War and Conflict Journal

December 7, 2009, marks the 68^th anniversary of the surprise Japanese attack on the U.S. military bases in and around Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.  This attack launched America into World War Two and literally changed the course of history.  Without being attacked first, it is highly unlikely that the U.S. would have entered World War Two.  By attacking the United States, Japan thought it would cripple or destroy the U.S. Pacific fleet, thereby preventing American forces from stopping Japan’s Asian blitzkrieg.  In the days and weeks following the Pearl Harbor attack, Japanese forces attacked American, British, Canadian, Australian, New Zealander, and Dutch forces as Japan seized the Philippines, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaya, the Dutch East Indies (now Indonesia), and New Guinea.  American islands at Wake and Guam were also attacked and occupied. 

Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor, Dec. 7, 1941

Believing that America had suffered a crippling blow, Hitler and Mussolini also declared war on the United States, thereby bringing American power into the war against the Nazis and the Fascists.  As history now shows, America’s entry into World War Two ensured Allied victory, as the Nazis and Fascists were destroyed in Europe, and Japan fell under the power of two atomic bombs some four years after their ill-fated and ill-advised assault on Pearl Harbor.

For more information, go to: http://www.historyguy.com/battle_of_pearl_harbor.html

George Stanley McChrystal (b. August, 14, 1954)
General Stanley A. McChrystal is an American army general who was named the commander of allied forces in Afghanistan, and assumed command of those forces in May of 2009.
General McChrystal is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. McChyrstal is a Green Beret and an Army Ranger, as well as a veteran commander in Special Operations, also known as “Black Ops.”
McChrystal served in Afghanistan as chief of staff of the military operations in 2001 and 2002. He also commanded the 75th Ranger Regiment and served tours in Saudi Arabia during the Persian Gulf War in 1991.
Forces under General McChrystal’s command found and captured Saddam Hussein and with tracking and killing Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al-Qaida in Mesopotamia (al-Qaida in Iraq).
General McChrystal replaced General David McKiernan…

http://www.historyguy.com/biofiles/mcchrystal_stanley_general.htm

American Special Forces attacked vehicles in Somalia carrying members of al-Qaida’s Somalia and Kenya branch on September 14, 2009. The dead included Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, wanted for the 2002 car bombing of a beach resort in Kenya and an attempt to shoot down an Israeli airliner. He was a leader of the local al-Qaida branch. Nabhan was a 30-year old Kenyan who is suspected of being behind the 2002 attacks in Kenya ttargeting Israelis. Ten Kenyans and three Israelis died in the bombing of an Israeli-owned hotel in Mombasa. Ground-to-air missiles were fired at the Israeli airliner as it took off from the city’s airport but missed the jet. Nabhan is believed to be one of those who fired a missile. He later escaped in Somalia, which is a largly lawless nation with a strong al-Qaida presence.

Previous American attacks on al-Qaida in Somalia involved missile attacks which were relatively imprecise, and created casualties among Somali civilians. This attack was carried out by helicopters which fired on the vehicles. Witnesses reported that after the helicopter attack concluded, American troops rappelled to the ground, collected the dead and wounded, and flew off. One Somali official said that the attack produced five dead.

The last confirmed American troop presence in Somalia was in 1993, during the Battle of Mogadishu. When Ethiopia invaded Somali in 2005 and 2006, some reports indicated that small numbers of U.S. troops accompanied the Ethiopians, searching for al-Qaida leaders.

See http://www.historyguy.com/special_forces_attack_al-qaida_somalia.htm

Iran Wars page updated due to the rising tensions surrounding the disputed Iranian Presidential election and the possible scenarios involving an Israeli attack on Iran in the near future.

Go to: http://www.historyguy.com/wars_of_iran.htm

for more information on the military history of Persia and Iran, and the military history of this ancient nation.

North Korea continues to make threatening announcements and conduct threatening actions since the detonation a nuclear device on May 23.  Since conducting that nuclear test, the Communist dictatorship has launched at least six short-range missiles into the sea, and made very belligerent, (even for North Korea!) threats and comments.  On May 27, 2009, North Korea threatened to attack South Korea if ships from the North are searched as part a U.S.-led effort to stop vessels suspected of carrying missiles or weapons of mass destruction (WOMDs). North Korea also declared the truce that ended the Korean War in 1953 as invalid.  South Korea decided to join the international effort to search North Korean vessels suspected of carrying missiles or WOMDs.  South Korea had refrained from doing so in the past, but with the Northern nuclear test on May 23, the situation changed and the South decided to send a message to the North.

Also unusual in the world reaction to this North Korean nuclear test, is the public condemnation of the North by the closest things it has to friends; China and Russia.

Many analysts are saying that this is mere saber-rattling by Kim Jong-Il, just as in the past, and that things will quiet down, especially if the world tries to pay the North off to keep quiet for a while.  While that is the most likely scenario, given past history, it should also be noted that absolute dictatorships often make very bad decisions in the case of war and peace.  Hitler made several very unwise decisions that led to the destruction of Germany.  Saddam Hussein thought Iran would be a soft target in the throes of its violent revolution, only to end up with an eight-year war and hundreds of thousands of dead.  And Saddam also thought he could gobble up Kuwait without any fuss.  Oh, and he really did not expect George W. Bush to invade in 2003.  And those Generals in Argentina who believed the British would never fight for a few cold, remote islands in the South Atlantic.  In each case, the dictators in question ended up out of power, and, in the cases of Hitler and Saddam, ended up dead because they miscalculated the results of starting wars.

The point here is, that while the world thinks that the North Korean leaders will not start a fight they cannot win; they may actually think they CAN win.  Remember, Obama is a new president, untested in the eyes of much of the world, and the U.S. IS in the middle of two major wars.  When the North Koreans attacked and seized the American ship, the USS Pueblo in the late 1960s, the U.S. was in the middle of the Vietnam War.  North Korea gambled correctly, and no American military action against North Korea took place as a result.  If Kim Jong-Il is looking at history as a guide, he may be looking at how his father embarrassed the Americans, not how Hitler, Saddam, and the Argentine Junta ended up!

For more information on this topic, go to:

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_nuclear_crisis.htm

and

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_border_conflicts.htm

President Obama’s Afghanistan Strategy (2009)
 On March 27, 2009, President Obama, flanked by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, announced his new strategy toward the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Below are the video of the President’s announcement and the text of President Obama’s announcement.  To see this page, go to:  http://www.historyguy.com/obama_afghanistan_strategy_2009.htm

The Iraq War began on March 19, 2003 with the U.S.-British invasion of Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship.  As the 6th anniversary of that invasion passes, U.S. war deaths reach 4,260.  British deaths are holding at 179 deaths.

For more information: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/03/22/america/Iraq-US-Deaths.php

As of Saturday, March 21, 2009, at least 4,260 members of the U.S. military had died in the Iraq war since it began in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count.

The figure includes eight military civilians killed in action. At least 3,425 military personnel died as a result of hostile action, according to the military’s numbers.

The AP count is one fewer than the Defense Department’s tally, last updated Friday at 10 a.m. EDT.

The British military has reported 179 deaths; Italy, 33; Ukraine, 18; Poland, 21; Bulgaria, 13; Spain, 11; Denmark, seven; El Salvador, five; Slovakia, four; Latvia and Georgia, three each; Estonia, Netherlands, Thailand and Romania, two each; and Australia, Hungary, Kazakhstan and South Korea, one death each.

Source: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/03/22/america/Iraq-US-Deaths.php

The Israeli military launched an airstrike on Hamas-ruled Gaza early Wednesday, Nov. 5 after Israeli troops battled Hamas militants after Hamas fired mortars rounds into Israel. Six Palestinians were killed in the renewed fighting. This was the first battle since a June truce between Israel and Hamas brought relative peace to the region.

The Israeli army said the battles broke out late Tuesday, Nov. 4, after Israeli forces found a tunnel in central Gaza built by Hamas in order to abduct Israeli soldiers. A Israeli special army unit destroyed the tunnel. One Palestinian was killed in the gunbattles at the tunnel.

The timing may be coincidental, but it is interesting that this clash took place on the same night that the American Presidential campaign concluded with a victory by Democrat Barack Obama.  Many people worry about a possible Israeli-American strike at the Hamas/Hezbollah/Syria/Iran alliance in the waning days of Republican control of the White House.  Might this small battle lead to more clashes on other borders, with a possible Iranian and/or Syrian response?

This situation bears watching…

While the war itself is not yet over, several points can be examined in how this conflict unfolded and the early course of the war, as well as some apparent consequences of this Russia-Georgia war:

–It now appears clear that Georgia was duped into attacking South Ossetia and that the Russians had laid a trap to make the Georgians fire the first shots, thereby letting Russia claim to be pushing back an aggressor. According to Stratfor, a private American intelligence company, Russian forces were pre-positioned near the border, therefore more able to respond quickly to attack the Georgians when they moved into South Ossetia on August 8. While the timing of the Georgian attack took the Russians by surprise, their inability to seize the South Ossetian capital and thus their delay in pushing on to the strategically important Roki Tunnel, allowed Russia to pour troops into Ossetia and force back the Georgian military.

–The early Russian bombing campaign was critical to Russia’s rout of the Georgian military. Russia has obviously learned from other recent conflicts, including the Kosovo War, their own Chechen Wars, and the American Wars against Iraq in the 1990s as well as the current Iraq War. In those conflicts, swift and overpowering use of air power against enemy military facilities, air bases, and transportation and logistical targets disrupted the defender’s plans and enabled the invading forces a powerful advantage.

–Georgia assumed that because of their cooperation with America in Iraq, and their application to join NATO, America would be more proactive in helping Georgia against Russia. This appears to have been foolish and naive wishful thinking. With major American military assets tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan, and with a possible Iran War looming, the United States is in no position to risk war with Russia.

–Poland, which suffered from Russian invasions, massacres, and depredations multiple times in the 20th century, came to a quick agreement with the United States that will place an American missile defense base in Poland. This long-delayed agreement was reached by the Americans and Poles in an obvious response to what the Poles see as Russian aggression in Georgia.

–President George W. Bush, while eager to force democratic change in relatively weak Iraq and Afghanistan, is clearly not eager to defend a more-or-less existing democratic regime, as in Georgia, against an obvious (and relatively powerful) non-democratic aggressor.

–A corollary to the above statement is that America is dangerously overextended through numerous global commitments (not all of these commitments are wars) that limit the America’s ability to respond to new conflicts and challenges as they occur.  Case in point, even if the U.S. were willing to place American ground forces in harm’s way, even as a blocking force, they would not be able to assert themselves with any numbers or resources due to the Iraq and Afghan wars, as well as other commitments in Korea, Kosovo, and elsewhere.

–Most likely, Iran, North Korea, China, and other possible future aggressors are likely taking notes on America’s apparent fear of engaging in a possible conflict with a powerful nation, even to defend a close ally. 

–America’s smaller and more vulnerable allies should also pay attention to this abandonment of an American ally and fear the potential threats on the horizon and the likely American response, or non-response.  Taiwan should update their scenarios of a Communist Chinese attack and decide what to do if President Bush (or his successor) help them the same way he is aiding Georgia.

For regularly updated information on the ongoing war between Russia and Georgia, visit: The Georgia-Russia War at Historyguy.com

Warfare broke out again in the Caucusus region of the former Soviet Union, as Georgian government forces attacked the separatist region of South Ossetia with ground forces and warplanes. South Ossetia broke away from Georgia in a violent rebellion from 1991 to 1992. In 1992, a cease-fire was arranged which effectively established South Ossetian independence, with Russia siding with the Ossetian rebels. Clashes between Georgia and South Ossetia broke out over the past week, killing at least 20. That flare-up of violence stopped with a Russian-brokered cease-fire, but now is ended.

Georgia has continually vowed to bring South Ossetia back into the fold, and now appears to be backing up that rhetoric. Georgia, which is allied with the United States and is seeking membership in NATO, risks Russian intervention.

Links:

http://www.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUSL8718565._CH_.2400

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/country_profiles/3797729.stm