War and Conflict Journal

The president of Kenya, Mwai Kibaki, is the declared victor in this year’s very tight presidential election. Kibaki is a member of the Kikuyu ethnic group, or tribe, and his opponent, Raila Odinga, is a member of the Luo tribal group. Violence has broken out, with Odinga supports, who are mostly Luo, battling police and soldiers in the streets. As of 12/31/07, at least 125 Kenyans are reported dead in post-election violence.

Unlike party politics in North American, European and East Asian democracies, electoral politics in Kenya split along ethnic/tribal lines. In a disputed election, such as this one, that makes for a very dangerous political/ethnic/regional fault line that can lead to an all-out civil war.

From the American point of view, Kenya’s new turmoil is a potential impediment to the War on Terror in Eastern Africa, as Kenya has been a solid ally in the campaign against al-Qaida and the Islamist militants battling Ethiopian and Somali government forces in neighboring Somalia.

Post-Election Turmoil Grows in Kenya, With Over 100 Dead–New York Times, Dec. 31, 2007

Scores die in Kenya election riots–Al Jazeera, Dec. 31, 2007