War and Conflict Journal

Saudi Arabia and Yemen are two arabic speaking Sunni
Muslim-majority nations on the Arabian penisula with a
long history of hostility toward each other. However,
both nations are battling al-Qaida rebels, and both have
concerns about the growing influence of Shiite-majority
Iran and its growing influence in the Arab world. Yemen
has battled a local Shiite insurgency (called the Houthi
Rebellion or the Saadah Insurgency), in the northernmost
region of the country near the Saudi border.

As the Shiite rebellion in Yemen grew, and appeared to
be receiving aid from Saudi Arabia’s rival, Iran, the
Saudis in turn aided the Yemeni government. The Yemeni
rebels launched an incursion into Saudi Arabia in early
November, and a Saudi soldier was killed by the so-called
al-Houthi rebels along the border on Novermber 4, 2009,
and on November 6, Saudi forces openly intervened in the
Yemeni war with air strikes near the border and artillery
fire on rebel positions inside Yemen.

Saudi officials reported that as of Nov. 8, Saudi
military casualties included three killed, 15 wounded,
and four missing. Saudi Arabia claimed to have regained
control Saudi territory seized by the Yemeni rebels the
week before. Smoke from airstrikes rose above the Jebel
al-Dukhan, a 6,600-foot tall mountain on the border
between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, near the town of
Al-Khubah.

video of a Saudi
warplane over Yemen border

 Web and News
Links on the Saudi-Yemen Border Wars:

http://www.historyguy.com/Saudi_Yemen_Border_Conflict_2009.htm

Saudi and Yemen battle Zaidi rebels–AFP, Nov. 8, 2009

Saudi Arabia says regains area seized by Yemen
rebels–Reuters, Nov. 8, 2009

Saudi
Forces Bomb Yemeni Rebels on Southern Border –Wall
Street Journal, Nov. 7, 2009 

Houthis
Capture Saudi Soldiers, Saudi Bombing Yemen for Third
Day–Nov. 6, 2009

CIA
Factbook on Country or
conflict
–Click
on the country name (Yemen) at this site.

Security
Incidents in Yemen, 1998–From
the Al-bab website.

Tiny
Voices Defy Child Marriage in
Yemen–June
29, 2008

Massive
protest in south Yemen–by
Jane Novak, for the Long War Journal, May 27,
2008

Yemen’s
Intifada–by
Jane Novak, for the Long War Journal, January 2,
2008

George Stanley McChrystal (b. August, 14, 1954)
General Stanley A. McChrystal is an American army general who was named the commander of allied forces in Afghanistan, and assumed command of those forces in May of 2009.
General McChrystal is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. McChyrstal is a Green Beret and an Army Ranger, as well as a veteran commander in Special Operations, also known as “Black Ops.”
McChrystal served in Afghanistan as chief of staff of the military operations in 2001 and 2002. He also commanded the 75th Ranger Regiment and served tours in Saudi Arabia during the Persian Gulf War in 1991.
Forces under General McChrystal’s command found and captured Saddam Hussein and with tracking and killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al-Qaida in Mesopotamia (al-Qaida in Iraq).
General McChrystal replaced General David McKiernan…

http://www.historyguy.com/biofiles/mcchrystal_stanley_general.htm

American Special Forces attacked vehicles in Somalia carrying members of al-Qaida’s Somalia and Kenya branch on September 14, 2009. The dead included Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, wanted for the 2002 car bombing of a beach resort in Kenya and an attempt to shoot down an Israeli airliner. He was a leader of the local al-Qaida branch. Nabhan was a 30-year old Kenyan who is suspected of being behind the 2002 attacks in Kenya ttargeting Israelis. Ten Kenyans and three Israelis died in the bombing of an Israeli-owned hotel in Mombasa. Ground-to-air missiles were fired at the Israeli airliner as it took off from the city’s airport but missed the jet. Nabhan is believed to be one of those who fired a missile. He later escaped in Somalia, which is a largly lawless nation with a strong al-Qaida presence.

Previous American attacks on al-Qaida in Somalia involved missile attacks which were relatively imprecise, and created casualties among Somali civilians. This attack was carried out by helicopters which fired on the vehicles. Witnesses reported that after the helicopter attack concluded, American troops rappelled to the ground, collected the dead and wounded, and flew off. One Somali official said that the attack produced five dead.

The last confirmed American troop presence in Somalia was in 1993, during the Battle of Mogadishu. When Ethiopia invaded Somali in 2005 and 2006, some reports indicated that small numbers of U.S. troops accompanied the Ethiopians, searching for al-Qaida leaders.

See http://www.historyguy.com/special_forces_attack_al-qaida_somalia.htm

On April 22, 2009, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton referred to the military advance of the Pakistani Taliban out of the Swat Valley that has been ceded to them by the weak Pakistani government by stating that this situation in Pakistan formed an “existential threat” to Pakistan and a “mortal threat” to the world, and by extension, to the United States.  She also called on Pakistanis to resist their government’s policy of surrendering national territory to the Islamic extremists.

Tough words, but it remains to be seen if Clinton and the Obama Administration of which she is a part, really have the gumption to truly address this issue.  The Pakistani civilian government seems incapable or unwilling to confront the Taliban in the border areas.  The Taliban (and their al-Qaida allies), rightly see this as weakness on Islamabad’s part, and are pressing their advantage.  It is well known that the Pakistani military and secret services still aid the Taliban in its fight against Allied forces in Afghanistan (see http://warandconflictjournal.com/2008/06/pakistan-aids-taliban-still/).  The military is known to still consider India as its number one foe, and it is reported that important leaders of the military and intelligence services sympathize to some point with the Islamicists in the border regions.   

Clinton is right that the Taliban advances pose a grave threat to Pakistan.  If, by some means, the Taliban or some other radical Islamic group seizes control, or at least weakens the central government enough that the nation falls into true chaos or collapse, then the U.S., Britain, the other NATO allies, and, of course, India, all have to make an important decision.  Pakistan is too large to be allowed to fall into “Failed State” status.  Its nuclear arsenal is far too deadly to fall to ilk like the Taliban or al-Qaida.  It is hard to imagine India standing by as its old, but dangerous enemy becomes perhaps more dangerous through the unpredictability of chaos. 

So, the civilized world must decide what is to be done.  Stop the Taliban now, or wait and deal with the detritus of failed policies after it is far too late.  Pakistan is the “Sick Man of South Asia,” and like the old Ottoman Empire, it is far too large and dangerous to let it fall apart without major consequences for the entire region and the world.

President Obama’s Afghanistan Strategy (2009)
 On March 27, 2009, President Obama, flanked by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, announced his new strategy toward the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Below are the video of the President’s announcement and the text of President Obama’s announcement.  To see this page, go to:  http://www.historyguy.com/obama_afghanistan_strategy_2009.htm

The Iraq War began on March 19, 2003 with the U.S.-British invasion of Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship.  As the 6th anniversary of that invasion passes, U.S. war deaths reach 4,260.  British deaths are holding at 179 deaths.

For more information: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/03/22/america/Iraq-US-Deaths.php

As of Saturday, March 21, 2009, at least 4,260 members of the U.S. military had died in the Iraq war since it began in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count.

The figure includes eight military civilians killed in action. At least 3,425 military personnel died as a result of hostile action, according to the military’s numbers.

The AP count is one fewer than the Defense Department’s tally, last updated Friday at 10 a.m. EDT.

The British military has reported 179 deaths; Italy, 33; Ukraine, 18; Poland, 21; Bulgaria, 13; Spain, 11; Denmark, seven; El Salvador, five; Slovakia, four; Latvia and Georgia, three each; Estonia, Netherlands, Thailand and Romania, two each; and Australia, Hungary, Kazakhstan and South Korea, one death each.

Source: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/03/22/america/Iraq-US-Deaths.php

Analysis:  Ethiopia’s war in Somalia continues to resemble a dusty version of Vietnam, or an African version of Iraq.  Unlike the U.S. though, Ethiopia does not have the financial or military resources to "Surge" in Somalia as the U.S. has done (with apparent success) in Iraq.  How is Ethiopia paying for this war, anyway?

Islamic Insurgents Briefly Capture Somali Military Airfield

By VOA
News

25 January 2008

Reports from Somalia say Islamic insurgents
briefly captured the nation’s largest military airfield Friday, killing
two soldiers and escaping with stolen weapons.

Somali army officials and witnesses say militants attacked the
airport at Baledogle, about 100 kilometers south of the capital,
Mogadishu.  They say the militants relinquished control after seizing
weapons that were stored there.

Fighters with the al-Shabaab Islamic rebel group took credit for the attack on local radio.

Islamist insurgents have been battling the Somali government and
allied Ethiopian troops for the past year.  The fighting has killed
thousands and prompted an estimated 600,000 more to flee Mogadishu.

On Wednesday, militants fired mortar rounds near the presidential
palace about the same time that African Union Peace and Security
Commissioner Sa’id Djinnit met with Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein.

Djinnit presented Somali leaders with a four-point AU peace plan
aimed at stopping the fighting.  The plan includes a call for greater
international involvement in peacekeeping operations.

Djinnit said the 1,800 AU peacekeepers in Mogadishu are doing a
"wonderful job."  But he accused the international community of
abandoning Somalia.  Djinnit urged the U.N. Security Council to
re-establish a peacekeeping mission.

Somalia has been without an effective central government since 1991,
when warlords overthrew dictator Mohamad Siad Barre.  A number of
factions have been fighting each other for control while a transitional
government, set up ahead of scheduled elections, tries to assert its
authority

Analysis:  The U.S. is probably getting ready to cross the border to go after al-Qaida and the Taliban, but is making all of the requisite polite motions toward Pakistan’s soveriegnty first.  Don’t forget that the Bush/Cheney Administration will be out of office in less than a year, and they don’t know who or what will replace them in the Commander-in-Chief’s position.  Many analysts have harped on the possiblity they may attack Iran before they go, but more likely, in the view of the War and Conflict Journal, is a major push to crush the Islamist foe in Pakistan before next January.  And, if they find Osama bin Laden while in Pakistan, all the better.

U.S.
Troops ‘Ready’ to Aid Pakistan–Washington Post, January 25,
2008

The Pentagon is "ready, willing and able" to send U.S. troops to
conduct joint combat operations with Pakistan’s military against
al-Qaeda sanctuaries in Pakistan’s tribal areas, Defense Secretary
Robert M. Gates said yesterday.

The U.S. military is also beginning to construct as many as eight
coordination centers along the Afghan-Pakistani border that will be
staffed by officers from the three countries to more closely share
intelligence and conduct combat operations, according to Maj. Gen.
David Rodriguez, the top U.S. commander for eastern Afghanistan.

The first border center is being built at Torkham Gate in
Afghanistan, a key crossing near the Khyber Pass and about 30 miles
from the Pakistani city of Peshawar, Rodriguez said.

Cross-border attacks into eastern Afghanistan have dropped by more
than 40 percent in the past three months, compared with the same
period last winter, as Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters increasingly
wage war on the Pakistani government, according to Rodriguez and a
U.S. military review of border incidents.

Suicide bombings increased more than tenfold in Pakistan — from
five in 2006 to 60 last year — while they remained relatively
constant in eastern Afghanistan, according to the U.S. military data.
"Insurgents are focusing more on gains and expansion opportunities in
Pakistan," the assessment stated.

Gates and Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff, left little doubt yesterday that they believe U.S. troops –
whether in combat or as trainers — can bolster the efforts of
Pakistan’s military in the rugged and lawless Federally Administered
Tribal Areas, where U.S. officials say about 700 Pakistani troops
have been killed battling al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters.

"If asked to assist, I think we could do a lot," Mullen said at a
Pentagon news briefing.

Gates said that the possible joint combat operations, likely to
involve small teams of U.S. troops, are a topic of "ongoing dialogue"
with Pakistan’s leaders and that U.S. troops would join in the
fighting at Pakistan’s request.

"They have not fully thought through exactly how they intend to
proceed and their strategy going forward," Gates said. "I expect that
that will happen."

Gates said al-Qaeda has allied with other extremists in the border
area, possibly including Baitullah Mehsud, a tribal leader linked to
the Taliban. "They clearly are much more active and working with
other people," he said.

Rodriguez said Pakistani military leaders are increasingly willing
to cooperate in operations on either side of the border. There is "a
growing realization amongst all of them, that everybody needs to do
more together," he said at a Pentagon briefing this week.

Last year, the U.S. military in Afghanistan established a shared
computer link with the Pakistani military’s headquarters and set up
high-frequency radio communications to coordinate cross-border
operations. It also surveyed Pakistani, Afghan and U.S. border
positions, and stepped up training of Afghan border police.

Some war casualty figures were released by a human-rights group in Somalia. The figures are unverified, but, in the War and Conflict Journal’s opinion, are not outside the realm of possibility. Mogadishu has seen heavy combat between the insurgent Islamic forces and the heavily-equipped Ethiopian military. Also, the insurgents are using Iraq-style bombing techniques and tactics, which tend to inflict large numbers of casualties among civilians.

According to Somalia’s Elman Human Rights group, 5,960 civilian fatalities occurred in the capital of Mogadishu in 2007. Also, the group claims that 7,980 civilians were wounded and over 700,000 displaced from their homes due to the continuing war between the Somali government and the Islamic insurgency. Ethiopia is aiding the Somali government; providing troops and air power to fight the insurgents. In December of 2006, Ethiopian forces, with American aid, invaded Islamic forces-held Somali territory and overthrew the extremist Islamic regime and helped install a pro-Western government in its place.

Source:

Somali group: 5,960 killed this year–Associated Press, December 2, 2007