War and Conflict Journal

American Special Forces attacked vehicles in Somalia carrying members of al-Qaida’s Somalia and Kenya branch on September 14, 2009. The dead included Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, wanted for the 2002 car bombing of a beach resort in Kenya and an attempt to shoot down an Israeli airliner. He was a leader of the local al-Qaida branch. Nabhan was a 30-year old Kenyan who is suspected of being behind the 2002 attacks in Kenya ttargeting Israelis. Ten Kenyans and three Israelis died in the bombing of an Israeli-owned hotel in Mombasa. Ground-to-air missiles were fired at the Israeli airliner as it took off from the city’s airport but missed the jet. Nabhan is believed to be one of those who fired a missile. He later escaped in Somalia, which is a largly lawless nation with a strong al-Qaida presence.

Previous American attacks on al-Qaida in Somalia involved missile attacks which were relatively imprecise, and created casualties among Somali civilians. This attack was carried out by helicopters which fired on the vehicles. Witnesses reported that after the helicopter attack concluded, American troops rappelled to the ground, collected the dead and wounded, and flew off. One Somali official said that the attack produced five dead.

The last confirmed American troop presence in Somalia was in 1993, during the Battle of Mogadishu. When Ethiopia invaded Somali in 2005 and 2006, some reports indicated that small numbers of U.S. troops accompanied the Ethiopians, searching for al-Qaida leaders.

See http://www.historyguy.com/special_forces_attack_al-qaida_somalia.htm

Iran Wars page updated due to the rising tensions surrounding the disputed Iranian Presidential election and the possible scenarios involving an Israeli attack on Iran in the near future.

Go to: http://www.historyguy.com/wars_of_iran.htm

for more information on the military history of Persia and Iran, and the military history of this ancient nation.

North Korea continues to make threatening announcements and conduct threatening actions since the detonation a nuclear device on May 23.  Since conducting that nuclear test, the Communist dictatorship has launched at least six short-range missiles into the sea, and made very belligerent, (even for North Korea!) threats and comments.  On May 27, 2009, North Korea threatened to attack South Korea if ships from the North are searched as part a U.S.-led effort to stop vessels suspected of carrying missiles or weapons of mass destruction (WOMDs). North Korea also declared the truce that ended the Korean War in 1953 as invalid.  South Korea decided to join the international effort to search North Korean vessels suspected of carrying missiles or WOMDs.  South Korea had refrained from doing so in the past, but with the Northern nuclear test on May 23, the situation changed and the South decided to send a message to the North.

Also unusual in the world reaction to this North Korean nuclear test, is the public condemnation of the North by the closest things it has to friends; China and Russia.

Many analysts are saying that this is mere saber-rattling by Kim Jong-Il, just as in the past, and that things will quiet down, especially if the world tries to pay the North off to keep quiet for a while.  While that is the most likely scenario, given past history, it should also be noted that absolute dictatorships often make very bad decisions in the case of war and peace.  Hitler made several very unwise decisions that led to the destruction of Germany.  Saddam Hussein thought Iran would be a soft target in the throes of its violent revolution, only to end up with an eight-year war and hundreds of thousands of dead.  And Saddam also thought he could gobble up Kuwait without any fuss.  Oh, and he really did not expect George W. Bush to invade in 2003.  And those Generals in Argentina who believed the British would never fight for a few cold, remote islands in the South Atlantic.  In each case, the dictators in question ended up out of power, and, in the cases of Hitler and Saddam, ended up dead because they miscalculated the results of starting wars.

The point here is, that while the world thinks that the North Korean leaders will not start a fight they cannot win; they may actually think they CAN win.  Remember, Obama is a new president, untested in the eyes of much of the world, and the U.S. IS in the middle of two major wars.  When the North Koreans attacked and seized the American ship, the USS Pueblo in the late 1960s, the U.S. was in the middle of the Vietnam War.  North Korea gambled correctly, and no American military action against North Korea took place as a result.  If Kim Jong-Il is looking at history as a guide, he may be looking at how his father embarrassed the Americans, not how Hitler, Saddam, and the Argentine Junta ended up!

For more information on this topic, go to:

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_nuclear_crisis.htm

and

http://www.historyguy.com/korean_border_conflicts.htm

President Obama’s Afghanistan Strategy (2009)
 On March 27, 2009, President Obama, flanked by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, announced his new strategy toward the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Below are the video of the President’s announcement and the text of President Obama’s announcement.  To see this page, go to:  http://www.historyguy.com/obama_afghanistan_strategy_2009.htm

The Iraq War began on March 19, 2003 with the U.S.-British invasion of Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship.  As the 6th anniversary of that invasion passes, U.S. war deaths reach 4,260.  British deaths are holding at 179 deaths.

For more information: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/03/22/america/Iraq-US-Deaths.php

As of Saturday, March 21, 2009, at least 4,260 members of the U.S. military had died in the Iraq war since it began in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count.

The figure includes eight military civilians killed in action. At least 3,425 military personnel died as a result of hostile action, according to the military’s numbers.

The AP count is one fewer than the Defense Department’s tally, last updated Friday at 10 a.m. EDT.

The British military has reported 179 deaths; Italy, 33; Ukraine, 18; Poland, 21; Bulgaria, 13; Spain, 11; Denmark, seven; El Salvador, five; Slovakia, four; Latvia and Georgia, three each; Estonia, Netherlands, Thailand and Romania, two each; and Australia, Hungary, Kazakhstan and South Korea, one death each.

Source: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/03/22/america/Iraq-US-Deaths.php

The Israeli military launched an airstrike on Hamas-ruled Gaza early Wednesday, Nov. 5 after Israeli troops battled Hamas militants after Hamas fired mortars rounds into Israel. Six Palestinians were killed in the renewed fighting. This was the first battle since a June truce between Israel and Hamas brought relative peace to the region.

The Israeli army said the battles broke out late Tuesday, Nov. 4, after Israeli forces found a tunnel in central Gaza built by Hamas in order to abduct Israeli soldiers. A Israeli special army unit destroyed the tunnel. One Palestinian was killed in the gunbattles at the tunnel.

The timing may be coincidental, but it is interesting that this clash took place on the same night that the American Presidential campaign concluded with a victory by Democrat Barack Obama.  Many people worry about a possible Israeli-American strike at the Hamas/Hezbollah/Syria/Iran alliance in the waning days of Republican control of the White House.  Might this small battle lead to more clashes on other borders, with a possible Iranian and/or Syrian response?

This situation bears watching…

While the war itself is not yet over, several points can be examined in how this conflict unfolded and the early course of the war, as well as some apparent consequences of this Russia-Georgia war:

–It now appears clear that Georgia was duped into attacking South Ossetia and that the Russians had laid a trap to make the Georgians fire the first shots, thereby letting Russia claim to be pushing back an aggressor. According to Stratfor, a private American intelligence company, Russian forces were pre-positioned near the border, therefore more able to respond quickly to attack the Georgians when they moved into South Ossetia on August 8. While the timing of the Georgian attack took the Russians by surprise, their inability to seize the South Ossetian capital and thus their delay in pushing on to the strategically important Roki Tunnel, allowed Russia to pour troops into Ossetia and force back the Georgian military.

–The early Russian bombing campaign was critical to Russia’s rout of the Georgian military. Russia has obviously learned from other recent conflicts, including the Kosovo War, their own Chechen Wars, and the American Wars against Iraq in the 1990s as well as the current Iraq War. In those conflicts, swift and overpowering use of air power against enemy military facilities, air bases, and transportation and logistical targets disrupted the defender’s plans and enabled the invading forces a powerful advantage.

–Georgia assumed that because of their cooperation with America in Iraq, and their application to join NATO, America would be more proactive in helping Georgia against Russia. This appears to have been foolish and naive wishful thinking. With major American military assets tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan, and with a possible Iran War looming, the United States is in no position to risk war with Russia.

–Poland, which suffered from Russian invasions, massacres, and depredations multiple times in the 20th century, came to a quick agreement with the United States that will place an American missile defense base in Poland. This long-delayed agreement was reached by the Americans and Poles in an obvious response to what the Poles see as Russian aggression in Georgia.

–President George W. Bush, while eager to force democratic change in relatively weak Iraq and Afghanistan, is clearly not eager to defend a more-or-less existing democratic regime, as in Georgia, against an obvious (and relatively powerful) non-democratic aggressor.

–A corollary to the above statement is that America is dangerously overextended through numerous global commitments (not all of these commitments are wars) that limit the America’s ability to respond to new conflicts and challenges as they occur.  Case in point, even if the U.S. were willing to place American ground forces in harm’s way, even as a blocking force, they would not be able to assert themselves with any numbers or resources due to the Iraq and Afghan wars, as well as other commitments in Korea, Kosovo, and elsewhere.

–Most likely, Iran, North Korea, China, and other possible future aggressors are likely taking notes on America’s apparent fear of engaging in a possible conflict with a powerful nation, even to defend a close ally. 

–America’s smaller and more vulnerable allies should also pay attention to this abandonment of an American ally and fear the potential threats on the horizon and the likely American response, or non-response.  Taiwan should update their scenarios of a Communist Chinese attack and decide what to do if President Bush (or his successor) help them the same way he is aiding Georgia.

For regularly updated information on the ongoing war between Russia and Georgia, visit: The Georgia-Russia War at Historyguy.com

Warfare broke out again in the Caucusus region of the former Soviet Union, as Georgian government forces attacked the separatist region of South Ossetia with ground forces and warplanes. South Ossetia broke away from Georgia in a violent rebellion from 1991 to 1992. In 1992, a cease-fire was arranged which effectively established South Ossetian independence, with Russia siding with the Ossetian rebels. Clashes between Georgia and South Ossetia broke out over the past week, killing at least 20. That flare-up of violence stopped with a Russian-brokered cease-fire, but now is ended.

Georgia has continually vowed to bring South Ossetia back into the fold, and now appears to be backing up that rhetoric. Georgia, which is allied with the United States and is seeking membership in NATO, risks Russian intervention.

Links:

http://www.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUSL8718565._CH_.2400

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/country_profiles/3797729.stm

Reports out of Pakistan’s continually rebellious southwestern Baluchistan region indicate that recent fighting between Baluch insurgents and Pakistan’s Frontier Corps in the Dera Bugti area claimed up to 43 lives, broken down as 33 dead insurgents and nine members of the Pakistani paramilitary Corps.

Baluchistan rebels seek independence, and have risen up against the Pakistani central government numerous times since Pakistan’s independence from Britain in the late 1940s.

Source:

Fighting flares in Pakistan’s Baluchistan; 43 killed--Reuters, Jul 21, 2008

Eritrea and Djibouti engaged in a military clash along their mutual border over the course of three days, June 10- 13, 2008, resulting in the deaths of nine Djibouti soldiers, and the wounding of around 60 others. Some reports indicate that the French Foreign Legion in Djibouti provided logistical and medical aid to the Djibouti forces during the battles.

Previously, in mid-April, 2008, Djibouti accused Eritrea of sending troops across the border and digging trenches and defensive emplacements inside Djibouti.

Tensions between these Horn of Africa neighbors have been escalating, in large part due to the fact that Djibouti is allied to Ethiopia, France, and the United States.  Ethiopia and Eritrea have fought two bloody wars, and maintain large military forces on their mutual border as they continue to view each other as foes.  Also, Eritrea has been accused of aiding Islamist forces in Somalia, where they have fought against intervening Ethiopian and American forces since late 2006.

The 13th Demi-Brigade of the French Foreign Legion, with 2,850 troops, shares a military base, called Camp Lemonier, with the Combined Joint Task Force Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) of the United States Central Command, since 2002.

Using their base at Camp Lemonier, American forces launched a Predator drone which flew over neighboring Yemen in 2002 which fired a Hellfire missile, killing al-Qaida operatives Abu Ali al-Harithi and Ahmed Hijazi, along with four other suspected terrorists. al-Harithi was believed to be a leader in the attack on the USS Cole in Yemeni waters in October of 2000. American forces based in Djibouti at Camp Lemonier also launched missions against Islamist forces in Somalia during the Ethiopian intervention which began in December of 2006.

Links:

http://www.eritreadaily.net/News0108/article0806141.htm

http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL12617339

http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnL11187409.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Ras_Doumeira_border_crisis

http://www.historyguy.com/eritrea-djibouti_2008_war.html