soveriegnty first.  Don’t forget that the Bush/Cheney Administration will be out of office in less than a year, and they don’t know who or what will replace them in the Commander-in-Chief’s position.  Many analysts have harped on the possiblity they may attack Iran before they go, but more likely, in the view of the War and Conflict Journal, is a major push to crush the Islamist foe in Pakistan before next January.  And, if they find Osama bin Laden while in Pakistan, all the better.

U.S.
Troops ‘Ready’ to Aid Pakistan–Washington Post, January 25,
2008

The Pentagon is "ready, willing and able" to send U.S. troops to
conduct joint combat operations with Pakistan’s military against
al-Qaeda sanctuaries in Pakistan’s tribal areas, Defense Secretary
Robert M. Gates said yesterday.

The U.S. military is also beginning to construct as many as eight
coordination centers along the Afghan-Pakistani border that will be
staffed by officers from the three countries to more closely share
intelligence and conduct combat operations, according to Maj. Gen.
David Rodriguez, the top U.S. commander for eastern Afghanistan.

The first border center is being built at Torkham Gate in
Afghanistan, a key crossing near the Khyber Pass and about 30 miles
from the Pakistani city of Peshawar, Rodriguez said.

Cross-border attacks into eastern Afghanistan have dropped by more
than 40 percent in the past three months, compared with the same
period last winter, as Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters increasingly
wage war on the Pakistani government, according to Rodriguez and a
U.S. military review of border incidents.

Suicide bombings increased more than tenfold in Pakistan — from
five in 2006 to 60 last year — while they remained relatively
constant in eastern Afghanistan, according to the U.S. military data.
"Insurgents are focusing more on gains and expansion opportunities in
Pakistan," the assessment stated.

Gates and Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff, left little doubt yesterday that they believe U.S. troops –
whether in combat or as trainers — can bolster the efforts of
Pakistan’s military in the rugged and lawless Federally Administered
Tribal Areas, where U.S. officials say about 700 Pakistani troops
have been killed battling al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters.

"If asked to assist, I think we could do a lot," Mullen said at a
Pentagon news briefing.

Gates said that the possible joint combat operations, likely to
involve small teams of U.S. troops, are a topic of "ongoing dialogue"
with Pakistan’s leaders and that U.S. troops would join in the
fighting at Pakistan’s request.

"They have not fully thought through exactly how they intend to
proceed and their strategy going forward," Gates said. "I expect that
that will happen."

Gates said al-Qaeda has allied with other extremists in the border
area, possibly including Baitullah Mehsud, a tribal leader linked to
the Taliban. "They clearly are much more active and working with
other people," he said.

Rodriguez said Pakistani military leaders are increasingly willing
to cooperate in operations on either side of the border. There is "a
growing realization amongst all of them, that everybody needs to do
more together," he said at a Pentagon briefing this week.

Last year, the U.S. military in Afghanistan established a shared
computer link with the Pakistani military’s headquarters and set up
high-frequency radio communications to coordinate cross-border
operations. It also surveyed Pakistani, Afghan and U.S. border
positions, and stepped up training of Afghan border police.

In 2007, 110 American troops died fighting the Taliban and al-Qaida in Afghanistan . 925 Afghan government police also perished in the war.

British losses totaled 41 troops, while the Canadian military lost 30 troops in combat.

4,500 Taliban militants were killed in fighting,

Fighting in Afghanistan escalated in 2007, and the American casualty figures are the highest per year total since the initial invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.

110 US troops die in Afghanistan in 2007–Associated Press, Dec. 31, 2007